Hopefully it's right!
This post was edited by lat0403 on Mon, May 19, 14 at 11:58
I want to be a fly on the wall in Dawn's house. "Tim, the QPF says..."
Haha. This time it's going to be right!
Leslie, My experience with the QPF over the last 3 or 4 years is that it is "right" for us about 5% of the time. Generally we get only 10-30% of what it forecasts, although one memorable week earlier this year we got three times as much rain as it predicted.
I hope it is 100% right this time because it would put some badly needed rain where it is most needed, and by "most needed" what I really mean is desperately, desperately, desperately needed.
I saw a news article yesterday that talked about places in Texas that have a 90 day or less water supply. Some have less than a 45 day supply. It was so sad. When I clicked on the map for more details of individual cities, it was easy to conclude that it was only some water systems in each area, because the number of people affected was small compared to the population of some of those flagged areas.
After the wildfire in Hutchinson County, TX, last week that destroyed around 225 homes and numerous outbuildings near Fritch, I wondered if it was even possible for them to get enough rain this spring to drop their fire danger a lot. If this QPF is right, that would help much of the TX and OK panhandles a lot, though it already is too late to save the winter wheat.
Lisa, Ha, ha, ha. Tim lol'd when I read him your comment. Then I told him what the QPF showed for us, which is nothing special of course although any rain is good, and he just gave me that skeptical look without making any comment. Apparently he still doesn't want to hear what the QPF says, but I told him anyhow.
I'll link the "90 days" article. When the first guy they quoted in the story said he hadn't watered since September 2013, that really got my attention. Can y'all imagine?
Here is a link that might be useful: Texas Cities With 90 Days of Water, Or Less
I know we're probably not going to actually get 2+ inches of rain, but we never even get a forecast that looks like this. We're usually the light green area, if we're colored at all. So it's still nice to look at and dream of all the rain that's about to fall.
It would be horrible to have your water supply that low. I can understand it for anyone who's relying solely on well water, though.
i love looking at those maps...and hoping they come true :) It's all Dawn's fault. I never knew they existed until she started posting about them. Now it seems I'm glued to the QPF and the Mesonet maps!
That would be nice. They've already backed off of it. They're still calling for 3+ in SW Ok. Let's see how long before they change it again. This map has been giving false hope for quite some time now.
One inch would great. That would equal almost 2/3 of our total year to date rainfall. 3 inches would be just under one inch less than what we have received in our rain gauge in more than 12 months.
The European model
Here is a link that might be useful: Rainfall for Friday - Wednesday
This post was edited by LCDollar on Mon, May 19, 14 at 20:03
I like the European model.
The further out the models and forecasts, the less accurate, so I have more faith in a forecast that is for weather a day or two away than for weather 5 or 7 or 10 days out. You'll drive yourself nuts watching a forecast for next week's weather because it can change multiple times a day. My husband has the attitude that he'll believe the rain is gonna fall when he sees it with his own two eyes. I know his attitude is bad....it stems from me watching the QPF like a hawk in 2011. There was a point in August that year when the QPF showed us getting over 3" of rain in the 7-day, and that was really exciting because we'd only had a little under 11" for the whole year so far. We really got our hopes up. We were out fighting wildfires, structure fires, vehicle fires....you name it....night and day. Three inches of rain would have given us a few days' reprieve from fires. So, how much did we get? Nothing. Since then, the QPF has done nothing much but get our hopes up and not deliver 95% of the time, and that is why Tim doesn't even want to know what it says.
I will look at models that are 5 or 7 or 10 days out or whatever, but I don't put much faith in what they say, and for good reason. I don't know if the models have always performed this poorly or if the changing climate is making them less accurate than before, but you surely cannot base anything on what the QPF says 7 days in advance because it will let you down.
The surest way to make it rain is to set aside a week in which there is no rain forecast at all and make plans to paint the exterior of the house. Buy the paint. Clear the schedule. Get your spouse to take off a week's vacation from work so he can help you paint the house. That pretty much guarantees rain will pop up out of nowhere and you'll have a flood.
I think we should all assign ourselves different weeks to paint our houses....you think mother nature would figure out our plan?
If the weather models tend to agree with each other, and if they are consistent from run-to-run, then the probabilities are a lot better for that map. I don't think they agree with each other yet, but when the systems actually get over land (better data) instead of the pacific, the forecasts tend to get more accurate and agree with each other more.
