Think I need Mr. Peabody's Way-Back machine for this one (if you never watched Rocky and Bullwinkle, that will mean nothing to you, I'm afraid). I have a couple of guesses and will wait for clues to narrow it down. I like this one. Of course, if your French is a clue, I need to rethink...

Cynthia

Good one Nancy, haven't the faintest, need mega clues for this one.

Annette

Ahh the french is an affectation, not a clue!! lol.
Here is a quote for you all, but it goes back farther that this:

"If Candlemas Day is bright and clear/ There'll be two winters in the year."

Nancy.

Ah, bon. Then, I think I may be on the right path, but still need clues to narrow it down to one.

So, I am thinking one of two areas, but leaning more towards a northern one with little critters that might be seen around the gardens and farms...pip pip, cheerio...and all that.

Cynthia

Count me among the clueless, if any.

TM

lol. Achh nae, Cynthia, further north than that pip-pip crap!! That's where the quote came from... "Modern customs of the holiday involve celebrations where early morning festivals are held to watch the groundhog emerging from its burrow. In southeastern Pennsylvania, Groundhog Lodges (Grundsow Lodges) celebrate the holiday with fersommlinge, social events in which food is served, speeches are made, and one or more g'spiel (plays or skits) are performed for entertainment. The Pennsylvania German (Dutch was a misnomer) dialect is the only language spoken at the event, and those who speak English pay a penalty, usually in the form of a nickel, dime or quarter, per word spoken, put into a bowl in the center of the table." Get in Mr. Peabody's time-machine!

Nancy.

Achh nae, how about Scotland?

Annette, who is still in the dark.

Spent most of my life in southeastern PA and great-great grandparents on mother's side were German, although not Pennsylvania 'Dutch' (Deutch?). So, is it Germany? Sort of like Annette's guess better, but then why all the PA Dutch references? Hmmm.

So how far back? Franks? Saxons?

Cynthia

Originally, a badger or sacred bear is the prognosticator as opposed to a groundhog.

Nancy.

Aw jeepers. That sounds more like North America. I have no idea. :(

cynthia

My paternal side is German and we grew up with the story that Germans started the tradition of a hedgehog (though we had no idea what a hedgehog was, or for that matter a groundhog) seeing his shadow being the indicator of six more months of winter. When they came to America there were no hedgehogs so they chose a groundhog. The closest we came to those creatures in SD was a badger, an animal that no farmer would want around so they were rarely seen, think I only saw one during my whole childhood.

People like to claim the fame so my information may be mistaken though it was widely claimed in our area. Perhaps another country is responsible for the sacred bear, that sounds Greek or Roman.

Funny comic, Nancy. I remember years when we would have appreciated the sentiment.

Bobbie, I was thinking hedgehog, too and that is what made me think England. Then, Germany. Nancy's badger reference, though, has thrown me for a loop. However, it is getting late, so I guess I will stick with Germany. *sigh*

Cynthia, who can't wait to read the answer

A strikingly similar and almost identical custom is celebrated among Orthodox Christians in Serbia on February 15 (February 2 according to local Julian calendar) during the feast of celebration of Sretenje or The Meeting of the Lord. It is believed that on this day the bear will awake from winter dormancy, and if in this sleepy and confused state it sees (meets) its own shadow, it will get scared and go back to sleep for an additional 40 days, thus prolonging the winter. Thus, if it is sunny on Sretenje, it is the sign that the winter is not over yet. If it is cloudy, it is a good sign that the winter is about to end.

In Portugal, on February 2 is celebrated this day and is called The Candelaria Day that refers to the Presentation of Jesus at the Temple. It is said the "If the Candelaria is smiling (i.e. if it a sunny day), the winter is still to come, if the Candelaria is crying (i.e. if it is a rainy day), the winter is out.

Nancy.

OK, Cyn and Annette, you actually had it, I was just hoping that you would come up with the C or the G word!!lol

The Groundhog Day celebration is rooted in a Celtic superstition that says if a hibernating animal casts a shadow on Feb. 2, the Pagan holiday of Imbolc (imagine my surprise when I saw your question, Cyn), winter will last another six weeks. If no shadow was seen, legend said spring would come early. Imbolc is the day the Cailleach - the hag of Gaelic tradition - gathers her firewood for the rest of the winter. Legend has it that if she intends to make the winter last a good while longer, she will make sure the weather on Imbolc is bright and sunny, so she can gather plenty of firewood. Therefore, people are generally relieved if Imbolc is a day of foul weather, as it means the Cailleach is asleep and winter is almost over. On the Isle of Man, where she is known as Caillagh ny Groamagh, the Cailleach is said to have been seen on Imbolc in the form of a gigantic bird, carrying sticks in her beak. Imbolc was one of the four cross-quarter days referred to in Irish mythology, the others being Beltane, Lughnasadh and Samhain. It was festival associated with the goddess Brigid, who should not be confused with St Brigit of Kildare (although many of the references refer them to one and the same).
In western countries in the Northern Hemisphere the official first day of spring is almost seven weeks (46-48 days) after Groundhog Day, on March 20 or March 21. The custom could have been a folk embodiment of the confusion.
Imbolc is variously defined as an old Irish word, referring to "in the belly". This refers to the pregnancy of ewes. A medieval glossary etymologizes the term as oimelc "ewe's milk". Irish imbolc is sometimes rendered as "Candlemas" in English translation. In the modern Irish Calendar, Imbolc is variously known as the Feast of Saint Brigid (Secondary Patron of Ireland).

Bobbie, I couldn't find a German connection, oddly enough. I should have thought there was one, as it would be odd that an old Irish tradition would be imported to the New World by Germans....the day has been celebrated in Pennsylvania since the early 1800's.

A Canadian study for 13 cities in the past 30 to 40 years puts the success rate level of the prognostication at 37%. Also, the National Climatic Data Center reportedly has stated that the overall prediction accuracy rate is around 39%.

So there you go, some of you did get it. Cyn, I'm couldn't find any connection to an 'embolismic month'. The words are just similar?? Seems odd.

So, for Annette and Cyn:

As always, thanks to all for playing. As always, what I thought was easy, was not! I have taken a second Neocitran (Theraflu in the US?) the first I took about 5 am. I have a streaming head cold, and am determined to sublimate it by later this afternoon, when I have my appointment.

Nancy.

Good question and answer, Nancy, and I liked the cartoon, too. Thanks for the fun.

TM

I definitely don't deserve stars since I abandoned my first idea and went with Germany. Alas. I will reread the answer more carefully when I get home-cheating by reading it here at school. Hope they don't catch me.

Hope your interview goes perfectly. Will be waiting on pins and needles. How could they possibly not jump at the chance to hire someone with so much knowledge of minutiae? ;) Seriously, hope you get it.

Cynthia

"it would be odd that an old Irish tradition would be imported to the New World by Germans."

Nancy, I thought that would be odd as well so did some research and found several sites that indicate that Germany and other countries used animals to predict spring during the same time period as the Irish with their Imbolc celebration. Seems they all grew out of the Roman tradition of Candlemas. German immigrants brought the tradition with them from Germany to Pennsylvania.

Thanks for that!! I couldn't find the connection on the continent, but I guess we know that nothing happens in a vacuum in this old world!!

Nancy.