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Sunday's Severe Weather Forecast

Okiedawn OK Zone 7
10 years ago

In case anyone has been hiding in a cave and missed all the severe weather talk and forecasting, here's a head's up!

Severe Weather, including strong winds, large and damaging hail and tornadoes are possible in many parts of the state today and in adjacent areas. In fact, today's Severe Weather will extend very far north and even Iowa has a high tornado potential today.

Meanwhile, at the southwestern end of the state, a Red Flag Fire Warning is in effect this afternoon and evening where high temperatures are expected to easily exceed 100 degrees, gusty winds will be blowing and the relative humidity is forecast to bottom out in the single digits in some areas.

For those of you who follow Dr. Greg Forbes and his TorCon forecast, when I checked it this morning, he has a 7 on Central and Northeastern OK. On a scale that tops out at 10, a seven is fairly serious.

The NWS in both Tulsa and Norman have fantastic graphics and info on their websites and I encourage everyone to visit the website of their weather forecast office for the most current information.

For anyone fairly new to OK and/or severe weather, keep in mind that tornadoes can form without warning when the conditions are right so you need to be aware of your surroundings at all times. They also can form in areas near Tornado Watch areas but which do not have a Tornado Watch, so don't feel like you're 100% safe if the Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch area is near you but doesn't include your county. That does not mean you're out of the woods. When you have a watch or warning near you, you should know that similar conditions possibly could affect you even if you are outside the watch or warning area.

It is nice when the NWS is able to warn us and when local TV stations can provide practically street by street warnings in real time, but we all need to remember that if a tornado forms suddenly right over your head or very close to you, the NWS and media warnings that follow won't be early enough for you. Keep an eye on your skies.

Today the storm initiation could begin as early as 2 pm if the conditions come together that early so be prepared for an earlier start than we saw yesterday.

If strong hail, high winds or a tornado threaten your area, remember to seek shelter in an interior room or closet on the lowest floor of your home, preferably in a room with no windows. In the absence of a tornado shelter or a concrete and steel safe room, they are your safest location. It is never recommended that you get into your car and try to outrun a storm.

I'm going to link the SPC's Convective Outlook for today before I head out. I'll be back in around noon to monitor for the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Tornado Watch, but if one of y'all see something like that first, please post it on this forum!

We have some forum members who are in remote areas or where they are low in valleys and their reception of media information or weather radio alerts can be blocked by the surrounding land that is of a higher elevation, so for some people, this forum often gives them their first alert that a storm is developing in their area.

If you have smart phones, many weather apps are available that will send storm warnings right to you once they are issued.

Be sure the alert feature on your All Hazards/Weather Radio is "on". If your area loses power and if cell towers are damaged and you are cut off from communication with the rest of the world, remember that text messages often get through even when you cannot make phone calls.

Stay safe everyone. Today's weather has the potential to be seriously bad.

Finally, I listened to Dr. Forbes on TWC earlier and he mentioned that storms may start firing up near OKC and then move towards Tulsa, so I think that for all of us, that was a great clue about what to expect.

When you click on the link to read the convective outlook, you can see the risk areas highlighted in different colors. If you want to see the specific risk areas for tornadoes, hail or wind, click on the black boxes near the top of the page that contain those words and you can see what your specific risk of each of those is for your area.

Dawn

Here is a link that might be useful: SPC's Convective Outlook Day 1

Comments (6)

  • ReedBaize
    10 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Dawn,

    KOCO and KFOR here in OKC are predicting that the storms will form in the Mustang/Yukon area and move quickly over the OKC area, strengthening as they move towards the Tulsa area. I don't know how reliable those guesstimations are but, hopefully, they'll hold true.

    Reed

  • wulfletons
    10 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    I keep reminding myself that I have a good job and a lovely home and a happy life and that moving to OK was the right thing for my family, but threats of baseball sized hail and tornadoes are sure making me homesick.

    We are going to OKC for my nieces birthday party this afternoon, which means the dog will be at home by himself for the beginning of the storms. We may lock him in the interior, windowless bathroom just to be as safe as possible.

    I hope that this turns out to be nothing and that everyone stays safe!

  • ReedBaize
    10 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    wulfleton...

    I agree. I would say that I'd be happier back home in Texas but, if I was, I would have been hiding from the Granbury tornado of last week.

    Reed

  • Okiedawn OK Zone 7
    Original Author
    10 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Reed, I feel sorry for Tulsa. This morning Dr. Forbes distinctly mentioned Tulsa having a '7' TorCon more than he mentioned OKC, though at one point he said the storms would form near OKC and move towards Tulsa. The issue will be how violent they are when they form...even if they form in the OKC area, they could be violent from the start or they might gain in strength as discrete cells merge together into a squall line. I think today I wouldn't want to be in Iowa either.

    We have crazy wind here today. I guess it must be from outflow boundaries from yesterday's storms. I have gigantic trees north of my garden and they were dancing back and forth in the wind so much that it was scaring me and I came inside to get away from them. If a tree is going to fall on my garden, it needs to do it while I am not in the garden.

    Wulfleton, I am sorry you're feeling homesick. Count your blessings every single day because you do have a lot to be grateful for. Oklahoma has beautiful weather in April and October. The rest of the year we just cringe, hold our breath and hope for the best. The good thing is that once you have learned how to successfully garden in OK, you can garden anywhere.

    Today's weather likely won't turn out to be nothing, but maybe we'll luck out and the worst storms will hit sparsely populated areas so at least fewer people are harmed that way.

    Dawn

  • Okiedawn OK Zone 7
    Original Author
    10 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    The NWS has issued a Tornado Watch for two areas...but neither involves OK at this point. You can see the current tornado watch areas on the Active Watch and Warning Map.

    On the Active Watch and Warning Map, the color yellow indicates an active Tornado Watch. To see the list of all the colors and what they indicate, click on the MAP FAQ. A couple of severe thunderstorms already are popping up, but not in OK.

    Now that the storms are popping, it should start happening pretty quickly. If things aren't happening in OK by 3 pm, well......I then bet they'll start between 3 and 4 pm.

    The Great Tornado Chase team from TWC is near Wichita, Kansas, so let's assume that is sort of good news for OK, though it might be bad news for KS.

    Dawn

    Here is a link that might be useful: Active Watch and Warning Map

  • Okiedawn OK Zone 7
    Original Author
    10 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Some severe thunderstorms are active in several states. I think the NWS shortly will issue a Tornado Warning for the storm SW of Wichita.

    Thunderstorms are popping up in NW OK too. Looks like it could be a long afternoon/evening.