Regardless, that specific forecast map has not looked that good for the far sw part of the state in the two years I have checked watched it, so at least the chances are better than in a long time.
Lisa, I don't know if Mother Nature would catch on or not. We could try it.
Apparently washing cars no longer makes it rain like it used to, so now we have to step up our game and start scheduling exterior house painting.....or maybe high school or college graduation ceremonies held outdoors---that used to always make it rain too.
Scott, We need rain in the worst possible way, which is why we probably won't get it. It seems like the more desperate we are for rain, the less likely that we'll get any.
Our local TV mets seem to think the chance of rain in our part of the state is pretty good for Monday, We'll see.
I miss the good old days when we'd get 3 or 4" in one day. This year we haven't even had 3 or 4" in one month.
As we drove across the Red River bridge, today, I couldn't help noticing there's more sand bar in the river channel than water. That's a problem, especially when there's some pretty large trees growing on the sandbars. Every week it looks less and less like a river.
I noticed today that the heavier portion of the rain is continuing to shift south and east.
Here is a link that might be useful:
We are extremely desperate here in the Texas Panhandle for moisture - especially the mid-section around the Amarillo area west to the state line and up through north of the Fritch area. Parts of the extreme northeastern panhandle has received some rain that we have not, but they still need moisture, also. Our pastures are grazed the shortest I have ever in my life seen. It will take 3-5 years for recovery of the pastures once we begin to receive our normal (~20"/year) rains again. Report is we are the driest we have ever been since the weather information has been recorded. One report stated we are 10% drier than we were at the end of the Great Dust Bowl. That's scary!
I feel terribly sorry for the residents of Fritch. Their first blow was loss of income from visitors due to the continuing decrease of water in Lake Meridith. Then to be hit by this devastating fire is just heartbreaking. We lost our house to fire when I was a sophomore in high school and remember all those things we lost that could not be replaced - pictures, things from grandparents and great grandparents, childhood keepsakes, etc. My heart and prayers go out to them as well as to ALL who desperately need the rain and the benefits it can bring.
I promise not to get out in the middle of I27 and do a naked "thankful" rain dance if we do get some moisture, but I can't promise I won't do one in the back yard where no one can see me...LOL!!
I keep wondering when the recovery begins for you folks in the Texas panhandle. I also keep wondering if one day we'll look back and realize the period y'all (and parts of western OK) are in now was the equivalent of the Dust Bowl, just not quite as dusty due to changes in land practices that help keep the dust from blowing quite as much now as it did then.
I cannot imagine what it is like for all the folks in Fritch right now. As news of the wildfire broke, I watched it like a hawk and kept hoping it wouldn't end up being as bad as it sounded. As it turned out, it was even worse than it sounded. My heart goes out to them as well. It used to be that the yearly wildfires that destroyed so many homes, towns, recreation areas and businesses were more of a west coast thing, but the last few years we have seen far too many of them in Texas and Oklahoma. Our first bad wildfire year here in our county was 2005, and they have recurred regularly most years since then.
You can go ahead and do whatever thankful dance you wish if you finally get rain and no one here is going to blame you. The odds are we'll get rain too about the same time you do and we'll be outside doing our own gratitude dances or rituals. I miss the simple things....sitting on the covered patio and watching rain fall, looking at a rainbow that has formed, or even just watching the frogs hop around from puddle to puddle.
I take out my water hose every couple of days and make puddles for all the little wildlife and I fill livestock water troughs and wading pools with water for the larger wild animals. It is humbling, sometimes, to see how grateful the animals are when they find the water. It makes me happy that I can do such a small thing to help them. It isn't unusual to glance out the window in the evening and see deer, cottontail rabbits, armadillos, squirrels, possums and even an occasional coon all peacefully assembled and drinking water. They're too busy trying to survive to fuss over who has jurisdiction over the watering hole.
Map looks good for us now! I'm going all in. Buying a new boat and washing both cars twice.
I am buying flood insurance and then starting on sandbags. The map is a lovely deep purple.
The map is different every time I look at it, but we've been pretty consistently in 2+ inches. Hopefully it's right, but I won't be here to see it anyway. I'm counting on it to rain while I'm gone so nobody has to water for me. I just need it to not hail as I'm pretty sure I'm the only one who cares about my plants enough to cover them.
car washing then rain after seems to never fail for me. Ill wash mine this weekend to help yall out.
