There may be some rain on the way.
Let's hope one of the wetter solutions materializes so we can call an end to the fire season and the smoke.
From the NWS Area Forecast Discussion LOX.
the basic forecast for Friday through Sunday remains the same a weak system will rotate into northern California Friday dragging a weak front through the central coast then a second stronger frontal systems will move through sometime Saturday and Sunday with an option of some instability showers lingering Monday. The GFS and ec are in good agreement as are the GFS ensembles at least for the synoptic patterns.
Before the rain there is the issue of the marine layer Thursday night and Friday the approaching trough and increasing will likely bring a deep marine layer deep into the valleys. But there is a chance that all the middle and high level moisture will not allow any marine layer clouds to form.
The big forecast problem is the timing and the intensity of the two fronts. The models have been going back and forth on the timing... intensity...track and duration of both fronts. Current models are in a wetter stronger Mode very different from the weaker more to the north solution that the previous runs had. Precipitation ensembles still showing wild differences in the timing and amounts. Right now it looks like it is almost certain the central coast will see rain sometime from Friday to Sunday and it looks like areas south of Point Conception has a better chance. If the 12z runs can manage even a little continuity it will be time to up the probability of precipitation. Will begin
to get a better idea tonight when the 84 hour NAM solution will cover the Friday early Sat portion of the forecast. Model solutions are too variable to offer early rainfall amount predictions.