Romney's twelve million new jobs
begin quote: "Yesterday, Mitt Romney released an economic plan entitled: "Mitt Romney's new plan for a stronger middle class." Many of the ideas in the one-page plan are ones we've heard before, such as increasing access to domestic energy resources, capping spending and cutting taxes, and getting tough on China. Some are descriptions of outcomes Romney would like to see, and not actual policy proposals to accomplish them, such as: "Give every family access to a great school and quality teachers."
Nonetheless, in a press release today, the Romney campaign claimed that this new plan would create 12 million new jobs. "My plan will turn things around and bring the economy roaring back, with twelve million new jobs created by the end of my first term," Romney said.
I ran this claim past Mark Hopkins, a senior analyst at Moody's Analytics. His conclusion: according to his firm's projections, the economy is already set to add 12 million jobs in the next four years, provided a series of policy outcomes take place, such as a long term deficit deal that includes tax hikes on the rich and cuts to entitlements.
Hopkins tells me:
The current Moody's Analytics baseline forecast is for payroll employment to increase by 12 million jobs from the start of 2013 to the end of 2016 (134 million to 146).
If Romney is elected and the trajectory of the U.S. economy plays out according to script, obviously he'll be able to take credit for those 12 million new jobs.
However, the economic assumptions embedded in our forecast include only an extension of Bush-era tax rates for those under 250K, which is more closely aligned with the Obama administration's position. We also assume a bipartisan deal to scale back sequestration and achieve a long-run fiscally sustainable path, with Democrats accepting reforms to Social Security and Medicare in exchange for the increase in top tax rates.
In effect, therefore, Romney is essentially promising no more jobs than we currently expect to gain under proposals similar to those advanced by the Obama administration. There's not enough in Romney's plan to estimate how many jobs it would create. If hes saying the net change will be 12 million jobs, that's exactly what we're estimating without Romney's plan.
-snip- Advisers don't believe that Romney's ideas to fix the short term crisis, as he's laid them out in interviews, would actually do anything to fix the short term crisis.
Romney's one-page plan essentially confirms again that he still sees no need to tell us with any meaningful specificity what he would do to fix the economic crisis: He says he'll cut taxes without saying how he'd pay for it and says he'll slash government without saying in any serious detail what programs he'd eliminate.-snip - end quote.
IOW, just Blah Blah talking points, no details, and if we basically follow Obama's plans, we have the same thing, according to Moodys.
I do think its kinda funny with his claim that he created 100,000 jobs at Bain.
Lets say my buddy Marshall wants to expand his operation, finds 10 investors but still needs a bit more money, comes to see me. I loan him the money, he expands, hires 10 new guys, pays me back 3 months later, ...... and I run around claiming I created 10 new jobs.
Here is a link that might be useful: link