Maybe an all night fishing trip. That used to always do it for us.
Y'all try to contain your excitement. I wouldn't go buy a new boat (or sandbags) until the rain is falling from the sky.
I do like that it is consistently showing rain is coming over a large area. Let's hope they are right because if they are wrong, or if the rain inexplicably misses us all, we'll be going into the month of June in awful shape.
Leslie, I hope it doesn't hail on your plants while you're gone. How dare it rain while you're not home to enjoy it---but that's better than no rain at all.
I tried to tell Tim this morning that it still looks like we have a good chance of getting rain at our house. He still isn't buying it. His attitude comes from years and years of me telling him what the QPF forecasts for us and then us rarely getting anything close to what it shows. I don't know if I ever can get him to believe in it again. I'm a sucker for a QPF with a good forecast. I keep not believing and not believing and not believing, and then as the day when most of the rainfall is expected (for us, that is Monday, when we have a 50% chance here) is almost here, I start believing....and then my hopes get crushed when we get .01 or .10 instead of 1 or 2".
It is raining in the Texas panhandle. Hope it is good rain that's falling!
I've linked the radar. If you are reading this some time after I linked the radar, don't blame me if the storms are all gone. : )
It appears the storms are moving towards the OK panhandle, which is great news for folks in the panhandle. I hope the storms don't run out of raindrops before the reach OK, though it is terrific that TX is getting rain too.
Here is a link that might be useful: Panhandle Radar
Dawn - They have issued flash flood warnings for Claude. Seems as though that cell has stayed over an area about 7 miles NE of Claude for quite some time. We have some moving toward us from the SW. If it holds together, we should get some wonderful, precious, most desperately needed rain that would be thoroughly appreciated by all!!! Can you tell I am fidgeting with excited anticipation?
Rain is coming down! Have severe thunderstorm warnings out that includes hail and up to 70 mph winds. Have lost TV signal. Lots of cloud-to-ground lightning, so I'm shutting down for a while.
Oh I want some rain too! I am ready and waiting !!!
gmatx, I was thinking of you when I posted the radar image, and was hoping you could get the lovely liquid sunshine without the lightning, hail and strong wind. I did notice that west TX had had severe Severe Thunderstorm Warnings before I even posted the radar.In fact, I linked the radar in case your TV was out. I wanted you to know what was coming. Let us how it all turned out and stay safe. I truly hope the hail and wind doesn't do a number on your home and garden.
I remember Claude, TX, and hope everyone there is safe. It is unfortunate that the desperately needed rain that can bust a drought often comes in torrential form and causes flooding. Growing up in Texas, I was well familiar with the old folk saying "it takes a flood to end a drought". Being older and wiser, I now know it takes a bunch of floods to end a drought.
Kim, Is anything coming your way yet? I hope you get it in liquid form that will soak in and not in hailstone form that flattens everything.
FYI: This afternoon, Denver had tornado touchdowns and huge hail that accumulated at least 5-6" deep on the ground in some places, or even more deeply in a few locations. Those hailstones would be nice drought relief after they melted but surely caused a ton of damage. I'm hoping the rain we're all hoping for the next few days falls as liquid, not as ice.
The picture I saw taken from the Denver airport of the hail curtain and storm was amazing.
At least one model has this system impacting the Texas panhandle for 5 more days.
The precip map still looks good!
Glad to hear of the rainfall!
Mesonet is showing seven days with varying degrees of potential rainfall. SURELY, one of those days will reveal some wet stuff. Question will remain as to how much.
Hopefully the rain hits Jay! and he pops in to tell us about it!
I noticed last night that there was a nice storm over Beaver County, and that is significant because their OKMesonet station at Slapout had not recorded even a measly 0.25" of rain in a 24-hour recording period in well over 200 days. I don't remember what their exact number of days was yesterday but it may have been in the 220s. I looked at the rainfall map this morning, and they got 0.51" of rain yesterday. What a relief for them, although they need a lot more. Even with that half-inch, their year-to-date rainfall is only 1.81", but maybe they'll get more in the next few days. It is nice to see a "0" on the 0.25" Map for them finally after all this time. Now, if only Cimarron County could get some rain to change their 202 day number back to zero.
When you're sitting around feeling sorry for yourself and your yard and garden because it hasn't rained in X number of days, just look at the map linked below and you'll see a lot of areas that are a lot worse off. Looking at this map reminds me to be grateful for whatever rain we get.
