Hi there.

ALot of us here in the U.S. are also suffering through severe drought conditions.
I live in Northern Virginia, about 2 miles from downtown Washington, D.C., and the drought this area is suffering throught this year is just devistating.

In fact, the drought in our area started over 2 years ago. We have been stedily falling further and further behind in rainfall. I believe so far on the year that is 2002, the Wasington Metropolitan area is in an 18" deficit. In other words, on average we should have recived 18" (liquid measurement) MORE than what we have thus far in 2002.
This brings me to the subject of this post. Ive noticed that since about the first week in August, we APPEAR to be having a VERY early fall here in Virginia. There are LOTS of grees that have gone yellow, and are dropping copious amounts of thier laves, already. in a Normal year, we may start to see just a bit of yellowing here and there by labor day, and the trees generally hold thier leaves until VERY late October to mid November.

This year colors have started appearing in much larger quantities ALREADY, and some trees are even becoming BARE, like they usually do in late OCT-mid NOV. Not only this, but green grass that is NOT someones front lawn, or by any other area that is maitained and watered regularly, is virtually NONEXISTANT. Every day I see at least several trees that appear to be under severe stress, looking like a Coleus that has not been watered in 2 weeks. Flat, limp leaves, that are still green, but will be crispy in a week if no water is given to the trees. I dont ever recall a time where color and leaf drop has started THIS early in the season, NOR when entire 60 foot tall trees looked like a neglected, withering houseplant.

Im guessing that the coloring we are getting now, is about the ONLY color we will get this year, as in years where rainfall is low, color generally tends to be low also. Well, this year I have a feeling the only other color we will see is the brown of dried up crispy leaves.

I know I that my garden does not depend on the rain, however, this still has me deeply concerned about what is going on. Some folks say that the greehouse effect is a buch of bull. There are MORE who think it is a reality however, and I am one of them.

Over the past oh, 6 years or so, the winters have gotten progressively warmer. When I was a kid, 80F in January/February was UNHEARD of. The first time I remember THAT happening was when I was 21. It did not happen again for a while, but in the past 6 years its happend seemingly more and more each winter. Last year during Jan/Feb, on several occasions, we had entire weeks at a time of 60's/70s, leading up to one wonderful winday 80+ degree day out ahead of a cold front. SHORTS and TANKS in JANUARY or FEBRUARY? Its becoming commonplace here in my area.

I had 2 drecena "spikes" which are sold as annuals here, but in fact are TROPICAL that can get upwards of 10' tall and form trunks, Not only survive last winter, but began regrowing in April.

WHen I was a kid, the Potomac river, and Chesapeake Bay, used to freeze over ENTIRELY, every winter. It was common place for us to have strings of anywhere from 6-15 days, where the daytime highs never went out of the 20s, and at times were in the single digits, and nightime lows down to
-15F. It used to snow EVERY winter, without fail. I used to play POND HOCKEY here in the winter!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now, it appears we are lucky if it even goes below freezing at night, and forget ice on the rivers and bay, and even small ponds. It just doesnt happen anymore. Were lucky if it snows 2-3 times in a winter, and even luckier if it sticks around more than a day or 2.

Raleigh, NC, Wich is about 250 miles to the south of us, did get 2 big storms this year, however, they were warm stroms. Most of the time the temps were above freezing at the surface, and even though they got clobbered down there, it rapidly warmed up and it was all gone in 3 days, save for the piles in the parking lots. Thats another thing we dont see here anymore. That was commonplace to see when I was a kid. 30' hi snow piles in parking lots were everywhere, all winter. Last time we saw those was in 1996, when we got over 3' of snow in 5 days.

I traveled to Raleigh 3 times last winter. It was so warm there last winter, that there were leaves on a good number of the trees in town, in FEBRUARY!!!!!!!! The only time I have seen deciduous trees with leaves on them in February, was when I was in central and southern FLA!!!

