Karl Rove predicts winner of Nov election - surprise!

jmc01April 26, 2012

Conservative horcrux Karl Rove is out with his first official electoral college projection of 2012 and it's really bullish on Obama. Rove has South Carolina, which McCain won by 9 points in 2008, rated as a toss-up, and Texas-TEXAS-merely leaning Republican. The result, in Rove's model, is 284 electoral votes within Obama's grasp, 172 for Romney and 82 toss-ups.

Now, maybe this is some kind of devilishly brilliant plot to sow complacency among the ranks of the enemy, but Rove�s predictions were pretty spot-on in 2008 and 2010. Either way, it has to be a little spooky for Democrats or Republicans looking at his map. [Via Weigel]

Read more: http://swampland.time.com/2012/04/26/karl-rove-obama-is-winning/?iid=sl-main-mostpop1#ixzz1tBsKZTYn

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ohiomom

the ranks of the enemy

....and this is how "we the people" view each other? As the ENEMY ??

No wonder this country is fracked up !

    Bookmark   April 26, 2012 at 7:24PM
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chase_gw

That is very interesting indeed.

No matter which way it goes it's sure to be a close one! Although I am partial to Mr Rove's view....and that's gotta be a first!!

    Bookmark   April 27, 2012 at 6:44AM
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tobr24u(z6 RI)

Maybe we can still have Newt in 2016...

    Bookmark   April 27, 2012 at 7:11AM
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jodik_gw

C'mon, Tobr! Not while I'm trying to eat breakfast! ;-)

    Bookmark   April 27, 2012 at 7:33AM
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tobr24u(z6 RI)

LOL! Hope you didn't spew on your keyboard...

    Bookmark   April 27, 2012 at 7:51AM
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marquest(z5 PA)

I think it is too early to predict. But I agree with Rove. The voting public is a changing thing.

Social Media is changing things so much I do not think the usual analysis used in the past is telling them what, where and how. Everybody is thinking the money is going to buy them the election. I think it is going to be the Social Network that is going to buy the elections.

The College sites are blowing up in favor of President Obama, the Hispanic, and Women issue networks are busy with plans of getting out the vote.

The voter suppression is doing a lot of getting movement toward the president because it is forcing contact of getting people to go and get the proper ID. People are grateful that you gave them a ride to get the proper ID and are saying because it showed someone cared to do that for them they are going to vote for Obama. I took three people this week to get ID. They did not know about the ID until they went to vote Tuesday.

Seniors do not like what the Republicans are trying to do them. They have contributed a lot to this country and to do something like this to our seniors is not fair.

It is shaping up to be another interesting election.

    Bookmark   April 27, 2012 at 9:13AM
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houseful

I think it might be interesting to keep updated maps here just to see how accurate Mr. Rove is. The May map does not reflect his recent prediction that NC will now go for Romney. He also predicts that OH and FL are leaning toward Romney as well. Wisconsin is the new battleground state.

November cannot come soon enough!

    Bookmark   May 19, 2012 at 5:51PM
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lily316(z5PA)

Here in PA, ads have begun,both Romney and Obama. God help us. We'll have to endure this for almost a half a year. >>At the gym tonight I watched Joe Sestak , a guy I voted for for senator, tell about the hardship it will be for people to deal with voter ID. This guy who is a military hero could not vote in the primary he said because they wouldn't accept his military ID. He said our right wing governor, who was our state's attorney general for eight years, prosecuted eight cases of voter fraud in his tenure and YET signed the voter ID into law despite the fact that seniors don't have driver's licenses and neither do many poor.

    Bookmark   May 20, 2012 at 2:53AM
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vgkg(Z-7)

Same here in Va Lily, the ad wars have started.
Typical Rove, make your guy the underdog. Similar to when he lowered expectations for Bush jr. prior to the debates with Gore.

    Bookmark   May 20, 2012 at 9:40AM
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haydayhayday

I think that, if I had to pick one source for the best indicator of what's going on in the election mood of the country, I'd go to Intrade

Right now they're showing Obama's chances of winning at 56.9%. That means that, in the latest trade, someone paid $5.69 to bet on Obama. (And someone else took the other side of the bet.) If Obama wins, the winner gets $10. That's how it works.

Recently, Obama peaked at something over 60%. That was at the peak of the Republican mud slinging campaign. Since that peaked, Obama's chances have been going downhill.

Romney is currently at 39.3%

If you add the two together you get that the bet, Either Obama OR Romney, trades at around 96.2%. That seems to be in the ballpark of the number whenever I've checked it.

What accounts for the other, roughly, 4%? (100-96.2)

Hay

    Bookmark   May 20, 2012 at 11:11AM
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woodnymph2_gw

Here is SC if you don't drive, you can still get a resident ID card with your photo on it, which enables you to vote. It serves in lieu of a drivers license.

    Bookmark   May 20, 2012 at 11:43AM
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