Here is a link that might be useful: Map: Days With Less Than 0.25
This post was edited by okiedawn on Thu, May 22, 14 at 10:37
Rain gauge showed 1/2" from last night and chances for the next 7 days - whoopeeeee! Hope all of you are getting some of this or will in the next few days. It has just made everything outside look, smell and feel so much better.
Arrgh, not yet
but my plants are ready and waiting. And all my buckets. Today I am hanging out laundry and washing my car too!
Kim - Are you actually in Panhandle, TX or just in the panhandle of Texas? I'm surprised you didn't get at least some moisture last night. Bummer! Wash you car, leave your clothes out on the line overnight, leave all your south house windows open, and for good measure leave your car out of the garage with all the windows open, also. Don't know what else to suggest...
Woo hoo! A half-inch is nice. It sounds like the hail missed you too, which is even better. That's a good start and I hope you get a lot more over the next few days. Summer is coming and we need every drop of spring rainfall that we can get.
Kim, I don't know what else you can do to make it rain, short of painting the exterior of the house or pouring concrete. Well, you could plan an outdoor family picnic or a neighborhood block party. Those always seems to make it rain too.
Maybe try using some reverse psychology like this: "Rain? We don't need no stinkin' rain. We like our grass dry and crispy. Brown IS the new green, etc., etc., etc." Sometimes I use reverse psychology to convince myself we aren't getting rain, and then when it actually falls, I am pleasantly surprised.
The QPF still looked good this morning and I'm afraid to look at it again for fear it will change drastically and ruin my hopes and dreams.
Dawn, look again. Like, right now!
It might be a few years before you see a 7-day forecast like this one. Some of these shades of colors I have never seen on that map for this part of the country.
It likely will not come true for the ones forecasted over 5 inches, but it is looking so promising for at least a couple of inches for the western half of the state.
I have never seen it so dry at our farm for this time of year as it is right now.
It's like a kindergarden class coloring project.
I looked. Looks pretty great, doesn't it?
I tried to describe it to my doubting Thomas of a husband. He just said he hopes west Texas gets the rain it shows for them. That's progress because at least he didn't give his usual QPF-related reply, which is "Yeah, whatever".
Know what I am really waiting for? A repeat of April 29, 2009, when our drought did pretty much end in one day with rainfall of 12.93". Think that could happen again? The QPF didn't exactly predict that either (grin) but Scott came here and warned me, y'all, and then a bunch of folks here on the forum followed along as I kept posting ever-increasing rainfall totals throughout the rest of the day. I think on that day we were expecting a huge rain event with 3-5" of rain forecast.
Have y'all noticed that when the storms fire up in the afternoons, they tend to start out severe, with some high winds and hail cores? I did look at the radar on my cell phone this afternoon while out in the garden and saw all the storm activity in NM, TX and OK. Kinda made it feel like spring to see all those storms on the radar.
I was working in the back garden, trying to break up the hard, cracked ground before any possible rain falls, so that I can then plant something back there after rain falls. All it did was cloud up, and a gentle breeze picked up....and I felt like I'd been transported somewhere wonderful. If clouds and light wind make it feel that wonderful outside, imagine what it would be like if rain actually fell from the sky. I'm almost afraid to hope for it to happen because the disappointment will be huge if it doesn't happen.
I'll survive the disappointment if the weather has a major fail and the rain misses my place, but 'll be bitterly disappointed on behalf of everyone living in western OK and the western half of Texas if the big rainfall totals elude them.
Since we enjoyed all the pretty colors on last night's QPF so much, I'm linking this mornings because it has even more of that lovely orange.
I don't even remember the last time we had a forecast for such a large amount of rain over such a widespread area, particularly with a large portion of the state not just in drought, but with so much of it in severe, extreme and exceptional drought.
I hope the forecasted rainfall totals are reasonably accurate.
Morning everyone - There is at least another 1/2" rain in the gauge, maybe 3/4" (can't tell from this distance). Whichever it is, we thankfully accept! There was actually some water standing in spots when I got up.
Hope all of you are getting some of this beautiful moisture. The current radar shows a tremendous coverage of rain over the Texas Panhandle with it moving on over the western part of Oklahoma.
I have rain and I didn't even leave the laundry on the line. We have collected water in all those empty water jugs I had saved and coolers and trash cans and buckets and barrels.
