Today's TorCon Index Numbers for OK

12 years ago

Dr. Forbes from The Weather Channel has a Tornado Condition Index where he assigns a risk factor number from 0 to 10 to different regions. A '5', for example, means there is a 50% chance a tornado will occur within 50 miles of the risk area. I have followed his TorCon Index since last year, and find it to be a useful tool, along with NWS forecasts and information from local meteorologists, storm spotters and emergency management personnel.

For South Central KS/North Central Oklahoma, the TorCon is 8. That is a serious number.

For South Central OK/North Central TX, the TorCon is 6.

For North East Oklahoma, the TorCon is 5-6.

I've linked the TorCon Index page below so you can check it if you wish to see what his TorCon Index is for other areas. You also can read his 'scale' that describes what each number means in terms of high risk, moderate risk, etc.

Dawn

Here is a link that might be useful: TorCon Index

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Comments (5)

eakem
12 years ago
Dawn,
Out of curiosity, do you know what number Dr. Forbes had assigned for NE Oklahoma and SW Missouri on Sunday evening?

Shad
mksmth zone 7a Tulsa Oklahoma
12 years ago
i just looked at this and ok north-central is a 9. not good at all. I cant find one but it would be nice if they had a map with "zones" indicating what they call north central. I assume it would be OKC- Tulsa. It seems the big storms always follow I-44 from OKC to tulsa and then fizzle out when they hit the river
Okiedawn OK Zone 7
Original Author
12 years ago
I just got back from buying tornado supplies and need to stock the cellar, so I'll pop back out to do that in a second. I came here to post the new numbers, but wonder if maybe I should do it on a new thread that will be a bit more eyecatching.

DH, who is the chief of our local VFD, scared me by buying cans of fluorescent paint to use in searches of homes if we have a tornado. I know it is important to be prepared, but....watching him buy that paint just sent a chill up my spine. Even though we all know a tornado "could" hit any of us, we never think it will specifically hit our homes, our communities, our friends and families. DH has worked in law enforcement for 30 years and doesn't scare easily. This is as 'spooked' as I've ever seen him. (He got started on the 'spooking' early at a county-wide fire planning meeting last night during which they discussed the emergency plans for today.)

For anyone who doesn't already know, Dr. Forbes raised the NE OK--SE KS TorCon from an 8 to a 9. He raised the SC OK TorCon to a 7, but left the NC TX TorCon at 6. I believe the rest of OK still has the 5-6 it had earlier.

Shad, I need to go back and find the old thread I posted on Sunday. I am sure it had those TorCon Index numbers. I believe SW MO and NE OK had a 6 or 7. I am not positive, but I think Dr. Forbes has only given a '9' twice before: once last year for Yazoo City, MS, which had a massive tornado that day...think it was the last Saturday or next-to-last Saturday in April 2010 and bet you could google and find it. Then, about a month or so ago, he gave Tuscaloosa a '9' and we all know what happened that day.

I'm going to quickly write the new TorCon and add a couple more key facts, especially for Sooner folks.....

Then, I'll stock my cellar and be back here in a jiffy to find Sunday's TorCon number.

I don't know either where they stop referring to an area as northcentral versus northeast. If I have time, I'll try to find out.

If I was in Tulsa, I'd want to say I was in NE OK, but for NWS purposes, I don't know where the line breaksbetween NE/NC.

Dawn

Here is a link that might be useful: New TorCon Numbers Here
OkiePokie
12 years ago
If one good thing can come out of my experience in joplin over the weekend is that I finally managed to drive home to my wife why I take tornado threats so seriously. She used to laugh at me for demanding everyone get silent and listen anytime the weather radio goes off and my insistance at turning it to the news whenever it started raining. She won't do that anymore now. She always wondered why everyone in oklahoma acted like an amateur meterologist. She thought my training was driving me to over react and over prepare... Now she understands. I am just sorry that it took a disaster to drive it home to her. Most of the people who work emergency situations get it, I am glad that you post this and get the information out there. Even if people dont think they want or need the information it needs to be available. I have a buddy who is a meterologist here and it never ceases to amaze him how people will call to complain if he interupts a television show to explain that a tornado is coming. The station gets at least one call every time it happens. If people would pay more attention and be better prepared for disasters then your husband and millions of other first responders would have a lot less work and a lot emergency managers would be out of a job.
Okiedawn OK Zone 7
Original Author
12 years ago
Shad,

You can see the TorCon numbers for last Sunday on the thread below. At first, they had one number, and then later in the day, Dr. Forbes raised them a little.

The numbers Sunday were not nearly as high as they are today.

After watching Dr. Forbes' TorCon for the last two years, I will say that when he gives anyone a '6', they have some sort of severe weather, and it usually includes tornadoes. When he gives an '8' or higher, that area usually has a catastrophic storm that does very severe damage.

I have a feeling he'll never give an area a "10", but I think if he ever were to do that, it would be on a day like today.

Dawn

Here is a link that might be useful: Sunday'sTorCon thread here