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Romney's twelve million new jobs

Posted by david52 z5CO (My Page) on
Sat, Aug 4, 12 at 15:28

begin quote: "Yesterday, Mitt Romney released an economic plan entitled: "Mitt Romney's new plan for a stronger middle class." Many of the ideas in the one-page plan are ones we've heard before, such as increasing access to domestic energy resources, capping spending and cutting taxes, and getting tough on China. Some are descriptions of outcomes Romney would like to see, and not actual policy proposals to accomplish them, such as: "Give every family access to a great school and quality teachers."

Nonetheless, in a press release today, the Romney campaign claimed that this new plan would create 12 million new jobs. "My plan will turn things around and bring the economy roaring back, with twelve million new jobs created by the end of my first term," Romney said.

I ran this claim past Mark Hopkins, a senior analyst at Moody's Analytics. His conclusion: according to his firm's projections, the economy is already set to add 12 million jobs in the next four years, provided a series of policy outcomes take place, such as a long term deficit deal that includes tax hikes on the rich and cuts to entitlements.

Hopkins tells me:

The current Moody's Analytics baseline forecast is for payroll employment to increase by 12 million jobs from the start of 2013 to the end of 2016 (134 million to 146).

If Romney is elected and the trajectory of the U.S. economy plays out according to script, obviously he'll be able to take credit for those 12 million new jobs.

However, the economic assumptions embedded in our forecast include only an extension of Bush-era tax rates for those under 250K, which is more closely aligned with the Obama administration's position. We also assume a bipartisan deal to scale back sequestration and achieve a long-run fiscally sustainable path, with Democrats accepting reforms to Social Security and Medicare in exchange for the increase in top tax rates.

In effect, therefore, Romney is essentially promising no more jobs than we currently expect to gain under proposals similar to those advanced by the Obama administration. There's not enough in Romney's plan to estimate how many jobs it would create. If hes saying the net change will be 12 million jobs, that's exactly what we're estimating without Romney's plan.

-snip- Advisers don't believe that Romney's ideas to fix the short term crisis, as he's laid them out in interviews, would actually do anything to fix the short term crisis.

Romney's one-page plan essentially confirms again that he still sees no need to tell us with any meaningful specificity what he would do to fix the economic crisis: He says he'll cut taxes without saying how he'd pay for it and says he'll slash government without saying in any serious detail what programs he'd eliminate.-snip - end quote.

IOW, just Blah Blah talking points, no details, and if we basically follow Obama's plans, we have the same thing, according to Moodys.

I do think its kinda funny with his claim that he created 100,000 jobs at Bain.
Lets say my buddy Marshall wants to expand his operation, finds 10 investors but still needs a bit more money, comes to see me. I loan him the money, he expands, hires 10 new guys, pays me back 3 months later, ...... and I run around claiming I created 10 new jobs.

Here is a link that might be useful: link


Follow-Up Postings:

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RE: Romney's twelve million new jobs

Just trust him.


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RE: Romney's twelve million new jobs

I don't even trust a god exists... why on earth would I trust a guy that can't speak in plain terms with any conviction?


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RE: Romney's twelve million new jobs

""My plan will turn things around and bring the economy roaring back, with twelve million new jobs created by the end of my first term," Romney said. "

What an incredibly irresponsible thing to say. He has no idea what the world economic situation will be and as President he doesn't have the power to do squat if Congress isn't playing ball. President Obama learned that lesson the hard way.

Having said that, over 4 million private sector jobs have been created during President Obama's tenure that in the midst of the one of the worst recession the world has seen. So assuming the recovery keeps on its modest trajectory upwards, 12 million is no big deal. President Obama can do that to.....well actually neither of them can do it. The business community will do it.


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RE: Romney's twelve million new jobs

tis hot enough outside across the country, we do not need Mitts hot air blowing out of his mouth added to the extreme temperatures.


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RE: Romney's twelve million new jobs

""We also assume a bipartisan deal to scale back sequestration and achieve a long-run fiscally sustainable path, with Democrats accepting reforms to Social Security and Medicare in exchange for the increase in top tax rates.""

Really? Who's the enemy? Why are we supposed to just accept this... as if it is a given?

Here's a novel idea....how about we increase the tax rate for the top tier...without taking away benefits for the rest of us? I mean, why not? Think about this. The top tier has had a pretty good run, wouldn't you say?
And the rest of us have been taking a major screwing for what seems like forever.

So, why do the rest of us have to give (read: take another major screwing) to get the top tier to PAY (not GIVE, PAY) their fair share??

Honestly, these unfair practices get bandied about and the next thing you know.. it's a given..you'll find that "the rest of us" shake their head in resignation that this is just the way things have to be.

You know..... like the fact that pensions have gone the way of the dinosaurs
that people should expect to work 2 and 3 jobs to make ends meet
and should expect to work into their 70's and beyond...despite the fact that there are no jobs
that people should expect to work for less, much less, than a living wage

And I love the new expectation that those over 55 should get used to not having a job.... and yet, medicare doesn't kick in until age 65. So, just when you are at the age when you start to REALLY need medical benefits and probably meds, too you are told that you are on your own... SS doesn't make an appearance until age 62. Ice Floe's anyone.

