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scottokla

Well, this kind of stinks (rain prediction).

scottokla
9 years ago

Looks like the models think we will get an inch or less through Monday. That's half of the prediction from yesterday. We struck out here (like most of the state) yesterday, getting only a couple tenths.

If we don't get a good 2-inch rain soon, we will need to get lucky this summer.

Comments (15)

  • scottokla
    Original Author
    9 years ago

    It's looking better today, but it will be just 50 miles between .5 inch area and 2+ inch areas Monday. Tulsa to Ardmore is the current forecast line dividing lucky from unlucky.

  • oldokie
    9 years ago

    where do you get your weather models
    I am now watering have left most of my warm season crops not planted dry down 3 inches
    got enough rain to color soil well less than .05 nothing in rain gauge

  • scottokla
    Original Author
    9 years ago

    Not looking promising. Not for a big rain at least, unless you are in the southeast,

    I have two places that I check regularly. One is the NAM model and the other is the NWS precip prediction. The NWS has been linked recently by Dawn and here is the NAM.

    Here is a link that might be useful: NAM precip 7-day model loop

  • Okiedawn OK Zone 7
    9 years ago

    Oldokie, If you go the page with the Qualitative Precipitation Forecast that I've linked below, you can see what is forecast for various time periods of one day through seven days. It even breaks down Day 1 into 6 hour blocks. The QPF updates regularly, so I usually check it 2 or 3 times a day. The more desperate we are for rain, the more often I check it---not that checking it more often makes the rain actually fall or anything.

    We almost never get the amount of rain the QPF says we'll get. Usually we get far less than is predicted, but every now and then we get a lot more. For us, the QPF is wrong so often that my husband doesn't even want me to finish the sentence when I start out by saying...."the QPF shows we are going to get......". I keep telling him that eventually the odds will catch up with us and it will be right one of these times.

    The rainfall at our place is about one-third of what it should be, based on 30-year averages, at this time of the year. It will take a lot of rain to make up the current year's rainfall deficit and I'm not expecting it to happen. I'm just dreading a long, dry summer. There's as many snakes in my garden now as I usually see in July or August when it is ridiculously hot and miserable. I'm not sure why the snakes are so abundant right now. Maybe they are hungry and looking for something to eat.

    Dawn

    Here is a link that might be useful: HPC's Qualitative Precipitation Forecasts

  • mksmth zone 7a Tulsa Oklahoma
    9 years ago

    I was really hoping for some good rain today. Fox 23 was saying 80% chance of 3/4-1 inch today. doesnt look very promising.

    mike

  • lat0403
    9 years ago

    It's pouring here! It's been raining for a while. Mesonet says 0.07" so far. I'm on the other side of town so it may be more here. It seems like more than that. I'll have to check my rain gauge when I get home. Hopefully it keeps it up.

    Leslie

  • chickencoupe
    9 years ago

    I was standing in the rain watering the garden with a hose. Because I knew it wouldn't be significant. So far, I'm right. Maybe tonightâ¦.

  • TotemWolf
    9 years ago

    I had two tenths in the rain gauge after this mornings rain. That makes 0.8 inches this month and just over 1.5 for the year.

  • chickencoupe
    9 years ago

    The rains came. They were pathetic. Chance of precipitation the remainder of this eve have been reduced to 20%. sigh

  • mksmth zone 7a Tulsa Oklahoma
    9 years ago

    Well its been a mix of light rain to pretty heavy for about 3 or 4 hours here in bixby. I Dont have a rain gauge but mesonet says .20". I think its quiet a bit more with more to come. Wish it would have hit western OK a little more.

    Mike

  • oldbusy1
    9 years ago

    last I looked my gauge was showing 4.5" that's a lot in a short time.

  • Okiedawn OK Zone 7
    9 years ago

    Robert, Your place is in the right place at the right time! lol

    Now, let's hope it soaks in and helps everything grow like mad.

    I was watching the rain training over your area and thinking that somebody was either going to be really happy or really unhappy---depending on whether the rain was really needed or if it was just too much at one time.

    You got as much rain in a few hours as we've accumulated in 4 months.

    We have had decent rain---almost a half-inch by late afternoon, and slow, intermittent rain after that which might add up to another tenth or two. I'm not going out in the dark to check the rain gauge.

    We got caught up in "your" rain while traveling back home from a visit to several nurseries in the D-FW metro area. The clouds were just black as could be and ready to dump a lot of moisture. I was watching the radar and the weather warnings on my phone while Tim was driving. The first big round of rain hit us on I-35 around Denton and then we were in it almost all the way to Gainesville. At times, travel on the interstate was flying up the highway at the amazing speed of 35 miles per hour because the hard rain was hampering visibility.

    I was hoping we were getting rain like that back home, but we weren't. It was much lighter at home and only fell for about 15 minutes in the initial storm and then sporadically and lightly after that. Now I know where all "my" rain went----it went to your place. Enjoy it!

    Dawn

  • slowpoke_gardener
    9 years ago

    I don't have a rain gauge mounted, but have been having a good rain, and is still raining. I planted beans, okra and a tomato plant before the rain started.

    Larry

  • Okiedawn OK Zone 7
    9 years ago

    Larry, You always have rain. I am just green with envy. I know, though, that there are times when you get too much rain and it can be as much of a hindrance as a help. I'd just like to be hindered by having too much rain every now and then too.

    We ended up with 0.68" in our rain gauge. That's a pretty decent amount for the way this year has gone so far. That piddly amount of rain will keep me out of the garden for today, most likely, but I'll be back out there again tomorrow. I don't like it when we get such heavy rainfall that I cannot work in the garden soil for days and days.

    Dawn

  • slowpoke_gardener
    9 years ago

    Dawn, we did get a very nice rain, I expect it must have 2+ inches, but we were still able to walk in the garden and harvest turnips, spinach and broccoli today. The soil is much too wet to work, and too soft to walk on where I tilled yesterday.

    I will have to replant squash. I have yet to plant Tromboncino and cantaloupes, the water melons are just now coming up along with okra and cucumber. I seems as though my timing is always off.

    Larry