Soooo, how much rain will we get Wed-Thurs?

scottokla(7)July 29, 2014

It is looking like a 80 to 100 mile wide strip will get good rain starting in the northwest and going southeast. Only about 40 or 50 miles wide will see large amounts, one strip Wed and the second round Thurs.

From what I can tell (no expert or professional) the predicted area to get it will be through the OKC area or slightly north of it the first day, and then maybe a little further south and east the second day. You want the rain to develop north and east of you because if it develops very far southwest of you or northeast of you, you may be out of luck.

The American model up until tonight had the main strip near Tulsa, but the NWS is predicting it 80 miles to the south so I am guessing the superior Euro model must not be liking Tulsa's chances.

I'm predicting Dawn and I will each get half an inch and the areas in between will peak at 4 inches, just like the last couple of times and just like the NWS thinks.

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My personal pestimistic prediction is zero...but I hope it's significantly more than zero ;)

    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 7:54AM
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Okiedawn OK Zone 7

Scott, I expect you are absolutely correct. I have been so hoping the rain would shift far enough south to hit us with more than the tiny amount they have been forecasting for us, but the opposite has happened. The amount the QPF has been forecasting for us on the 5-day and 7-day has been dropping daily.

I am beyond even hoping for rain and am resigned to August being a terrible month here, moisture-wise. Our grass looks terrible, so I finally broke down and watered the yard in an effort to keep the bermuda from going totally brown---not because I really care about the bermuda, but because having brown grass run clear up to the house becomes a fire hazard. Really, I just wanted to run the sprinkler in the front yard a while for the chickens and wild birds so they could cool off on Sunday, and the bermuda grass got watered since it happened to be there during the poultry/wild bird sprinkler party.

The garden has been on irrigation life support for about 3 weeks now, and if I stop watering, it will go downhill very quickly. There just isn't much residual soil moisture in the ground despite a lot of irrigation.

We just seem to be in a persistent pattern this year where real rainfall misses us about 80% of the time and we sit here very dry while areas just a few counties away are flooding. Or, we get a light misty rain that puts a couple of hundredths of rain in the rain gauge but does nothing really for the plants.

If this year is like the last couple of years, heavy rainfall will hit in autumn and by the end of the calendar year, our total rainfall will look pretty normal but we'll know that the year wasn't normal at all, unless this is the new normal, and I hope it is not.

Is your pecan crop in danger or do you have enough irrigation water to carry them through the rest of the summer?


    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 8:15AM
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We also have rain in the forecast. For me, this has been the best year I can remember for rain. I have not kept track with the amount we have received, but it has been about right. I got a $48.++ water bill a few days ago. That is very low for me at this time of the year.


    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 10:58AM
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Our pecan crop was mostly lost on April 15, but many of the natives have a crop up above the 50ft level where the freeze didn't kill them.

Even though we have received less rain up until now than any of the last few extreme drought years, it has all been in the growing season and in regular small events so we are still green. We just have no moisture down deep and our water sources are below where they were at the low point of 2012.

It's really about time Dawn or I got lucky. Unfortunately it will only be one or the other or neither. One other glimmer of hope is that after a week of cool, dry weather we are predicted to have a wet, cool week following that.

    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 12:45PM
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Last night's European run shifted it's precip axis to the north, It now has it's heaviest band of precip moving SE from Northwest Oklahoma between Tulsa and OKC. It also expanded the areal extent of the heavier rain, as well. This morning's run will not be available for another couple of hours. The general trend of all models has been a slight shift northward compared to a couple of days ago.


    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 12:47PM
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They are saying 3 - 3.5 inches for me. I'll believe it when I see it. I'll say 1 - 1.5 inches.

    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 1:08PM
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Sorry, Dawn.

The NAM has had the path near the Tulsa area for a few days but back and forth a little from model to model run. It has never matched the NWS prediction until this morning, so I was guessing the Euro had moved north a bit.

We are still a bit north of the heaviest predicted precip, but at least we are close.

    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 1:13PM
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I went out to fluff up the soil where I hope to plant something this fall. My soil does not drain well and it seems that if I till it, it will hold more water, giving more time for it soak in. It is hard for me to believe I have this much moisture at the end of July, plus a good chance of rain the next two days.