Seriously, Fk this sh*t... who are any one of them to bargain with our livelihoods??

All of this is done in such a matter of fact manner. You should of seen the hypocrisy shown when the Florida Legislature was asked to pay their fair share for healthcare...they pay no more than 100 bucks for an individual plan, and no more than 360 per year for the family plan.. yes, you read that right.

And, yet, here they are screaming bloody blue murder at the very thought of the ACA... better still, they have convinced the Floridiots that the ACA needs to be abolished because someone, anyone "MAY" get the benefits of the ACA for less than they will. Bonus points for suggesting that that "someone" will be an illegal immigrant or worse, GASP.. a welfare mother!!
And, NO, doesn't matter that they may need these benefits, too...nope.... they don't care as long as they are convinced that someone, anyone else is getting more of a benefit.

And that's the story here in Florida.

Sea


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RE: Romney's twelve million new jobs


Fresh from the Department of Suck-Up-Trickle-Down (maybe):

A Center for American Progress Action Fund analysis shows that, far from creating 12 million jobs, Romney's economic plan would kill 360,000 jobs in 2013 alone. But this discrepancy is perhaps less surprising considering that the same advisers who gave Romney his number - including economists Greg Mankiw and Glenn Hubbard, who both worked for former President George W. Bush - estimated that the Bush tax cuts would lead to massive job growth:

Back in 2001, as chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, Hubbard predicted that tax cuts slanted disproportionately to Americans in the topmost tier of income and wealth distribution would "quickly deliver a boost to move the economy back toward its long-run growth path," starting with adding 300,000 more jobs and half a percentage point to the 2002 growth rate.

Then in early 2003, as President Bush proposed another round of tax cuts, Hubbard predicted these would add another 1.4 million jobs to the U.S. economy, over and above the 3.1 million jobs the economy would create on its own from natural economic growth in that time. Mankiw - who took over for Hubbard as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers later in 2003 - co-signed a letter with Hassett (then-economist at the American Enterprise Institute) to President Bush "enthusiastically" endorsing more tax cuts because "it is fiscally responsible and it will create more employment [and] economic growth."

Unfortunately for American workers, these rosy predictions failed to pan out. In fact, total employment in the U.S. economy created only 2.4 million new jobs by the end of 2004, or less than half of what Hubbard predicted.

By 2007 the economy was running nearly 8 million jobs short of what Hubbard predicted.

So, Romney's "plan" not only won't create any jobs, it kills jobs. Bained indeed.

The same racket allover again.


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RE: Romney's twelve million new jobs

Been there done that with the Governor.

same old, same old and it just gets more and more tiring.


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RE: Romney's twelve million new jobs

Perhaps this explains the origin of these estimates. The guys advising Romney on his 12 million jobs plan (Greg Mankiw and Glenn Hubbard) both worked for former President George W. Bush and both served as chairman of his Council of Economic Advisers. They both supported massive tax cuts and estimated that the Bush tax cuts would lead to massive job growth. They only fell about 8 million jobs short.

The central premise of Gov. Romney's economic plan is nearly identical to that put into practice by President George W. Bush - cutting taxes aimed largely at the wealthy and big corporations in order to spur job creation and economic growth. Yet the opposite happened. We experienced a "jobless recovery" and the weakest economic expansion in post-World War II U.S. history under our last president - followed by the Great Recession of 2007-2009.

Back in 2001, as chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, Hubbard predicted that tax cuts slanted disproportionately to Americans in the topmost tier of income and wealth distribution would "quickly deliver a boost to move the economy back toward its long-run growth path," starting with adding 300,000 more jobs and half a percentage point to the 2002 growth rate.

Then in early 2003, as President Bush proposed another round of tax cuts, Hubbard predicted these would add another 1.4 million jobs to the U.S. economy, over and above the 3.1 million jobs the economy would create on its own from natural economic growth in that time. Mankiw - who took over for Hubbard as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers later in 2003 - co-signed a letter with Hassett (then-economist at the American Enterprise Institute) to President Bush "enthusiastically" endorsing more tax cuts because "it is fiscally responsible and it will create more employment [and] economic growth."

Unfortunately for American workers, these rosy predictions failed to pan out. (see Figure 1) In fact, total employment in the U.S. economy created only 2.4 million new jobs by the end of 2004, or less than half of what Hubbard predicted. By 2007 the economy was running nearly 8 million jobs short of what Hubbard predicted. He and his colleagues were off by a long shot.

Here is a link that might be useful: The same guys also behind same plan under Bush


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RE: Romney's twelve million new jobs

ROTFLMAO

The guy has lost his mind.


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RE: Romney's twelve million new jobs

Needs Imodium this trickle down has been running down the nations leg for years and it stinks as much now as when it started.


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