A few thought s about this pattern(shift???)

11 years ago

I prefer the term climate change and in the spirit of John Lennon,I would take it another step
and say,"instant climate change"(is going to get you)....I have kept an open mind about global warming
and such but what I see happening is what we may call "the usual extremes" running almost on top of each other.
We may see the coldest March in history here this year and this directly following one of-if not thee-warmest
in history...last year we were around +15F over average(44/65F)and this year 21/36F,about -15F below avg(highs)
to see this happen (going from the warmest to coldest the very next year)is very odd to me.
Another figure to give some perspective-we saw a handful of LOW temps of upper 50s to 60F last
March-those were the lows! We have not hit 60F once this March and there is nothing in the forecast
to make me believe we will this March.
When you just average the numbers it adds up correctly because for the 2 years you come up pretty much
dead on average-but my feeling/worry is that mother nature is trying to correct an imbalance in the proportion
of warming in the mid latitudes by dumping huge amounts of cold air down...but there is also a lot of warmth going north
they call these patterns "blocking"but they are becoming somewhat random and frequent IMO like the planet
is having to go to extremes to balance temps....so it stops the "normal"progression and opens a valve to clear the excess...
Not an alarmist here but definitely not one to bury my head in the sand....unless its warm
The one blessing in this is that we did not have an unusually warm February where everything bloomed/leafed
out and was hammered this month but this pattern does look like a shift(back to cold) from the past 2 years or so of drought and
above normal temps(here at least)-it will be interesting to see what kind of summer we have here-will it be another cool one?????

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Comments (10)

User
11 years ago
Aberrations in temperature and precipitation have become the new norm.

Around here, Spring is typically the shortest season. This year, I feel if we blink, we will miss it!
chadec
11 years ago
Spring just started so I would give it a chance. Our temps this weekend are back down to Jan. like temps. I remember 2 years ago we had snow in April. So I know that there is some kind of struggle going on between the seasons and I hope spring comes through. I have so many plants to go in the ground and hoping to plant next weekend.
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User
11 years ago
If it makes you feel better, the Nat. Weather Service is calling for warmer than normal for most of US. Still cold here but did see the daffodils blooming today--it's an optimistic start.

Here is a link that might be useful: Spring forecast
chicago_palm
11 years ago
I feel like we are seeing more extremes lately. It does also seem like the artic region is getting warmer. We have only had one day in March above 50 this year. So strange, usually have a few sixties by now and at least one 70. And last year was crazy! I do expect some cold into April as baseball season seems to always bring at least a few games with the temps in the 30s.
garyfla_gw
11 years ago
Hi
I've been amazed at this winter as the low has been 39
Which puts me in an 11 for the first time in 33 years . While 09 set records as the coldest lol Fell to a zone 8!!
Jan /Feb was above normal while all of March has been below normal . i'm always amused at the one thing it never is is "normal" lol
Predicting the weather is as futile as the stock market but not nearly as profitable?? lol gary
Kokomo-JB
11 years ago
Global warming, Natural Earth climate cycles, Polar shift, depleted zone layer, fresh water slowing down the Atlantic conveyor system, Volcanic ash...could be all, some or none. Personally, I wouldn't micro examine it year by year...I would at least do it by 1/4 or 1/2 centuries. Europe experienced a mini ice age around the 1500's.
Not that they are a definitive source but.....Wikipedia says:

The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a period of cooling that occurred after the Medieval Warm Period (Medieval Climate Optimum).[1] While it was not a true ice age, the term was introduced into the scientific literature by FranÃÂ§ois E. Matthes in 1939.[2] It has been conventionally defined as a period extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries,[3][4][5] or alternatively, from about 1350 to about 1850,[6] though climatologists and historians working with local records no longer expect to agree on either the start or end dates of this period, which varied according to local conditions. NASA defines the term as a cold period between AD 1550 and AD 1850 and notes three particularly cold intervals: one beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, each separated by intervals of slight warming.[7] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report considered the timing and areas affected by the LIA suggested largely independent regional climate changes, rather than a globally synchronous increased glaciation. At most there was modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during the period.[8]
Several causes have been proposed: cyclical lows in solar radiation, heightened volcanic activity, changes in the ocean circulation, an inherent variability in global climate, or decreases in the human population.
jimhardy
Original Author
11 years ago
Get this....

Last year we had 8 nights with LOWS warmer then our warmest high this month,we also averaged 27F warmer for highs at the airport!

Avg March high at the airport this year(so far) 37F last March was 64!

Luckily I don't live at the airport and we are averaging in the low 40s(highs) here.
chadec
11 years ago
Temps were staying low all morning, then around 10:00 am it started sleeting. That could be typical for March. But we ended up with a high of 64F at 5:00pm. To go from sleet and rain to wearing shorts out in the same dayÃÂ¿
jimhardy
Original Author
11 years ago
Finally starting to hear some talk of this pattern breaking down,
after a cold start to the week-it looks like plentiful 50s/60s coming up
and even some hints of 70F temps not to far down the road-keep
your fingers & toes crossed!
tropicalzone7
11 years ago
I see some mid 50s to start next week, but the last day in the 10 day forecast ends with upper 40s. Hopefully the weather will warm up soon, I definitely believe that I'll start seeing a few days in the 60s by early April, but I have a feeling I'll be keeping my really tropical plants inside until early May which will be the latest I've ever kept them inside if that does happen. Accuweather says that the pattern looks like it will persist for much of April and even though they definitely are far from accurate a lot of the time, I can definitely see that being a possibility.
I hope they are wrong, I want to start planting!
-Alex