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'Splain this

Posted by lily316 z5PA (My Page) on
Fri, Jan 18, 13 at 2:44

The states with the highest gun death rates are.. and

Gun ownership for these states:


1 Louisiana 46
2 Mississippi 54
3 Arkansas 61
4 Alabama 57
5 Nevada 32

The states with lowest gun deaths are:
gun ownership




50 Hawaii 10
49 Rhode Island...13
48 Massachusetts...13
47 Connecticut...16
46 New York...18


Follow-Up Postings:

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RE: 'Splain this

Please 'splain your correlation to us slower ones...


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RE: 'Splain this

Where's Alaska?

-Ron-


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States with Extremely High Populations of Gun Owners(more than 50%)
�1. Wyoming - 59.7%
�2. Alaska - 57.8%
�3. Montana - 57.7%
�4. South Dakota - 56.6%
�5. West Virginia - 55.4%
�6. Mississippi - 55.3%
�6. Idaho - 55.3%
�6. Arkansas - 55.3%
�9. Alabama - 51.7%
�10. North Dakota - 50.7%

Then we have states with the highest incidence of firearm related deaths

Are you seeing a correlation lily?

Here is a link that might be useful: link


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RE: 'Splain this

You can reduce the rate by half since about half are related to suicide, not homicides or accidents.


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Well, I don't have any detailed study that I can study on this, but just given the abbreviated info. supplied above, I would say that guns and gun deaths are highest first, in the south, and second, in the upper midwest, and third, in the northeast.

Other than Nevada and Hawaii, no figures were supplied on the western states, so I have no idea where they fit into the above pattern.

Having grown up in the upper midwest, I would say I'm not suprised they rank so high.

Kate


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RE: 'Splain this

"Where's Alaska?"

-Ron-

North West of British Columbia, directly West of the Yukon ;)


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Ba-dum-ching!


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I guess if there are fewer guns there are fewer gun deaths?


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lily316, the first group are all southern states.
The second group are states to which Portuguese mostly immigrated.
My point is that if one looks hard enough (s)he will find a correlation.
I am quite skeptical of correlations and would not try to 'Splain them.


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That's easy-- less guns means less gun DEATHS. Now, lets look at OVERALL murders:

1. California
2. Texas
3. New York
4. Illinois
5. Pennsylvania

In other words, IT'S NOT THE GUNS!!

Here is a link that might be useful: Statemaster.com crime stats


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No source in the OP.

Opps, I forgot. Only some posters are required to post links.


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Posted by jlhug 10 (My Page) on
Fri, Jan 18, 13 at 9:12

No source in the OP.

Opps, I forgot. Only some posters are required to post links.

*

Yea, you need to be part of The Club to be exempt! LOL


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You can reduce the rate by half since about half are related to suicide

What? Those deaths might not have been preventable had not an easy and quick method for self annihilation been at hand? Those lives are less valuable?


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This is just playing around with numbers to suit one's conclusion.

I'm hoping that the new CDC directive - where we actually have a scientific approach to the study of gun murders and woundings, will shed some light. Just as an example, I'd like to see a rigorous study on the relationship between violent video games and gun murders.

Now before everybody jumps in and trashes the results even before the studies take place, any serious bit of research contains all the data so that anyone can look at it, not just accept the conclusions.


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As you can see I missed the day in school where they taught graphs. I didn't have a link to share. What I got was 4 of 5 of the lowest gun ownership states are in the Northeast , Hawaii being the exception, and four out of five states in the south have the highest gun ownership. The gun deaths are highest in the states with the most guns per household.


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How can there possibly be a correlation between the number of x and the number of x's doing y?

And anyway, since there are already a lot of x's doing y, and you want to prevent the 'y' from happening, the solution is more x's.


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The gun deaths are highest in the states with the most guns per household.

And the OVERALL homicide rate is highest in the states with the LEAST guns per household, with the exception of Texas.

Oh, and I DO have a link.

Liiiiily, you gah some splainin to do!

This post was edited by bill_vincent on Fri, Jan 18, 13 at 13:10


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bill_vincent wrote,

That's easy-- less guns means less gun DEATHS. Now, lets look at OVERALL murders:
1. California
2. Texas
3. New York
4. Illinois
5. Pennsylvania

In other words, IT'S NOT THE GUNS!!

You have provided the wrong set of figures. The data you linked to is raw totals, not per-capita data. Here is the correct list of the top five states by overall homicide rate, from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports data from 2011:

1. Louisiana
2. Mississippi
3. New Mexico
4. Maryland
5. South Carolina


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  • Posted by kwoods Cold z7 Long Is (My Page) on
    Fri, Jan 18, 13 at 13:22

It's only a coincidence that the highest number of homicides are in the most populous states. What happens when you rank homicide rates per capita/as a percentage of population? Then compare that to guns per capita.


