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jimhardy_gw

Anybody following this???? Looks like it could be a monster!

jimhardy
11 years ago

This mornings forecaster discussion.
Short term...
today and tonight...
will need to keep this short due to the complicated nature of this
forecast cycle. All models continue to indicate a near bomb low
pressure coming through Missouri to reach Chicago by late Thursday
afternoon. Today is benign...with clouds and seasonal temperatures
for the most part...though a few degrees above normal. Highs in the
middle 30s north to lower 40s south with strengthening east winds to 15
miles per hour during the day.

Tonight...there is still much disagreement on low level thermal
parameters...with two model clusters on 850/925mb temperatures. The
NAM/high res nmm/high res arw/European model (ecmwf) all show the rain to snow line /
0c or slightly colder at said levels...to be from Fairfield to
Moline...to Sterling Illinois. The GFS and UKMET are warmer...with this
line up to Iowa City to Stockton Illinois...from 06z all the way to 12z
before crashing southeast. Thus...there is still uncertainty on
ptype overnight. The milder GFS/UKMET will hammer the northwest 1/3
of the County Warning Area with heavy snow...as does all other model guidance.
Liquid quantitative precipitation forecast of 0.5 to 0.7 is likely tonight in most locations...and
northwest of a Ottumwa to Iowa City to Galena line...this should
fall has heavy snow. Winds...especially after 06z will become very
strong from the north/northeast over the heavy snow areas...and
blizzard conditions will develop. A Blizzard Warning will be issued
for much of east central Iowa and northeast Iowa...as well as Jo
Daviess County...though mainly for the impacts in northwest sections
of that County. Overnight snow totals of 5 to 9 inches appear
likely northwest of that line...with the event peaking after 12z
Thursday. For locations just southeast of this line...including
Mount Pleasant through the quadrant cities...to Freeport...a challenging
mix of rain/rain and snow mix/possible sleet and thunderstorms are
possible. And if the first model cluster of lower level thermal
parameters are correct...this axis could see significant snow
overnight as well. For now...will be conservative and hold off on
any overnight headline and have a sharp cut off on snow
accumulations to zero southeast of Burlington to Moline...to
Sterling. Rainfall may cut off for a while after 06z Thursday in the
southeast as a dry slot begins to move up into Illinois.

After 00z...the combination of heavy snow and increasing blowing
snow...will cause major travel hazards in east central Iowa as we
approach 06z. After 06z...strong winds...heavy snow...Gravity
waves and thundersnow are possible. All of these features lead US
to start and end the event with one Blizzard Warning in those
locations...while others seeing the event mainly during the day
Thursday remain free of overnight headlines. Ervin

Long term...
Thursday through Tuesday...
forecast focus on major winter storm on Thursday then dry but cold
through the weekend. Low confidence on next week's storm system.

Thursday and Thursday night...major winter storm centered near
Quincy at 6 am Thursday will be tracking to SW lower Michigan by evening.
As the cyclone moves east the rain/snow mix roughly near and east of
the MS river early in the morning will be changing over to heavy
snow at most locations later in the morning...continuing into the
afternoon. West of the MS river heavy snow will be ongoing in the
morning then gradually diminishing in the afternoon. Combine that
with 50-55+ miles per hour wind gusts and life threatening blizzard conditions
will be occurring most areas on Thursday. With these intense
cyclones there could also be Gravity waves that develop for brief
periods and cause 60+ miles per hour wind gusts.

Snow totals from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening will
range from 12 to 16 inches across portions of northeast Iowa and far
northwest Illinois to 2 to 4 inches in our far southeast County Warning Area. Will linger a chance of
light snow in our far eastern counties Thursday evening but areas of
blowing snow will continue cwa-wide. Later Thursday night the
winds/blowing snow will be diminishing. Temperatures will be likely
falling from early morning highs on Thursday. Lows Thursday night will
plummet into the single digits especially where the deepest snow
cover will be.

Friday through Sunday...after the passage of the major storm system
operational models quickly return a zonal flow to the Midwest.
Typically this would bring milder air but with deep snow cover in
place temperatures will be cold. Will forecast maximum temperatures only in the
20s where the deepest snow will be to the lower to middle 30s far
south. Lows will be in the single digits north to teens south.

Early next week...low confidence in the handling of potentially
another winter storm around Christmas. While earlier model runs were
indicating a snow storm in the Midwest the European model (ecmwf)/GFS 00z run has
greatly diminished this threat...taking the storm south and east of
the dvn County Warning Area. However...we have seen this picture before and later
model runs may return the snow storm to the Midwest after all. For
now will continue with chance probability of precipitation. Stay tuned.


Comments (15)

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Yes,it is the one they call Draco-it is forecast to bomb out as it makes it's turn to the north and east.

    Last time we had a storm like this it collapsed my cactus shelter!

    Frozen window

  • islandbreeze
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Yeah I'm keeping my eye on it because I still have palms that aren't protected yet due to the above average temps we've been having. We've been mid 40s for highs daily, but temps are supposed to drop into 20s for lows and 30s for highs starting friday. I have a windmill and 4 sabal minors I'll cover tomorrow.

