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There may be some rain on the way.

Posted by socal23 USDA10/Sunset23 (My Page) on
Tue, Oct 28, 08 at 10:46

Let's hope one of the wetter solutions materializes so we can call an end to the fire season and the smoke.

From the NWS Area Forecast Discussion LOX.

Long term...
the basic forecast for Friday through Sunday remains the same a weak system will rotate into northern California Friday dragging a weak front through the central coast then a second stronger frontal systems will move through sometime Saturday and Sunday with an option of some instability showers lingering Monday. The GFS and ec are in good agreement as are the GFS ensembles at least for the synoptic patterns.

Before the rain there is the issue of the marine layer Thursday night and Friday the approaching trough and increasing will likely bring a deep marine layer deep into the valleys. But there is a chance that all the middle and high level moisture will not allow any marine layer clouds to form.

The big forecast problem is the timing and the intensity of the two fronts. The models have been going back and forth on the timing... intensity...track and duration of both fronts. Current models are in a wetter stronger Mode very different from the weaker more to the north solution that the previous runs had. Precipitation ensembles still showing wild differences in the timing and amounts. Right now it looks like it is almost certain the central coast will see rain sometime from Friday to Sunday and it looks like areas south of Point Conception has a better chance. If the 12z runs can manage even a little continuity it will be time to up the probability of precipitation. Will begin
to get a better idea tonight when the 84 hour NAM solution will cover the Friday early Sat portion of the forecast. Model solutions are too variable to offer early rainfall amount predictions.


Follow-Up Postings:

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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

  • Posted by dicot Los Angeles (My Page) on
    Tue, Oct 28, 08 at 18:34

Yes, please. I'm ready to plant some areas that are rock hard unless moist and a nice soaking rain would sure help.


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

I've been watching the forecast also. Trying to be optimistic but it just seems the fronts this early fade off at Point Conception...as usual.
I am planting natives this weekend anyway...hopefully in the rain.


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

  • Posted by hoovb z9 Southern CA (My Page) on
    Thu, Oct 30, 08 at 0:47

Sigh. I'll believe it when I see it...and then after the weak attempt at rain, the Santa Anas will roar through again. :(

Well, it could be worse, right? It could be snowing...


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

It is Thursday, October 30, 1:53 p.m. and it is RAINING! I mean really raining...not just practice sprinkles. There was even some thunder an hour ago. I can actually feel the earth relaxing, taking a deep breath and saying "ahh."


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

as expected...socal gets little or nothing.

A MORE WELL DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING RAINFALL TO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES
ON SUNDAY...WITH LESS CERTAINTY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS. PRELIMINARY RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH FOR SAN
LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE IN FAVORED MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS.

ps. I just copy pasted weather.com...don't mean to shout.


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

  • Posted by socal23 USDA10/Sunset23 (My Page) on
    Fri, Oct 31, 08 at 12:53

Two hundredths of an inch in Camarillo. Oh well. I don't despair until the middle of February.

Ryan


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

We got one two-second sprinkle in the middle of the night last night. Sigh. At least it's overcast.
I think I'll go out and wash the car.
And the dog.
Renee


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

We had 10 drops in Pasadena area.


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

A friend nearby said we had 20 minutes of light steady rain last night...I never heard it. I knew we got something from the streets slight wetness.


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

YAY! It just started to rain here (extreme Western Northern California aka: Humboldt County) and I think we will get more than the few seconds of sprinkles we've had so far despite all the hype we have been hearing for the past two or three days. Last year at this time we had already had 7" of rain and until today we stand at 1.5" for the year.

It should be making its way down there soon, don't despair!


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

  • Posted by socal23 USDA10/Sunset23 (My Page) on
    Sat, Nov 1, 08 at 11:47

I am basking in the rare pleasure of sitting under a persistent train of showers and thunderstorms here. Normally I watch isolated showers passing through just to the north and south of me.

My youngest daughter has spent the morning pointing through the windows at the sky saying, "Water, water!"


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

Rain and 64 at sunrise..should hit 70 today. Very nice to pick up the morning paper with a warm breeze. Walking past the Ti plants and Howea palm adds to the tropical feel.


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

Rain! Rain all afternoon in Simi Valley, the SFV, Palmdale...


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

  • Posted by socal23 USDA10/Sunset23 (My Page) on
    Sun, Nov 2, 08 at 10:31

Half an inch of rain as of 0730 today and a few more showers possible.

I prefer the leaching provided by an inch or better in 24hrs but this is better than a poke in the eye.

Ryan


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

There hasn't been any rain here in Temecula. We had some brief sprinkles Oct 30.


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

The weather forecast people sure got it wrong this time.
WOW! I got 7/10. 7 times more than expected.
I was planting natives and got interuppted 3 times yesterday by thunder and lightening. I got drenched once but had to get them in.


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RE: There may be some rain on the way.

We got enough to give everything a good rinse to get off the summer dust build up, about .15 of an inch. The ground, which was moist this morning, has already sucked up the moisture and looks almost dry again.

The birds are extremely busy out here this afternoon, checking out what was brought up by the rain disturbing the soil.

Elaine


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