Hollande conquers France

david52_gwMay 6, 2012

"France was poised for major change Sunday night when Socialist candidate Francois Hollande looked set to beat conservative incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in run-off balloting for Frances's presidency. Initial results revealed at 8pm local time forecast Hollande beating Sarkozy by a seemingly insurmountable score of 51.9% to 48.1%. When that result is confirmed by the final tally, Hollande will become France's first Socialist president in 17 years - lifted to power by a majority of voters who embraced his calls for a greater emphasis on economic growth and targeted social spending to counteract the austerity measures implemented to help shrink France's excessive debt. / snip

That a Real Socialist, folks. FOX will go berserk.

/so much for 'austerity' and keeping the German bankers happy.

Here is a link that might be useful: link

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elvis

Wonder how that will affect the stock market? Probably not in a positive way; glad we don't pay around with it.

    Bookmark   May 6, 2012 at 7:41PM
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duluthinbloomz4

From Daily Finance...
"Though a change in leadership in Paris could prompt a change in the way Europe responds to the debt crisis that's already seen three countries bailed out, the elections in Greece have the potential to prompt far more volatility once markets reopen on Monday."

"Elections in France and Greece, plus a regional election in Germany, all have the potential to escalate the eurozone crisis by raising anxieties about fiscal discipline," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at financial information company Markit. "The elections are dominated by the growth-versus-austerity debate, especially in the face of recent survey data showing a deepening recession in the region'".

I don't "play" around with it much - I buy and hold and that has served me well.

Here is a link that might be useful: We'll see

    Bookmark   May 6, 2012 at 8:03PM
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labrea_gw

It started with the Netherlands about a week or so ago when
Mark Rutte & Government resigned after not being able to put over austerity measures, France & Greece had elections and the Japanese Market didn't react well to it. I started moving into safer waters last week after the Dutch Government resigned. The value of the Euro fell & in both France and Greece & to a lesser extend the Netherlands there is a growing right wing this sounds familiar (anti immigrant movement) The neo Nazis in Greece got 7% of the vote & may actually gets seats innthe birthplace of Democracy.
Gee in Arizona the neo Nazi border boob Todd "J.T." Ready just got passed around the party.
The Euro is already down in Asian markets tomorrow should be fun for the hedge fund risk players. Germany is'nt pulling this one out of the fire.

    Bookmark   May 6, 2012 at 8:32PM
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hamiltongardener(CAN 6a)

I'm watching these elections and noticing a pattern. Everyone is voting with jobs in mind. They don't care so much for which side of the political spectrum.

In Greece, the right wingers are doing well on a platform of promising young people they won't have to compete against new immigrants for jobs. Did anyone else notice how many young supporters they have? Jobs are on the mind of the Greek voters. Other parties who promise to stop the austerity (and layoffs) have been gaining ground.

In France, Sarkozy failed to deliver the jobs. He promised prosperity and a better economy. He didn't deliver and now he's out.

I wonder if this could foretell the American election? People talk about vaginal probes and birth control and gay marriage but in the end, will people vote with their wallets? I think the worst of the mortgage meltdown and recession is over but many people are still without jobs, healthcare, and have lost their house. People don't care who is getting an abortion when their house is being foreclosed. Social issues are important to voters in times of wealth.

This election won't be won on morality or religious or social issues. I think this American election will be won or lost on financial issues, on jobs. It's a sign of the times.

    Bookmark   May 6, 2012 at 8:53PM
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heri_cles

The Democrats aren't running on social issues, the Republicans are.

The economy is always a big issue but it is also a complex issue.
It is not as simple as Romney suggests by saying that "I know how to fix this economy." Mittster's plan is to marry Bush tax cuts for the wealthy with austerity for the middle class and an assault on Social Security and Medicare. His first stated priority will be to see that 50 Million will be without health insurance.

The fact is that the economy has been turning around albeit slowly. The auto industry was saved. The construction industry is showing at least some signs of life even while the foreclosure problems remain a drag on prices. This will require time and patience and a steady hand..not a flip-flopping one percenter vulture capitalist that subscribes to Ryan austerity for the masses and tax breaks for the wealthy.

I don't see anyone like Romney running in any European country, but I doubt he would have a chance there either....well maybe in France.