Weather extremes are happening all over the plant now. Things like super hurricanes, super tornadoes, super floods, super droughts, super heat waves, super blizzards and super fires are all slowly, but surely becoming more and more frequent. Today there are areas of the country that are begging for no more rain, while 200 miles away, they are begging for even a DROP of water.

Those farmers who grow corn or soybeans here, didnt have much if any of a crop this year, unless they were on an irigation system. Sure, lots do have that, but there are just as many, if not more who dont, and they are the ones who have had to plow under entire crops. August corn that has gone to tassle should be 8-10 tall or more. There too many fields to count, where the corn is 2-3' tall, and dried and shriveled. Soybean fields should be a deep gree, like a velvet carpet laid arcoss the rolling hills, or stretched out like a quilt across the coastal plains. Not this year. Many of those fields are a bright beige or brown, and have been taken over by weeds now.

I guess I just felt the need to speak my concern for what is going on. I dont let it bother me very much, but seeing what I have seen this year, has me very deeply concerned. Ive never seen most of the things I have this year in terms of drought. Entire trees withering like little neglected housplants? Ive never seen that! LOTS of bright yellow and even trees becoming BARE in AUGUST??????????

We have had ONE rainy day this summer. That was about a month or so ago. I mentioned it in a post. Oh how wonderful it was. I was at a freinds place that night, and stayed up almost all night. The sound of the heavy rain falling into the woods was just incredible. It started around 4am, and fell very heavily, very steady, until about 10am. The rest of they day was showery, cloudy, and very moist... cool tropical like air. Thats the only day like that we have had all summer.

I sure am not a farmer, and I am no where NEAR as dependant on rain as someone with a yard, let alone a farmer, but I have to say, suffering through this, has even got ME praying for rain of ANY kind.

Gi'day mate !!!
It was great to read your post, but also very worrying.
I have been sitting down here in Australia for 30years watching changes happen to an environment and weather patterns which seem to be forming a trend over this 30 year period.
Now this is where its starts to get a bit scary !!
I grew up in Alex and graduated from Fort Hunt High in 66.
I skated the Potomac as a 200 lbs high school fullback with no worries mate as the ice under me was super thick and good for the whole winter. Many a day enjoying the 3 ft snowdrifts in Fort Hunt Park with my buddies,a few cold ones and , as we say in aussie, "a few sheilas".
I could always count on at least 6 "snow days" off of school every year without fail !!!!!!What is happening here ???????????????
What part of Alex are you in ??
Take care,
Paul

I lived just outside Alexandria (Falls Church) and I can't remember the last time the Potomac froze completely. Was it 1982? I can remember a few blizzards, but bitter long-lasting cold seems to have been rare recently.

In England also, winters are definitely warmer than 30 years ago. Snow in Manchester is a rarity now, although it was never very common, and frosts are the exception rather than the norm.

Summer droughts are forecast to be more common and more severe as global warming gets us, but the last 3 or 4 years have actually been very wet with floods in England both of the last two winters, and serious floods now in central europe.

--ian

Paul,

I think you are getting mixed up with the post fron Iann. He is the one who lived in Alex. I still live in OZ and unfortunately I havn't had the opportunity to visit the USA.

I get the impression from your post you are American now living here for the past 30 years. True?????

Regards,

Doug.

After re-reading the post from NoVaPlantguy I now get the gist of your post. Forget what I said.

Doug.

LOL. I think we took your post a little off-topic.

The current El Nino forecast is for a moderate El Nino through this winter (summer for you). El Nino conditions returned officially on July 11th. This means that the northern half of Oz should expect drier weather than normal. Queensland isn't statistically wetter or drier during your summer due to El Nino, so there's still hope for some rain :) If it persists into next year, you would expect a drier than normal winter :(

Have you seen this site?

Climate Management Information for Rural Australia

--ian

Here is a link that might be useful: El Nino now