We left plenty for the ground too :]
Mary, WOW! So happy for you and your plants. What a relief that some moisture finally fell from the sky.
Kim, Hooray, hooray, hooray! I hope to collect oodles of rainwater too when the storms finally get here.
For my specific location in OK, our main and highest chance of rain is in the Mon-Wed time frame according to our local TV mets, so I just have to be patient and watch your rainfall and enjoy it vicariously until our own rainfall finally arrives here.
I hope we all get lots of lovely moisture. So far, so good, for many parts of west TX and western OK. I was starting to wonder if some of y'all ever were going to see it rain again. I guess the answer is "yes".
Well we've sure been blessed, four hours of hard to steady rainfall. I'm so thankful!
Just now read the back posts.
Mary I am in the panhandle near Caprock canyon. I am a transplant having moved over 20 x, but really enjoy life here in the panhandle. I've been here 3 1/2 years and trying to learn how to garden in hot dry wind. I never really had a real garden until I came here, so nothing to compare it with.
I hope everyone gets plenty of rain to wash all the dust off.
I haven't checked the rain gauge yet but will and report back.
I'm not home but they're saying we got 3 inches. Most of it missed the watershed, but hopefully it'll rain there this weekend at some point. And more rain at home would be great too!
Yay Leslie. It is too bad it missed the watershed. Maybe the next storm will hit the watershed. How low is your water reservoir now?
I posted an update on Scott's thread about our rainfall. Here we've been in a drought period much longer than most. This is starting year 7 or 8. Would have to go back and check records. We were in a doughnut hole for a couple of summers when it rained within 20-30 miles of us but not reach us. With that being sad with the nice rains we received last August through October we were in a little better condition than those around Canadian, TX. Of all the traveling I have done this spring they were as bad as anywhere. This isn't an end to the drought but the first time is 5-6 years that the milo farmers will have enough moisture to plant their crop when it should be planted. Hopefully more will continue to come.
The area that was burned two weeks ago in the fire on the land belonging to my fiancee got another good drink. So it should look like a lawn soon. They still say the fire was intentionally set. Fortunately it was contained and never harmed any people, buildings or animals.
Will be watching for the totals over the next few days. The rain so far has covered a wide area. Jay
More rain here ! I love seeing little puddles and kids with umbrellas. Everything looks so much greener with all the dust washed off. it probably feels better too. I did not go out and empty my rain gauge but we got at least 2" since its overflowing.
one of my cooks and I washed our cars in the rain yesterday just to encourage it to keep coming
Jay, I was thinking this week about when your drought likely started up there, and all I could conclude was that my memory doesn't go back that far. But, I do know that by the time my area hit drought again in 2008 after a lot of rainfall in the spring and early summer of 2007, y'all already were in drought. So, I did some checking and found the Drought Monitor for the last week your part of KS was still in the white. Does June 2007 sound right to you? We all know, of course, that by the time an area even shows up in the yellow on the drought monitor, that we gardeners and our gardens already are feeling the pain of the drought big-time.
I'm sorry to hear about the fire at your fiancee's place, but grateful to hear no people, animals or buildings were harmed.
Kim, Once the rain finally gets here I might just go out and splash in the puddles myself. No one ever said that only kids get to splash. Why can't we grownups celebrate the return of rainfall in a year (or, in Jay's case, in the 7th year) when it has been far too dry for far too long. I know some parts of SW OK have been in drought since sometime in 2010, and they still are in drought, but at least some rain is falling. Any rain is good, but everyone needs more.
I saw an article this morning about the seven states that are running out of water. Guess who they are?
Here is a link that might be useful: Seven States Running Out of Water
Dawn it basically started here in 06. There have been two different years when most areas around us received 5-8 inches more than we have. One year I can remember maybe 010 I had nine inches but my BIL 22 miles away had 14.5. Last year was similar. At least this time we are close to the top of the rainfall totals. We are thankful for every drop.
Dawn I confess I put on my rubber boots and had a blast. my cook/friend and I danced and really enjoyed getting all wet.
I was looking at my Facebook news feed earlier and one of my friends was complaining because this was the weekend they had set aside to paint their house. It was the only weekend they had available so they'd been planning it for like two months. I had to laugh. She's the reason it rained.
Leslie, I think we can get a crew together and paint your friends house for her if she will just make it rain again.