Personally, I don't put too much stock in the weather forecasters these days. They have a hard enough time predicting the weather for tomorrow, never mind 4 months from now. ;)

I heard this also, PM2, about the snowy winter. I dread it. It's not the snow itself that I mind, it's that I hate driving in it - or worse, I hate when my daughter is out driving in it. If it would only snow between midnight and 3AM, and then if only the road crews would get it plowed by 5 or 6AM, it could snow all it wanted to!

Dee

I agree bebe, that it is hard to take the long range forecasts serious, but still, I find myself more and more curious to see where it is all heading. Having the garden 3 weeks earlier than usual, in one season, seems such a drastic change this year, that I guess I am hoping it will be a fluke. I wouldn't want to see it make this drastic a change every year.

LOL Dee, you are too funny! I remember when I was in high school, we lived in an area that you could not access without going up a steep hill. Everyone in the family dreaded the winter, having to go up and down that hill in the snow and ice. And we were always worried about each other in the bad weather, waiting for someone to get home. We've lived in a very flat area for 30 years, and the degree of worry is drastically less. Plus two of our kids don't use a car, they use public transportation the majority of the time. Tell the truth though Dee, there's always something to worry about with your kids. If it's not driving in the snow, there's always something else. lol

And no matter how much we complain about our weather, we really do have it pretty good in comparison to much of the country. No tornados, no drought, no scorching three digit temperatures most of the summer. I just hope it stays that way. I do miss the more predictable weather of my youth. The seasons were more dependable. Winter started in November not January. Summer was comfortably warm except for a couple of weeks of a heat wave. I wonder if we are going to see that kind of weather patterns again.

Well if the Mayas were correct, it will all end on December 21st anyway. Personally I prefer to have the world continue beyond that date and deal with the snow!

{{gwi:5901}}

Yes, the world is going to end on December 21st. However, it is going to be reassembled to be precisely the same as it was before. Your consciousness is going to be reanimated into a new body, exactly the same as your current body. The proof would be in astronomical records, but the new editions will have been doctored.

It is all true, but nobody will be able to prove it ;-)

Well, geez, if my consciousness is going to be reanimated into a new body, can't it at least be a skinnier one? A younger one would be nice too, but I'd be happy with skinnier...

Dee

I agree with you both. And maybe taller and better hair too! While everything is being reordered, maybe add some trailing 0's to my bank balance?

{{gwi:5901}}

While they're busy making their weather prediction, do they have any stock tips for me? I'd love to make some money in the market this winter while suffering under all that snow they are predicting. (Sorry guys, but I don't think ANYTHING could be as bad as 2010-11.)

And since they are such climate geniuses, could they please convince the politicians and skeptics that global climate change is real? How about we take global climate change due to the emissions of greenhouse gases as seriously as their winter predictions?

[Sarcasm]

These long range predictions are really tough to make. Last year AccuWeather was VERY wrong about the winter forecast. And the fact is there is no clear climate signal between EL Nino and weather in New England. There are many other factors that must also be considered such as the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the Arctic Oscillation. Moreover, AccuWeather is saying something about the general storm track. But as we know, in these parts (but especially in SE New England which is most susceptible to snow changing to rain) a shift in the track of a noreaster by just 50 miles can mean the difference between a big snow or a big rain or a big miss. And these long range forecasts can't tackle these fine scale geographic issues.

And for what it is worth, the official forecast for winter issued by NOAA's Climate prediction center is for a higher chance of above normal temperatures for New England. But that doesn't say anything about snowfall. But there is one interesting correlation that has been established in New England. There is a higher probability of a snowier than normal winter following a colder than normal fall. Finally, I must take issue with this memory:

"I do miss the more predictable weather of my youth. The seasons were more dependable. Winter started in November not January. Summer was comfortably warm except for a couple of weeks of a heat wave. I wonder if we are going to see that kind of weather patterns again".

The data do not support this. We have warmed a bit since the 1970's but the seasonal fluctuations have not changed. The weather was not more predictable and seasons were not more dependable. If you look at the period from the 1950s to the 1970s you will find some of our hottest summers ever, some of the biggest snowstorms ever, some of the coldest winters ever, some of the warmest springs ever, October snows, record May snowstorms followed closely by heat waves, epic hurricanes, etc, etc.

So just sit back and enjoy the ride.

Hi Rockman, just saw your post. I know you are right about the inability to really predict the winter forecast. I don't even try to follow what they are talking about when they present data that support these predictions. It just always turns my attention to wondering what the winter will be like this year. Despite all their data, I don't think they know any more than the rest of us.

I don't live on the South Shore, but I do notice the differences in the forecast for that area when they present it. I seem to be on the line between two areas that get differing amounts of precipitation and we can go either way. Often when the communities around us are getting predicted amounts, we get something a little different.