    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 1:26PM
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Like Lee hinted, NWS expanded the rain prediction north so no luck for Dawn, but I'm pumped! Looks like NAM beat the Euro this time.

    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 6:23PM
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helenh(z6 SW MO)

My TV weatherman just forecast .09 inch for me. How many drops is that?

    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 7:29PM
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I wish Dawn could get a share of this.
Helen isn't that like 22 drops! that's how we usually do it by the drop. Locals here say this is the best summer ever. Most of the farmers apparently haven't even run their pivots. That is a miracle this late in the year. My son said business will pick up when they do get em running though.

Larry that is a nice tiller and some nice soil too. I have a hard time handling the tiller. I need to save up for a small one or borrow the ag depts.

    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 8:35PM
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Kim, that has been a very good tiller. I have a Troy Bilt horse and a mantis 2 cycle also. That Poulan Pro has serves me well for 10+ years and It is the only one I have that I can operate with one hand. There are many brands of the same design, made by the same company.

The soil does look good. I have worked on for 8 years and it is much different than my native soil. This part of the country really needs a lot of organic matter.

I would suggest that you borrow the ag. dept. tiller if it is handy. I have never been good at borrowing any thing, but there is nothing wrong with it. A tiller tike the one above( except with a larger engine) was on sale for $549.00 this year at Atwods.


    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 9:17PM
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Okiedawn OK Zone 7

I went out and ran errands most of the day after I did the harvesting early this morning, and then came home and canned. While canning, I logged on and looked at the QPF and saw the rain had shifted north, Scott, and I was happy for you. It was unlikely it would expand and catch both of us, so if it wasn't going to hit us here, then at least it seems likely to hit y'all there. Enjoy every drop that falls.

Y'all don't have to worry about me. We'll be fine. We've had worse years than this one. For as dry as it has been overall, at least the majority of this year's rainfall here has fallen in June and July. That's actually better than if it had mostly fallen back in February and March and then very little since then. I just get tired of having to irrigate all the time when folks 100 miles north are flooding. It makes me want to stomp my foot like a 4-year-old and proclaim "It's not fair!" I also can think of more fun ways to spend money than sending it to the water company. (grin)

I thought the grass in the yard looked a little greener this morning after I had watered it on Sunday, and then Tim mowed while I was canning pickles, and now the lawn is brown again.

We did get rain here yesterday and a little this morning. It added up to 0.15". We'll try to make that bountiful amount of rain last as long as possible before we feel compelled to water the garden again. : ) Looking on the bright side of things, when only 0.15" of rain falls, you don't have to deal with muddy feet and muddy paws because there is no mud.

Helen, Well, it all depends. Are they big drops or small drops?

Kim, It is about time y'all have a good rainy summer. You haven't had one up there in so long.

It probably is just as well that we aren't going to get heavy rainfall. I'm harvesting watermelons about every other day and if it rains too much once they are maturing, it can ruin their flavor. So, I suppose this week it is good not to have too much rain for the sake of the melon flavor. August melons usually have the most superb flavor because they ripen in the heat on low rainfall, so in that sense, we are right on schedule.

As long as the cool weather lasts, we'll enjoy that whether we get a little rain, a lot of rain, or no rain at all. At least with the significantly cooler weather and lots of clouds, the soil moisture we have isn't evaporating as quickly as it was on the really hot days last week and over the weekend. Since it isn't likely to be raining much here tomorrow, I'd like to spend the whole day doing garden maintenance. It isn't every year you get a day in July so cool that you can happily spend the whole day weeding, deadheading, mulching, etc. I'm looking forward to that.

Kim, I have a Mantis cultivator. It is the perfect size for me and I can do just about anything with it. I am amazed at how well it works on dense, compacted clay---as long as that clay has some moisture in it. The Mantis is no match for clay that is dry and has baked as hard as concrete, but it is great in clay with a little moisture. In the small areas of sandy soil that we have, it is awesome, and it works fine in the well-amended clay that we've been improving for 16 years now---cuts right through that amended clay like a knife cuts through butter. I don't know how it would handle caliche clay/rocks because I've never tried it on that. Sometimes my Mantis and I together can break up fairly hard clay better than Tim can do it with the big, heavy, rear-tine tiller, which is something I didn't expect. It seems like the Mantis digs in and bites into the soil with its smaller width while the bigger tiller is bouncing around on top of the clay and throwing Tim around with it. I love my Mantis and if it ever dies or breaks down to the point that it is beyond repair (in 5 years we've had no trouble at all with it), I'd buy another one in a heartbeat.


