If a weak el nino does develop, doesn't that mean we south-central USAers tend to the warm and the dry during winter? Sigh. At least a weak el nino probably won't cause too much trouble with the harvests in Asia.

Well, often an El Nino pattern bring wet and cool weather to the southern US more or less from Texas eastward toward Florida. I'm at the far south end of OK, so I usually get whatever Texas gets.

It isn't engraved in stone though, because El Nino is only one factor, and many factors combine to give us whatever weather we get. For those of us here in OK, the La Nina weather pattern we've had the last two years has brought us extreme heat and drought. So, at this point, let's hope an El Nino pattern develops and combines with other climatic patterns to give us a wet, cool winter. Some drought relief and heat relief would be nice.

I'd rather see a strong El Nino than a weak one, but any El Nino at all should be good news for us, I think. However, if the El Nino is weak and short-lived we might find 2013 to be about as disappointing, weather-wise as 2011 and 2012. Who needs that?

I am not sure how strong the El Nino has to be in order for us to have a wet winter in the south, and so far it looks like the developing El Nino, if it develops, may be a weak one. I hope that doesn't mean a dry winter for us.

I haven't looked at the El Nino update lately, partly because I am afraid they'll say something like "oops, it's not happening" or something similar.

However, the way that the hurricanes have developed and mostly missed the USA this year seems to be what often occurs when an El Nino is developing, so maybe that is a good sign.

Here is a link that might be useful: Effect of El Nino On USA Weather