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Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Posted by madmagic dtown Toronto (My Page) on
Tue, Jul 31, 12 at 18:30

...and if another U.S. civil war ever broke out, which side would you be on?

U.S. politics has always been contentious, but the hardening lines -- on both sides, but particularly on the Republican side, with Tea Party political pressure and terms like RINO in popular use -- make me wonder if the current political divides could lead to open warfare.

(For the purposes of speculation, I'm assuming here that such a war would break out between the usually-Red and usually-Blue states, along the usual Democrat/Republican party lines. With allowances for 'border' states and parts of states, similar to Maryland, Kansas, and West Virginia during the prior U.S. civil war.)

Over to you.

All the best,
-Patrick


Follow-Up Postings:

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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

What do you mean by "war"?


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Nah it's the dream of deranged monomaniacal shock jocks or conspiracy nuts!
Though a complete suspension of liberties might wake the frogs in the boiling pot up. These little minnie take away's are doing nothing as far as I can see!


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Re: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Elvis, I think the phrase "civil war" is self-explanatory. What don't you understand?

All the best,
-Patrick


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Well, "civil war" is. But there are many kinds of warfare.


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Re: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

I was asking "Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?". Hence the topic. :)

All the best,
-Patrick


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

And the answer is... no.

No there could not.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Nah. The real world is nothing like here. The general public even with political differences are not as divisive as the media and the current administration would have you believe.

When you have a celebrity prez and he has nothing to run on this is type of hype that is put out there.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

It would be tough in certain areas - like Georgia - where you have Republicans in the rural areas but Democrats in the cities (like Atlanta).


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Patrick....we have proven we are a country of deep loyalities
when it comes to our home land.

America had its civil war and it was beyond human.
I can't wrap my mind around brother against brother, neighbor against neighbor.

I pray the day comes when we have a President that will
do everything in his power to unite instead of divide.

Its uglier now than it has been in years.
Thank you Barack Hussein Obama .
It happened on his watch.

He has been so busy with his ObamaCare and his other agendas that he
completely disconnected from what makes us a
strong nation and that is being united.

Patrick that doesn't answer your question.
With the right leadership.....maybe such a horrible event
would never happen.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

So, Patrick, people actually on the ground here are telling you it's not what you have imagined based on rabid partisan news shows. The reality is quite different.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

If a civil war broke out what side would I be on? I would flee to Canada and be on your side Patrick!


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Well, okay. My answer is no, anyway.


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Re: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Pat, I haven't had a tv in my home since 2004, and I don't make any effort to watch tv news online. :)

I do read news online, and encounter links to news sites outside my usual Internet pathways. And I listen to what other people write online, in forums like this one.

As well, I kinda doubt that a semi-random sampling of 8-10 people in the U.S. in 1855 would return different results. I'd guess that nearly all of them would say the same thing -- a civil war could never happen. But... it did.

Myself, I don't think it's very likely. Mostly because of the demographics; there isn't a young enough majority population to lead to serious war.

Althea, I like to hope our borders would be open, if that unfortunate day ever came.

All the best,
-Patrick


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Indeed, I think you nailed it there, if nothing else the populations of the US, Canada, and some other countries are too aged for serious warfare. Pinker (a Canadian) writes about that idea. It's quite interesting. Additionally, the youngest populations are immigrants or children of immigrants and here to earn money and not very likely to pay attention to manipulations around partisan politics.

Anyway, I'd probably go to Mexico in the event of civil war, since as you point out life in Canada is dull, and lots of nice things grow in Mexico. And who loves english-speaking americans more than mexicans?


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

There are no regional issues like slavery to drag us into a war and frankly barely enough difference between the two current parties to support a war based on their stance on issues. If fringe groups think there are, they will be sadly mistaken. The fact is we are not over-taxed. That's just a slogan that doesn't hold up to simple fact checking - a dumb lie is a dumb reason to die in a war. Besides, blue (southern) states are some of the biggest dependents on federal spending in the country and take home more federal tax money from red states than they pay in. If they leave the union they become a second class nation and the rest of the country's economic prospects and average class scores, etc. go up.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

It would be tough in certain areas - like Georgia - where you have Republicans in the rural areas but Democrats in the cities (like Atlanta).

