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jimhardy_gw

If your a weather watcher-next week could get interesting

jimhardy
11 years ago

Scientific forecaster discussion;

This weekend...deep vortex in Canada drops southward sending a
series of stronger troughs/clippers farther south into the Midwest
with each system bringing progressively colder air. European model (ecmwf) brings a
strong cold front across the County Warning Area Saturday into Saturday night and
just clips our far northern counties with some light snow or
flurries. Will maintain a dry forecast for now but will need to
monitor for possible expansion of the snow area to the south. Lows
Saturday night will dip into the single digits and teens with highs
on Sunday in the teens to lower 20s.

Early next week...much stronger storm system pushes into the
Midwest/Great Lakes releasing a chunk of very cold Arctic air
southward across much of the eastern half of the nation. The
European model (ecmwf)/GFS brings -26 to -27c 850 mb temperatures into the dvn County Warning Area on
Monday as the polar jet drops south of our area. This airmass is
originating from an area in Canada that had maximum temperatures
yesterday of 25 below zero. Always concerned with such a strong
Arctic front that this will generate a period of accumulating snow
on the leading edge and just behind the front along with strong
winds with such strong cold air advection. This will need to be
monitored as we get closer to the event.

The coldest air in 4 years will be arriving and depending on how
much snow is on the ground the potential is there for some locations
to have maximum temperatures below zero. This has not happened since
January 15 2009. For now the model consensus is to have highs in the
single digits and teens on Monday and then as low as 5 below on
Monday night. However...any snow on the ground would allow for even
colder readings. In addition...operational models have a difficult
time with extreme events and may not be latching onto the severity
of the airmass this far out in time. Operational models have been
consistent with this scenario so confidence is high. Bottom line...
temperatures may be much colder than depicted and the Midwest will
be in for a shock when this airmass arrives. The good news is it
appears temperatures quickly moderate by the middle of next week as
zonal flow returns ahead of another fresh supply of Arctic air
dropping into the northern plains. However...strong warm air
advection may also bring accumulating snow to the County Warning Area by middle week.

Comments (28)

  • islandbreeze
    11 years ago

    Hopefully this super cold weather will stay north of the southern great lakes. So far, Monday's forecast is very cold, high of 20 and low of 12, but at least it's not single digit temps. And if that model is correct, by midweek, things will warm up. 20/12 is cold, but it could be a lot colder here in the dead of winter. As long as it stays out of the single digits, we should be fine and we'll technically still be having a zone 8 winter, although probably the coldest a zone 8 winter could get.

  • chadec
    11 years ago

    I do think winter is on the way. I just hope it doesnt hang around. I see a warm up at the end of Jan. Will be heading to the coast at the end of Feb. Really hoping for an early spring.

  • tropicalzone7
    11 years ago

    weather.com has us going down to 13F next tuesday, that day has definitely been the one to watch. Models started off by predicting a potential snow storm, then a sunny but cold day, now it looks like it might be one of the coldest days of the winter (hopefully we wont get much colder than 13F this year, but anything is possible since there is still a good 6 weeks of meteorological winter left!). Usually if we havent gotten really bad cold by mid February then we are in the clear and it doesnt seem like anything record breaking is on the way so hopefully it stays that way and we go through another winter without anything landscape changing happening!
    -Alex

  • miketropic
    11 years ago

    we had a nice little ice storm with some snow on the tail of it..never got below 30f though so I was alright with it. supposed to hit 45 today so it should all melt off

  • tropicbreezent
    11 years ago

    I'm an avid weather watcher too, but dealing with mainly the other end of the scale. Tonight, 10PM, the temp is 28C and humidity 80%. Of course the palms are loving it. But there's a possible cyclone developing to our east. Hopefully we'll get the rain and no more from it. Rainfall this season is well below normal so far.

    Since it's one of my interests I see a few weather reports on a number of sites/forums. I do the southern hemisphere cyclone season thread on the IPS site. But I certainly don't envy people who have to deal with sub-freezing weather. Wishing you all a speedy return to near tropical conditions.

  • islandbreeze
    11 years ago

    Well Jim, that forecast looks pretty accurate. As of tonight, our Monday and Tuesday night forecasts are predicted at 7 and 9 degrees. We will see how things turn out. The lakes are not frozen over at all, and we just had a 50 degree day today, so hopefully the warmer water will buffer temps, and maybe even keep us out of the single digits. So far, our lowest temp has been 10 degrees.

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    11 years ago

    Looks like the brunt of it goes over the lakes-not
    quite as bad here as they were originally saying but still cold.

    Luckily no snow cover here to keep/make it super cold.

  • User
    11 years ago

    Last two days have been in the 50's under clear skies. Now there is the arctic front working in soon.. Under high wind warnings--yet again. Even with the cold coming, does not seem like a 'normal' Winter. Been a while for one of those! Cold is just not consistent and past two seasons have seen very little snow, though enough precip to keep the soil moisture good.