    Bookmark   May 6, 2012 at 9:23PM
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chase_gw

Yes but what is interesting is that these countries are voting in more liberal than conservative governments because the austerity programs simply aren't working.

The UK , which undertook huge spending cuts , has officially entered a second recession.

Funnily enough the US is being hearlded as one of the only countries that got it right in terms of managing this world wide recession.....but that will never be understood by most Americans.

    Bookmark   May 6, 2012 at 9:35PM
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labrea_gw

Natalie Rickli A Swiss right wing populist claims there are too many Germans in Switzerland taking jobs form the Swiss. OHHH I guess they aren't picking Hopps.
Shes from Swiss People's Party & the nation has put in play
the "Safeguard Clause" which limits the free movement of people across Europe.
They don't want any EU anchor babies in Bern!

France also has an interesting Right wing extremists Marine Le Pen who head a very large party. The best part about the French right wing is that they are secularists. Strict separation of Church Mosque & state.
Her ideas on corporate tax

She advocates to implement a flexible corporate tax according to the use of profits: heavier when the profits benefit the shareholders and lighter when the profits turn towards profit sharing, salaries, employment and productive investment, enabling a relocation of activities.

    Bookmark   May 6, 2012 at 10:32PM
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haydayhayday

"Hollande's victory could have far-reaching implications on Europe's debt woes. According to the Associated Press, Hollande has promised a 75-percent income tax on the rich and "wants to re-negotiate a European treaty on trimming budgets to avoid more debt crises of the kind facing Greece."

And if 75% doesn't work, we can just take it all like Chavez, the Russkies, Argentina....

We'll end up, in the end, with 100%. In the end, we'll vote ourselves into slavery.

This man gets the same number of votes as I do. He only sees as far as the next day.

For my good buddy, Kwoods, would you want to be investing YOUR money in France or Greece?

The French stock market in the past three months in comparison to the red S&P. If I were a Frenchman I'd be wanting to "export some jobs" about right now.

Export jobs like they're doing in Greece.

"Rakovski, Bulgaria (CNN) -- Greece's economic problems may be having a negative impact across much of Europe, but one country could be benefiting from its troubles.
Greek investors are said to be jumping across their neighboring border to Bulgaria, money in hand.

"It's a very sad reason but it is happening actually," says Georgy Ganev, an economist from the Center for Liberal Strategies. "Even some Greeks are transferring their monetary balances from Greece to Bulgaria"

Be careful what you wish for, Kwoods?

Hay

    Bookmark   May 7, 2012 at 4:33AM
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tobr24u(z6 RI)

I am sure that the skinny socialist in the White House is overjoyed with this turn of events...

    Bookmark   May 7, 2012 at 6:33AM
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esh_ga

Hollande will need to begin to coordinate his economic promises with the social realities of France today, with the situation in Europe -- an angry Greece also voted today -- with Mrs. Merkel, Mr. Obama, the financial markets, unemployment, purchasing power, and the debt crisis. He will have to manage the expectations of the French people and their inevitable disappointment, as it is true that those who govern in times of crisis have lower approval ratings. "What is glory at first, at the end is burden," wrote Victor Hugo in The Legend of the Centuries.

I doubt the American people will pay much attention to what is happening in France - except for a few well chosen soundbites about the country being "Socialist" now to scare the sheep into voting anti-Obama lest it happen to us.

Especially the part about letting immigrants vote. It won't be a slam dunk accomplishment in France either - the President can't just wave his hand and make it so:

And it is to his credit that he hasn't backed down from this proposition, which will require a revision of the Constitution, either through a 3/5 vote in parliament or by a referendum that would, in this case, give the French people a second opportunity to comment on the issue.

Sound bites are all that matters in this twitter-dominated, sensationalist-news driven United States of ... oh look there's a squirrel!

Here is a link that might be useful: source of course

    Bookmark   May 7, 2012 at 7:40AM
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haydayhayday

It's nice, as a consolation prize, that there still exists places on the face of this earth that aren't currently being threatened by the ill advised Socialistpaths in the world.

There are still bastions for freedom in this world.