In California the Republicans dominate the lesser populated inland areas while the Democrats have majorities along the coast - except for Orange and San Diego Counties. It's almost as if there were two separate states within our borders.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

pnbrown wrote "Anyway, I'd probably go to Mexico in the event of civil war,since as you point out, life in Canada is dull..."
pnb, if you are looking for excitement then Mexico is what you want, over 47,000 people killed in drug-related crime in the last 6 years.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

KT, I think you got your colors reversed.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Nancy very much the same here in Washington state. The heavily populated west side very blue while the less populated east side is red. They have talked at times of forming their own state. Ha!


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

  • Posted by vgkg 7-Va Tidewater (My Page) on
    Tue, Jul 31, 12 at 23:36

Nah, it wouldn't work out Patrick, neither side has the nuggets to start up a draft.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Same here in PA... the ends are blue and the middle is Alabama. The only way this country would have a civil war is if Mitt Romney is elected president, and we have another GOP doofus in charge.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

  • Posted by ohiomom 3rdrockfromthesun (My Page) on
    Wed, Aug 1, 12 at 6:27

Besides, RED (southern) states are some of the biggest dependents on federal spending in the country and take home more federal tax money from BLUE states than they pay in. If they leave the union they become a second class nation and the rest of the country's economic prospects and average class scores, etc. go up. (there fixed it KT)

....we could always build a wall on the northern border to keep out the illegals from the southern states, put a few armed patrols there too. Oh and the fresh water lakes are up north ... we can grow/raise just about anything ... looks like much of the south will be desert sooner than later.

Course I will have to "sneak my kin" cross the border :)

Actually all kidding aside Americans are too lazy to vote/protest what makes anyone think that a few loud mouths with pistols who think they can overthrow the gubmint have a snowball's chance in he$$ of doing anything but shooting themselves in the foot.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

No, more likely a revolution should the economic disparity that exists continues to a breaking point...


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

KT, I think you got your colors reversed.

Yes, Pat thanks for the correction.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Must be in the air or Bryan Fisher must be reading the forum if he does (rot in hell).
The idiot from FRC you know the vocal surrogate of the Republican party that speaks the excrement that no elected official can or will but never denounces. The Man who has Republican candidates come to his show to show fealty & kiss his rear. Is recycling the homeland Security buying bullets conspiracy to match his deranged fantasy that there will be mass riots if OBAMA is elected (well what the hell does that say about freaking republicans you baby wipe)
Same crew were carrying on the last election talking about concentration camps being built for after the election.

Who supports this guy Huckabee, Gingrich, Bachmann who does he support the same crew.
Whats the word no no not Ultra this man is an extremist right wing Christianist trouble maker.

Here is a link that might be useful: IDIOT


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

I don't think so - there already was one over slavery and most current civil wars seem to be over religion. Discussions and arguments can and do get heated but not to that degree.

By the way, here in dull Canada (I do like a dull life), it would be interesting to see if that would be the result should Quebec ever get serious about leaving Confederation. However, we on the west coast would be holding the door open for them.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Some of you seem to have forgotten that Texas Governor Perry and cohorts, when he was supposedly running for the Republican presidential nomination, threatened to secede from the Union (I forget over what issue--the rest of America wasn't agreeing with him on something), and Perry and cohorts actually claimed Texas had the RIGHT to secede any time they wanted.

Wasn't that how the Civil War began--when some southern states said they were seceding--and Lincoln said "No, you aren't."

My daughter was actually taught in the Texas schools that Texas has the RIGHT to secede any time it wants. Poor Gov. Perry--a product of the Texas public school system.

Kate


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Perhaps a bit of the Texas swagger or bluster or whatever it is Texans do...

When Texas entered the union in 1845, it was with the understanding it could pull out if the constituents so wanted. However, according to the Texas State Library and Archives Commission, Texas negotiated the power to divide into four additional states at some point - if it wanted to - but not the right to secede.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Pretty hard to imagine many people volunteering for the modern-day mission of preventing the succession of Texas, aye?


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

I'm with Kate; I've not forgotten what Perry said nor the attitude "Don't Mess With Texas" on bumperstickers.

I think it very possible if the economic downturn continues and if the polarization between Red and Blue worsens, as it seems to be doing.