    We're only supposed to get a dusting out of the system along with colder temps, as most of it will start off as a lot of rain. The upper half of the lower peninsula is going to get the most snow, and counties north of here could get 2 inches. I have to be honest, I wouldn't mind one decent snow storm as long as it melts pretty quickly. I kind of miss the snow. We didn't really get any last winter. Our lowest temp we've seen this year so far is 23.

  • wetsuiter
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Good luck with this one guys!

  • miketropic
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    ok first of all I just want to say..I never knew thundersnow was a word or an occurance and now I want some LOL. We only have a slight chance of snow I guess since Im a bit south of you guys but they are saying more rain..yay just what I need after 2 solid weeks of it. forget winter we now have an official monsoon season in the US

  • wetsuiter
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    I happens occasionally when we get strong Nor'easters moving up the coast with strong Gulf energy colliding with cold Canadian air. 2010 Nor'easter produced a lot of thunder snow.

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Synopsis...
    as of 3 am...a 991mb surface low is located just west of Jefferson
    City MO...with rapid pressure falls to the east and northeast of
    this low. The rain snow line is approximately from Stockton
    Illinois...to Iowa City...to near Ottumwa...with convection along and
    south of that axis continuing to produce occasional burst of heavy
    wet snow...while a more steady snow continues to the north.
    Farther south...upright thunderstorms continue to fire from near
    kirks ville through the quadrant cities...this convection earlier
    brought thundersnow...but is now a mix by latest reports or just
    rain. Heavy snow and blowing snow is found from central Iowa
    through eastern Kansas. An incredible evolution of dynamics is set
    to take place today as a new deformation zone is forecast to
    develop over the County Warning Area as temperatures aloft become cold enough for
    all snow. During this time...a massive pressure drop is forecast
    creating favorable conditions wind gusts up to 60 miles per hour through
    this evening.

    Short term...
    today will be tremendously changeable day...as the central areas
    begin with moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms...then rapidly
    change over to heavy wet snow and high winds...blizzard
    conditions. Our west should see high winds develop around 5 to 7
    am...and a Blizzard Warning continues...now until midnight. Have upgraded
    the central counties to Blizzard Warning through midnight as
    secondary deformation zone is forecast by all models...and is now
    forming in eastern Kansas as shown on satellite and radar. This new
    def zone should be very intense...and compared to the current one
    over Iowa and Nebraska...it should be smaller in size. This
    tightening is common with very intense cyclones...and should not
    be viewed as a diminishing feature. The gradient of around 30 mb
    over Iowa today should be more than enough for very high winds
    sustained around 40 miles per hour...gusting to 50 - 60 miles per hour through this
    evening. Tree damage and power-line damage certainly appears likely
    due to wet snow accumulation on them stressed farther by high
    winds. Visibilities should be sub 1/4 in open areas over most the
    County Warning Area in heavy snow today. ... it begins... it appears the
    Burlington through quadrant cities to Freeport counties will not
    change until 9 am to 11 am...but once it does... a high impact event
    will unfold. Rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour should allow for a
    quick 4 to 8 inches of snow along the Mississippi River in
    southeast Iowa northeast to around Freeport. Heavy quantitative precipitation forecast in models
    is concerning for more snow...and will be watched closely as
    things evolve...though the wind is as much as a threat as any with
    this event.


  • subtropix
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    On the warmer/wet side for this one. No walk in the park though with forecast of very heavy rain, thunder, and winds up to 60mph during AM rush and gridlock alert day for holiday traffic--that and the end of the world should make tomorrow interesting.

    Thundersnow is relatively rare but have heard it during intense East coast snow storms--seems particularly true of those that have a boost from subtropical, Gulf influence. Ironic that the most intense winter storms have a deep tropical connection.

  • chadec
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    We are scheduled for some rain today as well. I think with the lows being below freezing I might have to cover my cacti and agaves to keep em safe. Nothing in the forecast that makes me think my palms are in danger though.

    Jim you got a mess on your hands! Bet you can't wait for spring.

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Spring would be nice but the green grass under the snow just goes to show.....it hasn't been to tough!

  • miketropic
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    the winds are around 30 mph gusts and its been raining since I came home from work this morning. Im not so worried about snow more of a flood at this point. this si going into week 3 with only 2 days of no rain. monsoon season in KY

  • subtropix
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    NYC Metro will be suffering more blackouts. At ths rate, becoming more economical to put the lines underground already! Late December and second time in a week with thunderstorms or hail, and maybe tornado risk.

  • miketropic
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    well I was letting the car warm up before work and it has officially started to snow :(

  • miketropic
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    we ended up with 45 MPH winds and about a half inch of snow not to bad for a "blizzard"

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    We got a lot of snow but the ground was so "warm" that it was turning
    to ice underneath-I think we ended up with 4-5" total once it settled.

    What was amazing was the night before,constant lightning and thunder
    all night with 1.28" of rain rivaling the best thunderstorms of summer this past year.

    Yesterday the winds were sustained at 40 and gusted to 54mph.

    The first night I dreamed my Nainital was destroyed... I did get
    it braced just before it took off-last night I dreamed my Washy cover blew away and I couldn't find it-all is o.k.
    though....coldest morning so far though and not warming anytime soon with all the snow cover but it is sunny.

  • miketropic
    11 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    it did blow the cover off my needle palm but it took it with out a problem I was impressed. most of the snow has melted already and warmer temps are in the forcast.

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