BUT, just like the Russkies, the Cubans and other Socialistpathic countries, there's always an attempt to keep your brightest from emigrating. At some point there will be a recognition, just like Obamacare needs to force all of us to participate or "it doesn't work", a recognition that we need, absolutely need, the whole world to be made into one big Socialist nightmare to keep the brightest at home or else "it won't work."

Hay

    Bookmark   May 7, 2012 at 11:22AM
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esh_ga

I've been reading more about this change in France and why Hollande won. The easy-cheesy excuse that conservatives will pick up on is that Sarkozy promised jobs and didn't deliver. They will then say that the current sluggish US economy will be Obama's undoing for the same reason.

But from what I see, it was Sarkozy's willingness to embrace the European concept of austerity - draconian budget cuts and squeezing of social programs that earned him the boot. An approach that Romney embraces.

So if the American public can understand and learn from the European approach - that austerity not only does not bring jobs but it also makes the citizens vote you out because they can see it is not working - then the American people can vote to reject the Republican platform.

    Bookmark   May 7, 2012 at 1:05PM
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labrea_gw

In any event The market didn't flop today like I though it would ah well.
Yes to meet any Venezuelan who visits NY that does not have a non working Venezuelan credit card but voila look at that an off shore credit card that works just fine. Poor guys are only permitted to spend $2000 a week outside that hell hole of a country. No lover of Chavez but certainly not a fan of the not so grand grandees either.

    Bookmark   May 7, 2012 at 4:53PM
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inkognito

Sarkosy schmoozed whichever group he thought would get him the votes, coming across as a phoney but as he moved to the right he missed all those voting left. Some say that the voting was people against the financiers one group being offered austerity while the other group hardly made it back from Gstaad in time to vote. Juan Cole thinks Sarkosy's Islamophobia played a part too. It may interest USAsians to see how a Socialist government plays out since the expectation is a bit like Hay's horror story.

    Bookmark   May 7, 2012 at 5:41PM
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inkognito

I meant to include a link to Juan Cole's blog

Here is a link that might be useful: informed consent

    Bookmark   May 7, 2012 at 5:42PM
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maddie_athome

Sarkozy didn't "win" anything the last time. Voting machines were placed strategitally in certain Arrondisements and voila! You get the picture.

But from what I see, it was Sarkozy's willingness to embrace the European concept of austerity - draconian budget cuts and squeezing of social programs that earned him the boot. An approach that Romney embraces.

So if the American public can understand and learn from the European approach - that austerity not only does not bring jobs but it also makes the citizens vote you out because they can see it is not working - then the American people can vote to reject the Republican platform.

The French told him to casse-toi! So can you.

    Bookmark   May 7, 2012 at 5:50PM
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david52_gw

My stereotypes on the French have suffered immensely.

I thought for sure everybody would be focusing on the latest fashion Carla Bruni was wearing.

But no, they figured that they weren't going to suffer the rest of their lives because some hot-shot German bankers made bad loans.

    Bookmark   May 7, 2012 at 6:45PM
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chase_gw

Sarkozy lost more so than Hollande won.

Sarkozy was seen as an elitist who instituted austerity measures that were aimed at the middle class and poor while favoring the wealthy. The austerity measures did nothing to help the economy, in fact it worsened.

What basically happened was a revolution. Personally I think France swung to far left but that is the risk you take if you embrace an elitist view and tick off the middle class.....Conservatives, be careful what you ask for you might get it.

    Bookmark   May 7, 2012 at 9:32PM
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nancy_in_venice_ca Sunset 24 z10

I thought for sure everybody would be focusing on the latest fashion Carla Bruni was wearing.

You missed the comments on Hollande's pre-campaign make over (including weight loss) and his designer glasses.

    Bookmark   May 7, 2012 at 10:09PM
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labrea_gw

It's been a resounding no to austerity that did not even come close to achieving any of it's goals in France, Spain The Netherlands & England.
The US as has had mediocre growth Europe for all it's austerity measure hasn't had even mediocre growth just a continued a down turn.

The two parties that formed England's David Cameron's government coalition were trounced in local elections in Britain.
Hollande is supposed to continue to maintain a hard line against Iran that's the only downside I was worried about with his election.

    Bookmark   May 8, 2012 at 1:19AM
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