Few thought the south would secede in the 1860's, either. But recall the clash between the two life-styles: agrarian vs. industrial. Tragedies do repeat, unfortunately, and brother against brother can be easy to forget with the passage of years. Now, we have a clash between two lifestyles in the 21'st century. Many complex factors are involved: lack of education, education but with no job possibilities, rising cost of medical care and of food, increased serious drought in the Southern half of the nation, and more.

As Ohiomom implied, Americans tend to be lazy and soft, but all it takes is scarcities of food and water and a few mindless hotheads with the right weapons....


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Perry is an idiot. If Texas has the right to secede, why did they allow themselves to be dragged back in to the union after the Civil War? That's the precedent written in blood - not some wingnut interpretation of Texas' original entry in to the union.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

What a horrible possibility to contemplate in any form.

I will posit that nothing like the civil war we have already had, or like the OP suggests--state against state--is a likely possibility.

The reason is that fully red and blue states don't really exist ... it breaks up a lot more along the lines of urban vs suburban/rural.

FTR, most actual Texans, are Democrats. Texas only became a Republican state during the 1970's when we had a huge influx of interstate immigrants due to a better economy than the rest of the country.

As someone who was here during that time of explosive growth, and who does come from a historically Texan and historically Democratic family, I find it's ironic to hear people from other states talk badly about us because of a change that occurred largely because of people from other states moving here.

I understand that at some level, a group is whatever it is right here and now, and can't be constantly claiming some more noble historical point in their history is the "real" them. But I do think the origins of Texas rightward turn is worth consideration when non Texans direct thier distate towards us, because with all due respect, we are you.

Rick Perry is actually from here though, and yes, is a moron. I got nothing else on him.

Not really sure what you might think "Don't Mess with Texas" means woodnymph, but it's not really anything overtly hostile to anyone but litterers, since all it is is the feature phrase of a decades old anti-littering campaign and originated when fines went up for littering in the early 80s (iirc) eg Don't trash our highways, or you will have to pay. So if you've been judging us poorly on that, then it's all been a misunderstanding.


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Re: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

In defense of Texas, and Texans, a reminder of Governor Sam Houston's refusal to take an oath of loyalty to the Confederate States on March 16, 1861. He was removed from office, under protest. On his way to Galveston a month later, he spoke to a crowd gathered outside his hotel:

"Let me tell you what is coming. After the sacrifice of countless millions of treasure and hundreds of thousands of lives, you may win Southern independence if God be not against you, but I doubt it. I tell you that, while I believe with you in the doctrine of states rights, the North is determined to preserve this Union. They are not a fiery, impulsive people as you are, for they live in colder climates. But when they begin to move in a given direction, they move with the steady momentum and perseverance of a mighty avalanche; and what I fear is, they will overwhelm the South."

All the best,
-Patrick

Here is a link that might be useful: Sam Houston (Wikipedia article)


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

  • Posted by kwoods Cold z7 Long Is (My Page) on
    Thu, Aug 2, 12 at 13:07

Yes.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

madmagic Patrick, the answer to your question is NO.
Now tell us a little about your country.
Do you think there could be a civil war in Canada?
All the best -
Sam_md


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

"Do you think there could be a civil war in Canada?"

No. Yes we have issues but none that would lead to civil war. Quebec wants to secede but Ottawa keeps buying them off to keep them in Confederation. The west wants to be economically autonomous because we have the oil, the lumber and the water - but that will never happen.

I might be ignorant (Oh actually probably definitely ignorant) but religion doesn't play a part in politics here (at least not in the west) and so that contentious issue is removed.


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Re: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

"Do you think there could be a civil war in Canada?"

I don't think it's likely in the near future, Sam_md. As Blfenton wrote above, we have our disagreements but we manage to muddle through them. Negotiated compromise has been an essential part of the Canadian federation since the former northern British colonies began joining together in 1867.

It's possible that a strong enough issue might arise in Quebec, which would drive more voters into the separatist Parti Quebecois. Who might then seize the opportunity to hold a popular referendum to leave Canada. Which might win, and might be accepted by the Canadian government, and lead to negotiations, which might break down. And result in a civil war.

That's a long string of "mights". The furthest we've ever gone along this road was in the 1995 Quebec referendum, which was very narrowly defeated (a 49.42% "Yes" vote to a 50.58% "No" vote.) There's been no further votes, and regular polling since has indicated another vote would not lead to a win for the separatists.