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That's easy-- less guns means less gun DEATHS. Now, lets look at OVERALL murders:

Now let's look at firearms deaths per 100,000.

-Ron-

Here is a link that might be useful: Statemaster.com


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We'd have some useful stats if the NRA's bought Congress hadn't made the CDC stop studying gun deaths and maimings. (Of course that includes suicides. Duh.)

Impulse is a big deal in all this. Guns are *quick*. A scared, angry, or depressed person can act immediately and lethaly before his mind kicks in to reconsider.

Deaths are only a part of this. Talk to an ER doc. Talk to the rehab people. Think of mental trauma -- and remorse.


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mrskjun wrote,

States with Extremely High Populations of Gun Owners(more than 50%)

1. Wyoming - 59.7%
2. Alaska - 57.8%
3. Montana - 57.7%
4. South Dakota - 56.6%
5. West Virginia - 55.4%
6. Mississippi - 55.3%
6. Idaho - 55.3%
6. Arkansas - 55.3%
9. Alabama - 51.7%
10. North Dakota - 50.7%
Then we have states with the highest incidence of firearm related deaths

Are you seeing a correlation lily?

How bizarre. You are saying that of the ten states you've listed as having the highest rate of firearms ownership, none is in the list of the top ten states in firearm-related death. Yet your own link proves your claim to be false.

Here's the list of the top ten states by firearm-related deaths, from your own link:

# 1 District of Columbia
# 2 Alaska
# 3 Louisiana
# 4 Wyoming
# 5 Arizona
# 6 Nevada
# 6 Mississippi
# 8 New Mexico
# 9 Arkansas
# 10 Alabama

So, fully half of the states you list as being in the top ten in gun ownership are also in the top ten in firearm-related deaths, contrary to your claim.

Again, I would expect you wouldn't want your erroneous contention to stand, so I hope (though no longer expect) you to correct it promptly.

This post was edited by Factotem on Fri, Jan 18, 13 at 14:08


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Liiiiily, you gah some splainin to do!
No YOU have some explaining to do, not lily.

As a supporter and card carrying member of the NRA and frequent defender of gun rights here, let me ask,
why do you need an AR15 style assault weapon?
How much ammunition do you have in the house for that weapon?

And let me ask a question: Are you concerned at all that some of the militant and extreme anti-government and anti-Obama rhetoric of gun rights advocates and Right Wingers will result in violence, like it did in the 90's with Ruby Ridge, Waco, and the Oklahoma City terrorist bombing?


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bill_vincent wrote,

the OVERALL homicide rate is highest in the states with the LEAST guns per household, with the exception of Texas.

Bill, you have looked at the wrong statistics. You compared totals, not rates. Please perform your analysis again and look at overall homicide rates and let us know what you find.

Thank you.


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Australia, Japan and the UK all have the same access to video games and violent movies - in fact, all three have less censorship than the USA. Neither are those countries resistant to mental illnesses.

But of course, they *are* foreign.


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why do you need an AR15 style assault weapon?
How much ammunition do you have in the house for that weapon?

First, although I've posted several times the reasons, I don't own you squat for an explanation. I don't need a corvette, but if I wanted one I could have that, too. I have no need for a swimming pool, but if I wanted one I could have that too. You have no right to tell me I CAN'T have one. As for the ammo, the same applies. it's none of your business.

now that we've gotten past that, how many times have I told you that picture was from over 20 years ago, and although I don't have the rifle any more, I DO still have one fully loaded 30 round magazine. Any more questions? WHO THE F**K DO YOU THINK YOU ARE TO TELL ME HOW I CAN OR CAN'T LIVE????

Are you concerned at all that some of the militant and extreme anti-government and anti-Obama rhetoric of gun rights advocates and Right Wingers will result in violence, like it did in the 90's with Ruby Ridge, Waco, and the Oklahoma City terrorist bombing?

Not at all. What I'm worried about would make ANY of those incidents look like a day in the park.

Factoman-- exactly. I looked at overall homicide rates. THOSE are the ones that are telling, because they include ALL homicides, not just those committed with a gun. I didn't stay within Lily's parameters because they were wrong. It doesn't matter how someone dies. Dead is dead, and the point pro gun advocates, including myself, have been trying to raise is that it doesn't matter if guns are available or not. If someone wants to kill, they're going to kill, and the stats I posted bear that out. Even though guns are hard to come by in 4 of the top five, they're still 80% of the top five.

