Update on forecast
Sorry I haven't posted an update, but I haven't been in the office since Friday. I wanted to get a good look at the latest models before I posted anything.
I guess the biggest news is that their is tremendous uncertainty with how this scenario evolves once the initial cold blast comes in Wednesday. The models are in 2 camps as far as placement of the upper-level low, and that difference is important. One thing that is pretty certain is it will turn sharply colder on Wednesday after the frontal passage, and most of Oklahoma (except the far east and southeast) will wake up to showers and temps 36-42 Thursday morning. It will likely be colder the further northwest you are in Oklahoma. There is even a chance of a rain/snow mix west of Ponca City. The temps will probably only rise 5-10 degrees on Thursday afternoon. It's going to be a cold, raw day.
The incertainty starts to show Thursday night. One camp of the models has the upper low up north near the Neb/Iowa border, while the other camp swings it further south into northeast Oklahoma/Arkansas. The more southward placement of the upper low keeps us colder overall with more showers well into the weekend. This is not good for warm afternoon temperatures, but will keep overnight lows from falling too far into the 30's due to clouds.
The more northern placement of the upper low means the clouds and showers will clear out quicker late Thursday or early Friday. Temps during the day would be warmer (but still well below normal), but less clouds overnight would mean temps could drop well down into the 30's. Frost would also be a possibility with this scenario.
For what it's worth, it's the usually more reliable European model that shows the more northern placement of the upper low. This gives me a little more confidence that this is how it could play out, but uncertainty is very high. Be prepared for 2-4 cold mornings with lows 35-40, especially the further north you are.