Quebec especially, and Western Canada to a lesser extent, would face a major difficulty in being at war with the rest of Canada. It would be extremely difficult for either of them to conduct military attacks on Canadian resources -- without hurting the U.S.

For examples: Quebec couldn't destroy or block the St. Lawrence Seaway, or seriously damage the financial district in downtown Toronto, or shut off the supply of Quebec's hydroelectricity to the northern North American grid. Any of those would instantly bring the U.S. into the fight against them -- they are all far too important to the U.S. economy to allow them to be disrupted.

And while the whole of Canada might have a slim chance to resist a U.S. attack, neither Quebec nor Western Canada could hold out against the U.S. on their own. They just don't have enough population, resources, or industry.

Besides, as Blfenton astutely noted, there are advantages to staying within Canada. We spend a lot of Federal money on Quebec -- as we have on Western Canada, throughout most of our history -- and there are many close ties between the provinces, regardless of the issues where we disagree.

Canadians are also well aware of the risks of breaking up our federation. It's difficult enough having 1/9th the national population and economy of the United States. Any breakaway nation(s) would have even smaller influence with our closest neighbour, ally, and trading partner.

As I used to say to friends advocating Western separation when I lived in Calgary, "If you don't think you have much of a voice in Ottawa now, try going it alone -- and see how much of a voice you have in Washington, D.C.".

Canada is in some ways a marriage of convenience. But we're reasonably content to stay together, especially whenever we seriously look at the real downsides of a breakup.

All the best,
-Patrick

Here is a link that might be useful: desiderantes meliorem patriam


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Re: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

"Do you think there could be a civil war in Canada?"

I don't think it's likely in the near future, Sam_md. As Blfenton wrote above, we have our disagreements but we manage to muddle through them. Negotiated compromise has been an essential part of the Canadian federation since the former northern British colonies began joining together in 1867.

It's possible that a strong enough issue might arise in Quebec, which would drive more voters into the separatist Parti Quebecois. Who might then seize the opportunity to hold a popular referendum to leave Canada. Which might win, and might be accepted by the Canadian government, and lead to negotiations, which might break down. And result in a civil war.

That's a long string of "mights". The furthest we've ever gone along this road was in the 1995 Quebec referendum, which was very narrowly defeated (a 49.42% "Yes" vote to a 50.58% "No" vote.) There's been no further votes, and regular polling since has indicated another vote would not lead to a win for the separatists.

Quebec especially, and Western Canada to a lesser extent, would face a major difficulty in being at war with the rest of Canada. It would be extremely difficult for either of them to conduct military attacks on Canadian resources -- without hurting the U.S.

For examples: Quebec couldn't destroy or block the St. Lawrence Seaway, or seriously damage the financial district in downtown Toronto, or shut off the supply of Quebec's hydroelectricity to the northern North American grid. Any of those would instantly bring the U.S. into the fight against them -- they are all far too important to the U.S. economy to allow them to be disrupted.

And while the whole of Canada might have a slim chance to resist a U.S. attack, neither Quebec nor Western Canada could hold out against the U.S. on their own. They just don't have enough population, resources, or industry.

Besides, as Blfenton astutely noted, there are advantages to staying within Canada. We spend a lot of Federal money on Quebec -- as we have on Western Canada, throughout most of our history -- and there are many close ties between the provinces, regardless of the issues where we disagree.

Canadians are also well aware of the risks of breaking up our federation. It's difficult enough having 1/9th the national population and economy of the United States. Any breakaway nation(s) would have even smaller influence with our closest neighbour, ally, and trading partner.

As I used to say to friends advocating Western separation when I lived in Calgary, "If you don't think you have much of a voice in Ottawa now, try going it alone -- and see how much of a voice you have in Washington, D.C.".

Canada is in some ways a marriage of convenience. But we're reasonably content to stay together, especially whenever we seriously look at the real downsides of a breakup.

All the best,
-Patrick

Here is a link that might be useful: desiderantes meliorem patriam


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Re: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Dammit, GW does need to fix their software! I only posted that once!

All the best,
-Patrick

Dammit, GW does need to fix their software! I only posted that once!