This post was edited by bill_vincent on Fri, Jan 18, 13 at 14:08


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RE: 'Splain this

bill_vincent wrote,

Factoman-- exactly. I looked at overall homicide rates. THOSE are the ones that are telling, because they include ALL homicides, not just those committed with a gun. I didn't stay within Lily's parameters because they were wrong. It doesn't matter how someone dies. Dead is dead, and the point pro gun advocates, including myself, have been trying to raise is that it doesn't matter if guns are available or not. If someone wants to kill, they're going to kill, and the stats I posted bear that out.

Bill, I think you read my post in a rush. You did *not* look at overall homicide rates. You looked at total homicide counts. Again, you wrote,

lets look at OVERALL murders:
1. California
2. Texas
3. New York
4. Illinois
5. Pennsylvania

This list is incorrect; these are *not* the top five states by overall homicide rate. They are the top five state in total homicides, which is meaningless as it does not adjust for population.

Here is the correct list of the top five states by overall homicide rate, from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports data from 2011:

1. Louisiana
2. Mississippi
3. New Mexico
4. Maryland
5. South Carolina

I appreciate your re-examination of this.

Thank you.


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"As expected, New York City has recorded 414 murders in 2012 so far, which means it's the lowest number of murders since the NYPD started keeping track in 1963. Mayor Bloomberg said, "The fact that the safest big city in America is safer than ever is a testament to the hard work and determination of the men and women who put their lives on the line for us every day and it also reflects our commitment to doing everything possible to stop gun violence."
The previous lowest-murders-ever year was 2009, when there were 471 see chart below for history. Shootings also fell to 1,352 in 2012 (the previous lowest-ever was in 2009, with 1,420). Police Commissioner Kelly noted, "We're taking 8,000 weapons annually out of the hands of people we stop, 800 of them illegal handguns. We're preventing crimes before someone is killed and before someone else has to go to prison for murder or other serious crimes. We're also forging new alliances with advocates for public safety in every corner of the city."

They hate Bloomberg at Gun Shows & have been quite vocal about it for ages. I don't like him for a lot of reasons I love him for his pressure in this area!


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I feel much safer walking the streets of NYC than the streets of York or Harrisburg PA.


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Some guy in Utah goes shopping with an AR15, pistol, and extra magazines on his belt, trying to prove that guns are no big deal.

Now if there were people with concealed carry at that mall, and one saw somebody like that, wouldn't it be logical to assume he was some freako nut about to start a massacre, and just shoot him?


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I'd get out of that place as fast as possible.

I'd be blocks away in no time. No questions asked.

Of course in the future he could just be a teacher on lunch break....but we ain't there yet.

-Ron-


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I told you that picture was from over 20 years ago

You chose to post a picture of your weapons cache hung on the wall of your living room a few years ago, not 20. The info in the picture file does not square with your claim that is was taken 20 years ago. That was near the time when we were discussion the assault weapons ban and during the time of Ruby Ridge, Waco, etc when there was a lot of paranoid individuals acting out there hatred, and as we all remember, that culminated on the OK City terrorist bombing.

However, having said that, I never mentioned that picture in my last post here. I just asked a few simple questions and you went, well ~ballistic.~

It is this kind of rhetoric about guns and 2d Amendment Rights by some otherwise responsible gun owners like yourself that genuinely has me concerned...not for what YOU might do, but how that rhetoric might be taken and acted on by some wacko out there. And then what? The NRA blames it on the guys mental health and suggest we reform our mental health system or address the problem of gun crime in the inner cities first?
And here we are on the eve of the second inauguration where security is an enormous concern.

As far as your cache of weapons, the assault weapon/weapons and ammunition, do whatever you want with them. I have never suggested a gun grab and even pushed back here when one guy mentioned it.

Yes, I am worried about more gun violence and that the gun owners and NRA are resisting what most people believe are reasonable measures. In the meantime, the gun Rights/anti government/Obama haters do not make me feel any less worried. They are only ramping up the fear that went through us again when 26 were slaughtered in Newton.


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  • Posted by bboy USDA 8 Sunset 5 WA (My Page) on
    Fri, Jan 18, 13 at 16:31

>wouldn't it be logical to assume he was some freako nut about to start a massacre<

He is some freako not. A freako gun nut. He just didn't start a massacre.

A guy I knew for years, who ultimately moved out of the area used to walk around on a daily basis with a concealed pistol, loaded with exploding-or-similar-type bullets that would blow holes in anyone he happened to have occasion to shoot.

This ammunition was of course legal.

And he of course never had a need to be carrying around a loaded pistol during the conducting of his normal-style (non-military, non-security, non-law enforcement) work and personal business in the suburbs.

