Yikes! I hope this is wrong.....
After a few years of dry weather and only 2-3 storms
we are now in an active weather pattern but unfortunately this too.
NWS forecasters discussion-June 12,2013
A major severe weather outbreak is possible today in Iowa and
Illinois. At minimum...it appears a widespread risk for wind and
hail is likely over all of the County Warning Area this afternoon and early this
evening...with a risk for tornadoes primarily along and north of a
line from Cedar Rapids...to Muscatine...to Peoria Illinois.
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 258 am CDT Wednesday Jun 12 2013
A very sobering situation is developing early this morning. A
capped high cape airmass is found from Iowa southward...a strong
short wave is dropping into the Dakotas...low pressure in south
central Nebraska is moving east along a stalled frontal boundary.
This front is found from Omaha eastward over Iowa to the quadrant
cities...to northern Indiana. Mesoscale convective system activity is occurring just north of
this stalled boundary...enhancing the convergence by backing the
winds along it.
Storm Prediction Center has already outlined the threats today very well in their day 1
graphics...as I strongly believe there will be several hours of
supercell thunderstorms this afternoon over the northern 1/2 of the
County Warning Area...along the stalled boundary. This places a tornado risk into the
Cedar Rapids...Dubuque...Clinton...Quad Cities...Freeport...Sterling
... Princeton metropolitan areas. As noted by Storm Prediction Center...there is a
risk for a few strong tornadoes...especially right near the boundary
where the strongest low level instability should be found...along
with backed winds...creating a more strongly curved hodograph. At
this time...this appears to be locations roughly along Interstate
80...east of Iowa City.
The cap which prevented convection yesterday is now working against
US. Thus far through 2 am...it has prevented storms from forming in
the south half Iowa. Our savior out of this event is most certainly
getting storms to push the boundary south...but even with a large
flare up in storms in northwest Iowa...the cap is so strong that
storms may only swipe the northern 2 rows of counties. At this
point...since models are correctly showing the storms to the
northwest remaining on an east to northeast progress...I have to
believe the boundary will not drop farther south...and strong
heating/high cape will occur in the southern 1/2 of the County Warning Area setting
the stage for our potential severe event. This said...I will
continue to monitor convective trends...and hope our capping
weakens...but that seems unlikely ahead of the coming strong short
wave in the Dakota. After highs reach the upper 80s today...the
low should be poised near Des Moines...and will sweep east to the
Mississippi River by 7 PM this evening. Thus...supercells should
break out by early to middle afternoon...with a tornado risk in the
aforementioned areas...this should then congeal with storms near the
low and along the cold front in central Iowa this late afternoon.
From this point on a intense derecho should form...and sweep
eastward. Widespread wind threat is expected...with winds that
should easily reach 80 miles per hour in bowing segments. This is possible in
all areas east of I-280...but especially in the Illinois counties.
In southeast Iowa...northern Missouri...and west central
Illinois...it is the damaging winds with the main low passage that
will be the primary threat...unless the boundary drops well south as
mentioned as a lower possibility.
Stay informed. Take warnings very seriously today. Know where you
will take shelter this afternoon if it is required. Shut your garage