    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 9:36PM
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Dawn, you. Know how I feel about Mantis. Mine finally died this Spring and we quickly replaced it with a new one.

    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 10:32PM
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We have2 tillers, my son and I, and I cant handle either. My son thinks I can still work like I did 10 years ago. But right now I can not.
Larry I am like you I do not like to borrow.
unless I have the money to fix or replace. For now my shovel and I get along pretty good. My son works 12 -16 hours so I wont even think of asking him to till me a patch until winter.
Dawn it is true it is definitely the panhandles turn for some decent rainfall. The cotton farmers have had a rough go for awhile

    Bookmark   July 29, 2014 at 11:58PM
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Dawn, you know how to make lemonade out of lemons. Here's hoping your watermelons are sweet! :) It's been raining here in NW OKC since about 8am, and I'm guessing we've had 2 or almost 3 inches. I can't see the rain gauge from the window but can guess pretty well by how much the pool has risen up the tileline. I actually haven't watered my (dismal) veggie garden much at all this whole summer. When I first planted my tomato plants (very late), I did take the watering can over there and give them a drink every day or two for a week or so, to give them a fighting chance, but in general, it's fend-for-yourself out there. I haven't even gotten around to staking or caging them, so they are sprawled. I went out and got a bowl picked last night, lots of BER, likely from all the rain and the soil splash. Oh well, still better than store-bought!

    Bookmark   July 30, 2014 at 5:14PM
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We have 1.6 so far at the farm and should make it to right about 2 inches within the next hour. Another very heavy band is hitting the central part of the state. If it would curve north a bit we would get another inch.

    Bookmark   July 30, 2014 at 8:11PM
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1.91 inches and pretty much done. Not bad.

It's pretty amazing that the model simulation one channel here in Tulsa used yesterday nailed the high-total areas almost perfectly. Kind of spooky, actually, that the backside of the storm would lay down heavy totals in a narrow strip within 10 miles of the same OKC to McAlister area the simulation showed would be the peak.

    Bookmark   July 31, 2014 at 12:24AM
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Okiedawn OK Zone 7

Carol, I'm sorry yours died, and you are right, I know how you feel about it and am not surprised you bought another one.

Mia, Living down here where the rain finds a million reasons to miss us, you have to learn how to make lemonade out of lemons....if you can find any water to use to make that lemonade.

I hate hearing the weather has been so hard on your garden. The BER likely is from the heavy rainfall. Though we tend to forget that excess moisture can contribute to BER, it certainly can.

Our morning rain was unimpressive (0.92") compared to what so many of you were expecting and were receiving, but then our weather radio started going off sometime after 9 pm and it became apparent a Severe Thunderstorm was approaching Love County from the NW. Eventually, it came far enough south to reach us. We lost the satellite TV reception, then the electricity briefly, and then the internet, so all I could do was watch the lightning and rain.

After Tim got home, we waded out to the back garden with a flashlight in hand a few minutes ago to check the rain gauge, and our total for the day here at our house was 2.70". The tree frogs were singing like mad. These are the ones that, from a distance, sound like a lady screaming, so it was an interesting concert.

I guess my plans to spend a day in the garden tomorrow weeding, deadheading and pruning just washed away, but I don't mind. It will be so nice to have some moisture in the soil for a change.

Scott, Last night our TV met said he thought the models were wrong for us and that everyone in the Texoma region would get an inch or more, and tonight he was saying 1-3" for the southern parts of the Texoma region on the 5 and 6 pm forecasts. He was right. Hallelujah!

As I sit here and type this, it has begun raining again. I can only state the obvious (grin).....when it rains, it pours.


    Bookmark   July 31, 2014 at 1:40AM
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