And I will stick by my memory of what I've experienced over the years. For instance, in 2006, we had the warmest Fall that I could remember that just kept going and going, so late in fact, that on January 7th of 2007, I took photos of growing green plants and flowers in the garden. Something that had not happened ever in any year since I've been alive and this past winter was again significantly different from any winter I've lived through.

And I was unclear in what I was suggesting. I didn't mean that weather was more predictable. I meant the seasons were more what we stereotypically expect a season to represent. Fall weather in the fall, winter weather in the winter, etc. Just as it is pretty much hot and dry in Nevada, in New England you have seasons. Winter never included growing, blooming plants in January. Ever. We may have had a hot summer or two during the 20 year period from 1950 to 1970, but we also had plenty of summers with weather that was what we had come to expect in New England. We had the biggest snowstorms....yes, my suggestion is that we had more snow, spread out over November, December, January, February and March. And I'm sure once in awhile a winter with less snow than usual, but there was a 'usual'. And yes, a hotter summer than 'usual' once in awhile. And I remember one summer when it seemed to do nothing but rain that entire summer. I especially remember it because it was the year I had gone to summer camp and everything was always soaked and we couldn't get out and do all the great things you go to camp to do. It was cool, cloudy and damp just about that whole summer, but again, it was not the 'usual'. We would go back to the 'usual' after that deviation from it. It would not be what now seems like a progression to seasonal changes just as they have had to change the zone map for the country to reflect these changes.

We have to remember that weather and climate are not the same thing. Weather forecasting is far from perfect. Just ask anyone who lives in New England. Climate on the other hand changes over time. The world has seen many changes in climate in its fourteen billion years, and will continue to do so. Although things that we humans do (such as greenhouse gases) can affect things for us in our lifetimes, in the grand scheme of things we will make little difference. In a few million years New England could be in the southern hemisphere. Now having said all that, it still doesn't mean I can toss out my snow shovel! Personally I enjoyed the mild winter last year. I had winter jasmine COVERED with flowers on New Year's Day! But who's to say if it will happen again. One day, one season at a time. Enjoy the good days and grumble about the bad ones.....

{{gwi:5901}}

PrairieMoon:

I am a data junkie and a weather geek. Most of the time when I am on-line goofing off instead of working I am examining meteorological records for stations all over the country, but particularly New England. And all I can say is that the actual recorded meteorological observations from decades ago are not consistent with your memory. In fact, our memory about how the weather was decades ago, in comparison to the way it is now, is really really really bad. Our memories are very selective. Quick: What was the snowiest Feb on record? If you said 1978, congratulations, you are wrong by a LONG SHOT! But more importantly, we are really bad at translating qualitative observations, feelings, memories about how things were into actual hard numbers for comparative purposes. Do you really think that Farmer Brown in 1791 was able to remember how fury a wooly caterpillar was over a number of years and was able to correlate that with a qualitative feeling about seasonal temperature from year to year? No way. So here are a few examples. I looked at Boston snowfall and tallied the number of years per decade that January featured less than 10 inches, looking for decade long variations that might support a change in snowfall patterns:

1950's 4
1960's 4
1970's 4
1980's 5
1990's 3
2000's 6

A trend? Not consistent. Long term average seems to be about 4 Januarys per decade. The most lop-sided uneven snow year was 1968-1969. Very little snow fell in Dec, Jan, and Mar, but Feb that year had 41 inches, the snowiest Feb ever. And Jan that year had less than 1 inch...one of the least snowy ever. And then (I remember this) that Feb snow melted rapidly in March causing epic flooding in SE Mass that was worse than the March floods from a few years ago. So there is no evidence in the data that snowfall used to be more evenly distributed. Last winter a total of only 9.3 inches of snow fell in Boston. That was amazing. But it wasn't the record. 1936-1937 is the least snow in history...9 inches. The snowiest winter ever was 1995-1996 at 107 inches.

Now consider temperature. One of the coolest summers in recorded history at Boston was 1992. 2000 was also a top 10 cool summer over the last 50 years or so. The hottest month ever is July 1983 with a mean temp of 78. The coldest December ever and one of the coldest months ever was December of 1989 with a mean temp of 21.7. Jan of 1981 had a mean of 21.3 and there is a scattering of a few similarly cold months earlier in the 20th century, and Jan of 2004 of course. Hottest April ever? 1976. So, I guess what I am trying to show is that it is all over the place. Month to month variations still fluctuate in crazy ways. Some years have seasonal temperatures that are closer to the long term normal. Others show crazy fluctuations. That has not changed. But "hidden" within all of this fluctuation is a long term increase in mean temperature by about a few tenths of a degree per decade. What that means is that when that crazy cold month hits us again, it will be a bit warmer (but still wicked cold) than it would have been in the absence of global warming. And when that wicked cool summer happens? It will be a bit warmer than wicked cool summers 100 years ago. Think of a crazy zig zag pattern on a graph with the overall trend being warmer with time. But the crazy zig zags are always there.