All the best,
-Patrick


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

There has been idle talk in the past about California splitting into two states. I don't expect that to happen -- unless there's a real shooting war for state water resources. SoCal will lead in the digitally-enhanced special effects department.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

As Nancy says there could be many reasons for unrest and a crossing of swords. The occupy movement is a venue that sits on the edge and current problems due to climate change will give fodder for dissension. Other contributing factors are the election, Religious beliefs and the input of those leaders.

The fight for equality for the LGBT population and the extremes that some "religions" go to in their fighting against that plus the eastern religions that many of the same groups bunch together without an understanding of the true nature of those "other religions".

Ultimately it will happen due to future breakdown of the infrastructure and supply lines of food and goods when the shortages begin. They will when the growing areas get hit worse than they are now.

It will be a combination of many things that have been discussed here but the military will put down most uprisings in short order. Then the detention camps that the prison contractors have been pushing for will come into play. Some do already exist as back up for possible future natural disasters.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

"Some do already exist as back up for possible future natural disasters."

Got any actual evidence for that claim, other than utube clips of someone running around some empty commercial installation while whispering breathlessly into the camera screen?


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

That was from memory but I will look just for you ;^)


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Civil war in Canada? Practically speaking how could that happen? We haven't got enough guns!


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

This is the most legitimate one I could find among the Whaka-doodle bunch, lots of those. Mostly the false ones but you just know some one will take the idea and run with it considering the condition of things.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Oops, forgot the link...

Here is a link that might be useful: Overseas Lease Group, Inc.


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Re: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

Chase, firearms have a habit of quickly finding their way into the hands of people engaged in wars. :) There's generally some political reason to support this, and the economics of large profits to be made help a lot.

However, setting aside what guns are in the hands of our military forces -- which, in a civil war situation, would likely go to both sides -- and guns being shipped in from the outside, there's already a fair number of small arms in Canadian hands.

The 2007 Small Arms Survey, by an international research project in Geneva, Switzerland, estimated the total small arms in Canadian civilian hands as 30.8 arms per 100 people.

The RCMP has figures on licensing, and the (Canadian) National Firearms Association has an un-dated article speculating on total gun ownership here. The latter article guesstimates with figures ranging from 12 to 18 million.

Obviously, that's going to include a lot of old useless rifles, especially cheap .22 calibre rifles. Not so many handguns as down south, because they've never been as easy to buy, keep, and use up here.

Personally, just from what I've seen of gun ownership in rural Ontario (south, central and northwest) and out on the prairies, I'd expect there's at least 10 million reasonably good deer rifles and shotguns in reasonably good shape, in private hands. Not great in a battlefield situation against assault rifles, but useful in urban warfare or rural ambushes.

Or roughly one gun per 3.3 persons, nationally. Could be more.

All the best,
-Patrick

Here is a link that might be useful: Number of guns per capita by country (Wikipedia)


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

We haven't got enough guns!

Your southern neighbors will be happy to sell you whatever you need.


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Re: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

"Your southern neighbors will be happy to sell you whatever you need."

Heh. Canada is uniquely situated between the two largest arms exporting countries in the world. The U.S. ($8,641 million) to the south and Russia ($6,039 million) just over the pole. (Both figures are for estimated 2010 exports, in "trend indicator values" at 1990s prices -- see the link, below.)

Canada's quite a ways below both. Our 14th place in the world ranking of arms exporting countries is based on $258 million in 2010 -- but it's a quick rise upwards from our 2001 figure of $129 million.

Sweden, Spain, Italy, Israel, and the Netherlands are all ahead of us. Plus the other usual suspects (China, UK, France, Germany.)

This is not an international race where I want to see my country succeed. Not in peacetime.

All the best,
-Patrick

Here is a link that might be useful: Arms industry (Wikipedia article)


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

So if we are going to judge likelihoods of civil wars based on total numbers of legally-owned firearms (which are no doubt mostly shotguns) divided by population, then the US should be in continual civil war, and violent little Switzerland with 45 guns per 100 people has a higher likelihood than Canada.

Silly concept? Yes, obviously there is little or no correlation. Some of the nations listed with extremely low rates of gun ownership are in notoriously violent regions of the world. But let's ignore that so we can continue pounding away at how badly out of control America and Americans are.

Don, I suppose any infrastructure could be co-opted for the abuse of civilians. I don't know what you intended that link to imply.


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RE: Could There Be Another Civil War In the USA?

For heavens sake it was a joke!


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