This post was edited by bboy on Fri, Jan 18, 13 at 16:37


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Please, I want to go back to when police could take care of that dangerous screwball "Man with a gun", not wonder if he had 'papers'.


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"Of course in the future he could just be a teacher on lunch break....but we ain't there yet.

-Ron-"

;D


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Id rather take yer assault weapons away rather than have armed guards in school. I didn't always feel that way!
Just something so right about that equation!


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Gun ownership.....does that mean just those guns that are registered? Or does it include all those unregistered guns in the hands of thugs and idiots?


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The numbers in which are being posted, are these just homicides in general or are they firearm related homicides? I posted this in the other forum but in 2011 there were 12,664 total homicides. Of this number 8,583 were done with a firearm. Now here is what I find humorous with this whole assault gun debate. Out of those 8,583 firearm homicides 6,220 were done by handguns and 356 with shotguns.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-11

Here are some stats published December 22, 2012. Notice that they are per 100,000 people. Number 1 is District of Columbia which is one of the most strict when it comes to gun control but at the same time New York is also strict and is ranked 46th.

http://www.statemaster.com/graph/cri_mur_wit_fir-death-rate-per-100-000


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JessicaR wrote,

The numbers in which are being posted, are these just homicides in general or are they firearm related homicides?

Which numbers?


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While all you gun/NRA defenders are busy telling us how guns aren't the problem - here is what almost happened.

GIG HARBOR, Wash. -- Douglas McRae is behind bars for firing an assault style rifle at passing cars outside of Goodman Middle School in Gig Harbor on Wednesday night.
No one was hurt in the incident, but Pierce County Sheriffs Deputies found an arsenal of weapons when they searched his home off of 36th Street Northwest.
"We found an arsenal of weapons," said a Pierce County sheriff�s spokesman. "Eight weapons in all, including an AR-15, like the rifle used at Sandy Hook."
Police don't know if McRae has a felony record or a record of mental illness, which would make it illegal for him to own a gun."
He's currently at the Pierce County jail on $200,000 bail.

Do we need another Sandy Hook before you are going to see that gun ownership and the types of guns available for ownership need to have limits on them?


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Here's something that needs 'splaining.

Where the heck did the crop of new posters who are campaigning hard on the gun issue who have just joined up within the past month come from?

Man, I thought the wash of new (and not so "new") posters who showed up shortly before the election and have disappeared since then was funny... is this going to happen every time a political issue comes up in the US?


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is this going to happen every time a political issue comes up in the US?

Seems to be a trend.

I used to read one of the big box blogs - identified as a Democratic site and thought to be influential - and there were pro-nuclear power posters that would swarm in when criticism of the nuclear industry was made.


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I definitely see the trend especially people who were never here and suddenly a day after the massacre , they showed up to argue the pro gun points. I'm guessing we'll never see them again, since they inundated the threads and left as quickly as they came.


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Probably just a bunch of well-meaning patriots motivated in support of the American Way and American Exceptionalism.


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  • Posted by ohiomom 3rdrockfromthesun (My Page) on
    Sat, Jan 19, 13 at 15:40

Marshall owes me a bottle of screen cleaner (^_^)


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I am protected by the Fifth Amendment and my dear friends rousing on behalf of the Second Amendment! :)


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  • Posted by ohiomom 3rdrockfromthesun (My Page) on
    Sat, Jan 19, 13 at 16:19

Speaking of the "2nd" .. there are pro-gun rallies going on today and one man in Texas has this sign:

"The Second Amendment Comes from God"

"God and Guns" ... sounds like a match made in heaven.


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  • Posted by bboy USDA 8 Sunset 5 WA (My Page) on
    Sat, Jan 19, 13 at 16:21

Jesus!


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"Where the heck did the crop of new posters who are campaigning hard on the gun issue who have just joined up within the past month come from?"

Like who? Fancifowl?

Look at it this way; you got the juggernaut: factotem.


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Pluuueeeeeze take her back. Just kidding, of course. Soon enough, the objects of her objectivity will object enough.


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No , I'm not counting FF who was banned years ago from HT and has apparently made a comeback. Cornopean, thegreatcob, and tapla (Al) come to mind, but there were others who then vanished to rattle their propaganda on other sites.


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factotem.....is a she???? I'm still getting used to the fact Elvis is allegedly a she....


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I don't know if facto is a she. I can't believe a man could be so focused on the facts, and only the facts. ;)


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@bill_vincent -

I would really appreciate it if you would take the time to correct your claim about the top five states in overall homicide rate per my post(s) above.

Thank you.


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