  • miketropic
    11 years ago

    I think the forcast said tonight through wed. night we were suppose to get into some single digits..which I have seen in about 5 years then back to the normal 30f nights. I hope there wrong oh I hope there wrong.

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    11 years ago

    Yesterday was gorgeous here 56F and sunny-went for a nice bike ride....

    Cold for a while but I do see upper 50s back at the end of
    the 10 day with thunderstorms possible...still a long way off though..

  • tropicalzone7
    11 years ago

    We had really beautiful weather yesterday also. Got to 56F and really nice and sunny (very windy though!). Looks like the cold is just about here, but I also see some nicer temps at the end of the 10 day. I can get through this cold knowing that a break from the cold is around the corner!
    -Alex

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    11 years ago

    For sure,I like being able to lift the covers and give the palms some fresh air......
    not to mention getting out on the bike.

  • miketropic
    11 years ago

    its already colder here now at 8:30 pm than it has been all winter, 18F now. I really hope the low isnt what there predicting 10F..update in the morning

  • neonrider
    11 years ago

    They've been working really hard spraying the skies with chemicals (chemtrails, geo-engineering, the entire sky is ugly-white) to make tomorrow a really cold night, yet where i am the climate quickly turned from Zone 8A into Zone 9A/9B in the last 2 winters there were no temps below 22F and trhis winter the coldest it got was 28F and 27F coming tomorrow night, which still makes it a Zone 9B weather.

  • miketropic
    11 years ago

    it hit 10 degrees on my way home this morning..guess I better throw my zone upgrade hopes out the window.

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    11 years ago

    -1F at the airport north of here,a mild 1F at my place(-;

    Still holding on to no sub zero temps at my place-longest streak ever to my knowledge....as we did not get below zero last winter.

  • miketropic
    11 years ago

    maybe I can at least hope for a zone 7...maybe lol

  • islandbreeze
    11 years ago

    Well last night we got down to zero. The weather people were pretty inaccurate, as they predicted 7 degrees for a low. They said this is the coldest we've got down to in years. Only low teens for a high. Tonight is also supposed to get down to single digits, only not as cold as last night. We will see...Next week we do start to thaw out.

  • miketropic
    11 years ago

    about the same here. last nights low was 10 at my work 8 in my yard. high today only reached 21..tonight suppose to be around 12 and then back to a warm up. I think monday and tuesday are rain with a low of 45 LOL I love midwest weather

  • LagoMar
    11 years ago

    Va Bch had our first hard freeze this season dropping to 25 overnight. Not even to get out of the 30s today. Winter finally made it. Sigh.

  • williamr
    11 years ago

    That's amazing that VA Beach (assuming it has still not officially dipped below 25F this winter) is having a zone 9b winter thus far. There are many areas of North FL that have been colder this winter, though the average temps in SE VA are MUCH colder than anywhere in FL. Here in the Orlando area, we have bottomed out in the mid 30s so far this winter.

  • miketropic
    11 years ago

    they were fairly accurate here we ended up with a low of 8 one night and 14 the next. There was suppose to be a large snow storm come and dump on us yesterday but it was a few flakes of nothing.

  • LagoMar
    11 years ago

    We dropped to 24 the following night. But the big story is that the following day we were blessed with just under 2" of snow.

  • User
    11 years ago

    Lowest was 10 F. a few nights ago. There was one inch of fine snow that covered everything overnight. Still arctic cold but very bright due to snow cover and stronger sun, and wind is gone. Interesting to see how the plants change in appearance during these events--rhododendron and Aucuba leaves fold. Now that it is a tad milder, see the Trachys looking better. Amazing! Supposed to hit 50 f. In a few days with showers. Basically though been a dry winter. Saw an extended forecast calling for colder than normal for February in the East, then much warmer than normal March and April in the East.

  • statenislandpalm7a
    11 years ago

    Last tuesday my indoor/outdoor thermometer recorded 7.5 degrees in my yard even though the news predicted 11. Last year the coldest my yard got was 14 degrees. This year is significantly colder.

  • LagoMar
    11 years ago

    It took longer to get started but now that its finally here this winter is worse than last. Still not as bad as 2009-10 and 2010-11 yet though. I hope that long range for a cold February is wrong though.

  • User
    11 years ago

    I also hope March and April are not HOT and DRY with wildfires breaking out all over the place. Last Spring was frightening!

  • prinbama
    11 years ago

    Well so far, Here in North alabama the lowest has been 24f ( about 2 weeks ago) since then the overnight temps have been above 25f. I check on my Protected palms every day and My washy and Pindo palms are doing just fine. Havent really used any heat. Looking forward to Spring to see the amazing growth they will have.