Some cold on the way....

jimhardySeptember 12, 2012

Looking more likely.

9/12-weather-underground forecasters discussion.....

Long term...Thursday night through next Wednesday...

the main story is that the medium range models continue to support a

pattern shift to much colder weather by midweek and beyond... with

potential for early frost/freeze and record to near record cold


Heres the rest of it-

Tue-Wed... aforementioned front looks to usher in much colder air

during this period and beyond as large upper trough develops

over the central Continental U.S.. medium range models all agree on this pattern

shift thus not question of if it will turn colder... rather how much

colder. Recent runs of GFS and European model (ecmwf) would support initial cold

shot Tuesday into Wednesday with 850 mb temperatures in the single digits to possibly

near 0c! This would likely result in near record to record cold temperatures

with potential for frost and yes even a freeze in some areas by 12z

Wednesday. GFS and European model (ecmwf) both support the typical fall roller coaster on

temperatures and indicate moderation into Friday before next disturbance and

attendant cold front Ushers in another surge of possibly even colder

air for the weekend... just in time for the autumnal equinox. The

colder air arriving next week is the main weather story and will be

monitoring closely in the coming days. McClure

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orchiddude(+7b ALabama)

WOW, I hope yall keep the freezin up there. I sure dont need that right now in the south.

    Bookmark   September 12, 2012 at 9:45PM
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Doubt it will get that far.....our warning area/forecast area
goes into another zone north,so hopefully not quite freezing here either 0:

    Bookmark   September 13, 2012 at 10:14AM
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The forecast is not looking any better-

From the NWS forecasters discussion more pleasantly comfortable day with near normal highs
of 75 to 80 degrees and light south winds and fair skies. Sunday
night...some low clouds to arrive from Missouri ahead of the strong
cold front with mins mostly near 60 degrees. Later shifts may need to
assess risk of some patchy fog and drizzle toward daybreak.

Monday...strong front to arrive with bands of rain and possibly
isolated thunder if enough middle level forcing. Severe risk appears
none at this time with limited instability at or below 1000 j/kg...wbz at or above 10k above ground level
and poor bl lapse rate for gusty winds at or below 45 miles per hour even with best PM
heating situations of 70+ degrees southeast sections at this time for later shifts
to reconsider. Rain amounts suggested to be mostly .1 to .25 of an
inch due to the fast progressive nature of this strong cold front
even though precipitable water values are about 1.25 inches. Key will be risk of
thunderstorms as they could double or triple forecast rain amounts as
they move northeast at 25 to 35 miles per hour. Large high temperature gradient
with lower 60s northwest with nearly steady PM values to lower to
middle 70s far southeast sections. Most central and SW locations will see
falling PM temperatures with gusty northwest winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour with good
overturning bl mixing due to strong cold air advection and clearing skies with boost
of September sunshine...this will enhance the gusty nature of winds.
Monday night...this is a challenge as upper trough is again colder
and strong with likely 850 temperatures to crash to near to possible below
zero with -2c values in north suggested. With clear skies and
northwest winds of 4 to 8 miles per hour as is limit bl decoupling
this still supports mins 33-38 degrees for near record to record cold
risk. The magnitude of bl decoupling should become better determined
next 24-36 hours. Currently have mins 36-41 degrees.

Tuesday...a brisk day with fair skies and fair weather cumulus clouds
and northwest winds of 10-20+ miles per hour with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees
in north sections...this would be at least 15 degrees below normal.
Tuesday night...trend of colder and slower is evident this cycle as
was discussed last night. This poses a challenge as if surface high is currently suggested...several hours of nearly calm
winds for bl decoupling...and clear skies...this support mins of 30
to 35 degrees that would probably most break cold min records.
Favored low lying areas could even see upper 20s...this obviously
would require frost and possibly freeze headlines. Once again...the
this risk and trend should be better ascertained the next 24-36

Wednesday and Thursday...strong reinforcing shot of cold air and deep
upper trough nearby support very cold rain showers with probability of precipitation probably
needing raising when timing better clarified. Highs of 65 to 75 with
mins mostly in the 40s. Again strong baroclinic zone overhead and
deepness of trough do suggest temperatures may need lowering with
potential wrap-around low clouds and near record cold maximum temperatures in
north not out of the question if zone shifts a bit further south...
that will need monitoring the next couple of days to see how phasing
occurs and speed and strength of surface and upper air occlusion.
Remarkably...some evidence parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota could see
some wet snow if this trend of deep cyclogenesis the past 2 days is

Friday...strong cyclonic northwest flow portends below to well below normal
temperatures with current highs in the mostly middle 60s and lows in the lower
40s likely several degrees too mild. Some techniques suggest mins
near freezing and some 55-60 degree highs may not be out of the
question with cold PM rain showers as trigger temperatures to be
reached with lots of cold air aloft and gusty to possibly very
gusty winds.

    Bookmark   September 15, 2012 at 10:50AM
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LagoMar(USDA 8/AHS 7)

Autumn seems to arrived early this year. There are no hot temps predicted here in va bch either. Rather unusual for September. We've already had a night below 60. Again, very unlike September.

    Bookmark   September 15, 2012 at 5:58PM
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Temps took a slide down the thermometer here too. Not so much yet, but they're predicting highs only in the 60s all week, with one low I believe Wednesday night of 49. The other lows predicted are in the mid to low 50s. They're not predicting a frost or anything close to that, but it will definitely feel like mid to late October around here next week. I'm thinking I'm going to dig up my Siam Ruby and bring it inside over the week until temps warm up enough to get some growth out of it.

    Bookmark   September 15, 2012 at 8:23PM
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I have already dug up my bananas and upright EE's. They need time to adapt to the pot and shade before the cold comes. My biggest problem is my cacti. This time of year they need to dry out. Unfortunately I woke up to a unforcasted downpour.

    Bookmark   September 16, 2012 at 8:51AM
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Good idea about the Siam ruby...they seem to dissolve in cold weather :0


I usually put a rain cover over my cactus(when needed) Oct 1 to keep them dry for winter-
not a prob this year as we have had 1 rainfall over an inch since June )-:

    Bookmark   September 17, 2012 at 11:07AM
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Big storm on the way for the local area tomorrow and into Wednesday with several inches of rain, tropical storm force winds, and heavy thunderstorms. Will probably have to spend some time cleaning up. After cold front I see highs in mid 60's for couple of days w. lows in low 50's before rise back into 70's. Not ready to move things inside. Ocean temps around 76 f. so Fall decent of temps will be gradual and prolonged. Despite the coolish September, I think Oct-Nov will be fairy mild.

    Bookmark   September 17, 2012 at 4:46PM
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njoasis, when should i move in my fishtail and queen palms? When do you? I'm in NJ as well.

    Bookmark   September 23, 2012 at 11:35PM
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The Coldest it got in Indiana was 35 last week. Crazy Indiana Weather... I think the Palms are getting used to Indiana's Crazy weather now.

    Bookmark   September 29, 2012 at 8:58AM
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39F was the lowest at my house.

Looks like another Arctic front comes in end of next week....

makes sense it would be colder-hope not though...

Look at the humidity here,already down to 17% at noon

    Bookmark   September 29, 2012 at 1:08PM
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