LURKING JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF CURRENT LONG TERM IS TRANSITION TO
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR... AS HUDSON BAY VORTEX DIVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO DISLODGE CHUNK OF ARCTIC
AIR SENDING IT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION BY MON JAN 21ST /MARTIN
LUTHER KING DAY/. 00Z GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO... ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH MAGNITUDE OF
COLD AIR WITH GFS ADVERTISING 850 MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -25C ON MON WHILE
ECMWF EVEN MORE BRUTAL AT -30C TO -33C BY 00Z TUE. REGARDLESS...
UNLESS SOMETHING DRASTICALLY CHANGES WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTREMELY
COLD PERIOD AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEK OF JAN 21-25TH... WITH THE
MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCE IN MODELS GENERALLY EQUATING TO WHETHER OR NOT
IT WILL BE RECORD BREAKING COLD. IF MEMORY SERVES CORRECT THE LAST
TIME WE`VE SEEN ANYTHING AS COLD AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS WAS JAN `09
WHEN THE MORNING OF JAN 16TH SEVERAL SITES TIED OR BROKE ALL TIME
JAN RECORD LOWS... WITH LOWS THAT MORNING DROPPING TO AROUND -30F IN
SOME AREAS. LOOKING AT THE 12Z/16TH 850 MB TEMPS THEY WERE AROUND
-20C OR A LITTLE COLDER. THE KEY WAS MUCH OF THE REGION WAS SITTING
ON 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW COVER AFTER A COUPLE OF HEAVY SNOW EVENTS
JUST DAYS APART AND WITHIN A WEEK PRIOR TO THE 16TH. SO... UNLESS
SOMETHING DRAMATICALLY AND TERRIBLY UNFORESEEN OCCURS WITHOUT THE DEEP
SNOWCOVER WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEEING ANY RECORD COLD POTENTIAL... THAT
IS... UNLESS THE HI-RES ECMWF WERE TO MAINTAIN 850 MB TEMPS OF -30C
TO -33C INTO TUE MORNING. THESE 850 MB TEMPS FROM ECMWF IN JUST THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK SFC RIDGING... LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WOULD SUPPORT LOWS NEAR TO ROUGHLY 3 DEGS BELOW THE PROGGED 850 MB
TEMPS... OR GENERALLY NEAR RECORD COLD LEVELS OF AROUND -20F TO -27F.