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Yikes! I hope this is wrong.....

Posted by jimhardy Iowa 5b? (My Page) on
Wed, Jun 12, 13 at 7:17

After a few years of dry weather and only 2-3 storms
we are now in an active weather pattern but unfortunately this too.

NWS forecasters discussion-June 12,2013

A major severe weather outbreak is possible today in Iowa and
Illinois. At appears a widespread risk for wind and
hail is likely over all of the County Warning Area this afternoon and early this
evening...with a risk for tornadoes primarily along and north of a
line from Cedar Peoria Illinois.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 258 am CDT Wednesday Jun 12 2013

A very sobering situation is developing early this morning. A
capped high cape airmass is found from Iowa southward...a strong
short wave is dropping into the Dakotas...low pressure in south
central Nebraska is moving east along a stalled frontal boundary.
This front is found from Omaha eastward over Iowa to the quadrant northern Indiana. Mesoscale convective system activity is occurring just north of
this stalled boundary...enhancing the convergence by backing the
winds along it.

Storm Prediction Center has already outlined the threats today very well in their day 1 I strongly believe there will be several hours of
supercell thunderstorms this afternoon over the northern 1/2 of the
County Warning Area...along the stalled boundary. This places a tornado risk into the
Cedar Rapids...Dubuque...Clinton...Quad Cities...Freeport...Sterling
... Princeton metropolitan areas. As noted by Storm Prediction Center...there is a
risk for a few strong tornadoes...especially right near the boundary
where the strongest low level instability should be found...along
with backed winds...creating a more strongly curved hodograph. At
this time...this appears to be locations roughly along Interstate
80...east of Iowa City.

The cap which prevented convection yesterday is now working against
US. Thus far through 2 has prevented storms from forming in
the south half Iowa. Our savior out of this event is most certainly
getting storms to push the boundary south...but even with a large
flare up in storms in northwest Iowa...the cap is so strong that
storms may only swipe the northern 2 rows of counties. At this
point...since models are correctly showing the storms to the
northwest remaining on an east to northeast progress...I have to
believe the boundary will not drop farther south...and strong
heating/high cape will occur in the southern 1/2 of the County Warning Area setting
the stage for our potential severe event. This said...I will
continue to monitor convective trends...and hope our capping
weakens...but that seems unlikely ahead of the coming strong short
wave in the Dakota. After highs reach the upper 80s today...the
low should be poised near Des Moines...and will sweep east to the
Mississippi River by 7 PM this evening. Thus...supercells should
break out by early to middle afternoon...with a tornado risk in the
aforementioned areas...this should then congeal with storms near the
low and along the cold front in central Iowa this late afternoon.
From this point on a intense derecho should form...and sweep
eastward. Widespread wind threat is expected...with winds that
should easily reach 80 miles per hour in bowing segments. This is possible in
all areas east of I-280...but especially in the Illinois counties.
In southeast Iowa...northern Missouri...and west central is the damaging winds with the main low passage that
will be the primary threat...unless the boundary drops well south as
mentioned as a lower possibility.

Stay informed. Take warnings very seriously today. Know where you
will take shelter this afternoon if it is required. Shut your garage

Click for Fairfield, Iowa Forecast

Follow-Up Postings:

RE: Yikes! I hope this is wrong.....

they were talking about this on my weather channel. said we will be hit by the lower tail of the storm and it will bring heavy rain but up not where you are and across michigan it could get very very ugly

RE: Yikes! I hope this is wrong.....

I hope you ended up getting through the storm okay. This is definitely a big one. It's heading towards me tomorrow, but I think the severe thunderstorms will be a bit south of me. Still a chance for some strong storms, hail, winds, and especially a lot of rain. Already near 8 inches of rain for the month so another 2 or 3 in a few hours is not needed for me!
Good luck with the storm!

RE: Yikes! I hope this is wrong.....

Needed the rain not the storms,ended up with neither...not a drop.

RE: Yikes! I hope this is wrong.....

Weather has been swinging so wildly from one extreme to the other, hard to keep up. First there's the stories of Midwest drought then flooding, then record Colorado wildfires, then... Are you currently in drought, jimhardy? Here, it's been monsoonal rains for the past six weeks, pushing a June rainfall record (still mid-month), with over 15 inches of rain in six weeks. Now, I get the mood of "Rainy Night in Georgia" and "the feelin it's raining all over the world."

RE: Yikes! I hope this is wrong.....

That amount of rain puts our seemly wet weather in perspective and
yet,because of 2 years of drought it seems really rainy here if only in
contrast...but in weather we have numbers and they don't lie when it
comes to rain totals.
I think our drought is over,after 2 years of digging in chalk to plant (and
watching the water disappear when ever you watered) -we are soggy.
I pulled a big(dry)Y.Aloifolia trunk out of the ground yesterday and it was
almost as wet as when Gale pulled Evelle out of the ground while they were escaping from prison in the movie Raising Arizona!
May was double our avg and June has been drier but flash flooding is forecast this weekend so that should change.

Just looked-
We are around 11.20" here for the last 6 weeks

Click for Fairfield, Iowa Forecast

RE: Yikes! I hope this is wrong.....

After months (a few years now actually), of extreme weather events, the next week of weather looks to be 'normal'. Now, I have no excuse for putting off all those outdoor chores! What to do, what to do.

RE: Yikes! I hope this is wrong.....

We're at 9 inches of rain for the month so far. I definitely wouldn't mind seeing sunny days for the rest of the month. As much as I didn't mind not having to water my plants at all for the past 3 weeks or so, they definitely need a week or so of sunny warm weather for the tropicals to even start to think about filling out for the season. Nice and sunny weather ahead, temperatures will be pretty near to average.

Sorry to hear you missed out on the rain, I guess it's better than getting caught in those storms though! We got around 2 inches of rain with that event and pretty chilly weather. It was like a noreaster here.

RE: Yikes! I hope this is wrong.....

same as you here Jim a bit of wind and nothing else. I would have liked a bit of rain. I think some is on the way the start of next week

RE: Yikes! I hope this is wrong.....

Monsonal rains continue for Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Soon to be the wettest June...EVER in NJ/ NYC Metro. Thought it was supposed to be a 'normal' week. Beginning to look like a real jungle in he back, with or without the palms!

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