Hi Rockman,

I think it's fabulous that you have such a fascination with weather data. I can hear your excitement and we've all been there with one thing or another that fascinates us. The internet and it's access to data does allow us to delve into something we are curious about like we never could before.

When I was much younger, I used to be more fascinated with data, but I've seen enough times, when data can be skewed by the person's bias, or twisted to someone's agenda, so I don't view it as the goldmine of evidence that I once thought it was. I believe that data does not tell the whole story either. And when you sideline the contribution of personal experience when evaluating any particular situation, I think you lose something valuable.

So, I still stand by my original suggestion that the weather is changing in significant ways that most people can pick up on in subtle and not so subtle ways. I find all those fun facts very interesting, but it doesn't change my conclusions based on my own experiences. Although you're free to base your conclusions on the data and your translation of it.

Weather changes all the time for sure, but a lifetime or even a couple of hundred years of weather data isn't nearly enough to make conclusions or predictions about climate. Climate changes happen over millennia. But as I said before, I, for one, enjoy the mild winters whenever we are lucky enough to have them. I know the ski lovers out there disagree, but since I don't ski, I'd rather be happy that I don't have to shovel the walks and driveway. My lower back agrees completely!

{{gwi:5901}}

I'm enjoying the comments on this thread because "the weather" is always such a big topic here in New England. I'm with you, PM2! I'd much rather tackle our variable weather conditions --- temperature fluctuations, snowstorms, power outages, and periodic hurricanes --- than the severe droughts and tornados Mother Nature sends to other parts of our country.

If you don't LOVE winter here in NE, you have to at least learn how to tolerate it. Dee and Bill --- you are soooo right that it's the driving in and shoveling of snow that causes me the most aggravation. In my younger days, I'd be right out there with my shovel as the snow was falling. Now when it snows, I'm more likely to make a cup of tea and watch the weather channel so I can figure out how long it will take to melt. (Not having to go out unless I want to is one of the perks of retirement.)

However, on the issue of climate change ---- I join all of you who worry about global warming and how much humans are affecting the "natural" climatic changes that Rockman talks about. Regarding climatic predictions, my DH also has one. His dream has always been to have a home at the shore, something right on the ocean. We were lucky to find this house on a tidal river that meanders to the sound. He often jokes (also with sarcasm) that someday our home will be on the water, thanks to global warming.

Molie

Molie I agree with you about the benefits of being retired! "I just don't WANT to go out now!" has become an acceptable declaration.

As for our impact on the Earth, I have to disagree a bit. True, in the short-term scheme of things some of our actions influence our environment. But long-term, we are insignificant. There was a time when the entire planet was a ball cf ice, long before mammals, let alone humans, existed. And in the age of dinosaurs, the tropics extended nearly to the poles. Continents and oceans have come and gone. In a few million years New England could be in the southern hemisphere while Africa moves over the north pole for all we know. The planet has warmed and cooled many, many times in its fourteen billion year history. It will continue to do so, despite anything we mere mortals can do. We can no more save the planet than we can destroy it. BUT, what we CAN save is ourselves and our immediate environment. and, yes, maybe the weather trends short-term. I'd be more likely to rally behind a "Save the humans!" banner than one that has the impossible words "Save the planet!" written on it.

{{gwi:5901}}

You can't change the data, but the bias is loud and clear. Bill, how could you possibly love our miserable winter last year? It was AWFUL! I had to ski on manmade snow almost the whole winter. I moved away from the south to get the real stuff, and lots of it.

What an awful winter last year was.

And that, my fellow gardeners, is bias at its best!

Deanna,
I don't like snow and cold so much. When I was younger, it wasn't a problem. I've lived here my whole life. But now, I will gladly take a mild winter when one comes along. And the plants in my garden seem to like the mild winters too. Flowers in bloom in January? Works for me.

{{gwi:5901}}

Based on the acorns that are coming down, I predict slightly above average snowfall.
This is my new snowfall gauge! Our snowiest winter was preceded by a heavy acorn crop. In fact, it was so heavy that we had to shovel the acorns into a wheelbarrow. If you think that is a strange thing to do, try walking on a whole yard of "marbles" without breaking an arm or leg!
The acorns this year seem much bigger in size too. I don't know what that could mean...bigger snowstorms?
Susan

Edit>>> In one of my posts, "fourteen billion" should be "four billion"..........either way of course, a long, long time!

{{gwi:5901}}

Deanna, we don't have any oaks in our yard, but our neighbors across the street have two large ones and acorns are falling like missiles into our yard. I'm not sure what that means, weather-wise, but the squirrels are loving it.

Often our winters here can be pretty mild, which is sad for snow lovers like you. You should generally do much better, snow-wise, up in New Hampshire than here along the coast. Still ---I do remember some hard winters with very heavy snows. How many of you were around for the blizzard of '78 when all the highways were closed by the governor? Now that was a doozy!

Molie