Anything you get in trade that wasn't isolated,before OR after your seeds were harvested is probably unstable.
No matter what it is.
Especially with whatever is popular like supers these days.

These days people don't hesitate to rename anything as being a new strain if it seems to look ok after only a couple grow outs.

I had a 7 pot sr years ago that I grew several generations of plants from isolated seeds to have it 1 year grow a plant totally different than the precious generations.
Whatever genes in that first plant took several generations to show themselves.
A lot of vendors say 4 generations are enough to show stability.
I don't agree,8 generations is what is probably needed,possibly more.
Also,just because you isolate your plant doesn't mean 100% that the seeds will grow true.
Your original seeds might be from a plant that wasn't in isolation and the red headed step child might just have not popped up yet.

It boils down to your seed source.
More so than any specific variety.
From what I've read,if you purchased E Bay seeds,you have a likely chance of not getting what you paid for...
How reliable is it etc.
I avoid seeds from any of the latest and greatest type varieties or so called strains.

Anything you get in trade that wasn't isolated,before OR after your seeds were harvested is probably unstable.
No matter what it is.
Especially with whatever is popular like supers these days.

I wanted to post that earlier this morning Smoke but didn't... Glad too as you worded it better (Read nicer!) than I would have.

Correct, However, that doesn't mean a grower should shy away from unisolated seed. I have never had a cross show after using seed that I grew unisolated. I suspect the chances of a cross are less than 10% as pepper plants can and predominantly self pollinate. If you are dead set on growing a particular plant, then it is maybe better to go with isolated seed from a trusted source but for the average grower who won't feel their season is a bust if a plant or two doesn't grow true, non-isolated seed is just fine. In fact, a surprise or two hear and there can be a welcome occurrence. The only plants that I have grown that didn't grow true were from other seed sources, both retail and trades. I suspect most of those were more a symptom of mis-labeling than a true cross. I suspect the majority of growers on this site are using seed they either grew or received from others that was not truly isolated.
Bruce

This post was edited by esox07 on Sat, Jan 17, 15 at 13:23

I would question whether Bubblegum could be stable already, but the other guys here would be a better source on that, than me.

Agree with Bruce. Haven't had a cross happen in my garden for 4 years now, and I don't isolate.

This post was edited by Djole on Sat, Jan 17, 15 at 14:42

I get that isolation is the best way to maintain stability of a strain moving forward. I plan on isolating all pods that I save seeds from as a best practice.

My question is more in reference to breeds that are not breed out to F8. From what I've been able to find it appears that neither the Carolina Reaper or 7 Pot Bubblegum are F8. The Reaper appears to be a hot button issue because of it. My curiosity is more in line with minimizing the possibility of getting an unstable plant by planting more of the unstable breed. 2 out of 4 unstable plants is more devastating than 2 out of 10 plants. Basically a strength in numbers approach.

I suspect the chances of a cross are less than 10% as pepper plants can and predominantly self pollinate.That is, of course, speculation. As is the notion of the "magic 8" number of generations of a hybrid grow-out to produce a mostly homozygous plant. I SUSPECT that the Magic Eight was largely accepted by some because of the following value: 1-(.05^8) which resolves to 0.996. This value is the probability that ALL of the SELECTED generational grown-outs demonstrating the same expression of that single trait will be true to type for THAT single trait. This notion is probably overly simplistic. And with other expressed traits of interest (and unexpressed, but influencing genetic info) , the Magic 8 notion is further weakened.

Correction on above: Assumption there should have been NO selection. That is, growing a representative sample of all plants at any Fx. The number (0.996) represents the probability that no hybrid for single target trait exists at F9, not F8. Further assumption here is that the F1 is itself a result of a hybridization of a single homozygous trait present in both parents.

This post was edited by reginald_25 on Sun, Jan 18, 15 at 12:56

@ dustonj.. If you look up the history of the Carolina Reaper its appearance in the news as HP22B was 2011,> Man On A Mission: Grow The World's Hottest Chili Pepper and the description HP22B is spelled out here> PepperSeed Update with a full search producing this.> PepperSeed Search for HP22B

The GardenWeb guyz & galz discussed it here.> Hot Pepper Forum. As far as it being "stable" there are claims here & there it was released as F8 but let your research be your guide as this thread in 2013 was reporting a lot of variations!

About probability of x-ing, I am on the same boat with Bruce. A 10% probability is pretty much commonly agreed upon both in tomato and peppers word, if you have a low bees activities and/or breeze, it can be even lower. The male pollen in a pepper flower has the highest and the first chance at it to do their work, before the bees wake up and get there. And bees do not seem to be too crazy about peppers and tomatoes, to my observation.

Final note: A 10% probability is a REAL probability. And should not be taken as non existing.

Seysonn

But it is easy any simple to isolate fed buds before flowering and then tagging .

WOW!! I am now dumber for thinking about what time bees wake up..LOL

As Mike said, it all comes down to the source.. I would trust the OP seed of a few people over some vendors

I've found as my garden got bigger my seeds got less pure without isolation.

I think the larger the garden,the more bees,more chance of crosses.
I'm not sure but I think I've read peppers produce like dogs make puppies.
Several dogs can mate with a female and she gets several crosses of pups.
Eggs are ripe at different times.
I've saved seeds from single pods (larger pods or a pepper that makes a lot of seeds).
I've gotten mostly what I think was pure seeds from most I sprouted but had a percentage of crosses too.
Also if a bee goes from a pollen filled bud to one whose pollen isn't ripe yet it could pollenate a bud that the female parts were ripe and waiting for pollen.

Probability of getting pure seeds I think depends on your specific garden.
When I grew a few plants way back when,I never got a cross that I know about.
Once I grew more than a few plants I started getting a lot of crosses.
Especially if I had a plant Like a Tepin or Pequin (tons of buds at a time) and a less budding plant like a Chinense in the area.
I think the massive budding on the Pequins and Tepins attracted the bees.
Since there was a massive increase of bee activity,some bees went from the tepins to the chinense.
I see bees loaded up with pollen going to 1 last bud before they head home.
Sometimes they hit up another plant en route to top off the tank.

At one time I'd agree that since peppers are bi sexual so it's probable that you don't get many crosses.
I've learned different when you grow more plants closer together.
I do consider the plants I grow indoors for seed are 99% or more pure seeds.
No wind,bees or whatever.
Gravity causes pollination I think.
I do see a stray fly going to a bud or 2 to check it out at times.
That might not matter but all it takes is that it sat on 2 buds from different plants and a speck of pollen might have been brought to another bud.
Not likely,but possible.
All seeds might not be pure,99 out of 100 or more.
Never know until you grow it out.
I used to ask everyone if they got a cross from my seeds.
Hardly anyone said a thing.
After I saw a post that the fish pepper seeds I sent a guy weren't growing true,a lot of people wrote theirs didn't either (from that specific years crop I grew and took seeds from).
I'd have never sent other people seeds if I knew they were crosses.
Coincedentally,the crosses came from the year I tripled my gardens size.
That was several years ago.
Now I trade Isolated seeds for isolated IF I have them,I generally tell people if they aren't isolated seeds or if my seeds are from non isolated seeds IF I know.
Most times these days people are afraid I won't trade if there seeds aren't isolated so they won't tell me about it or just don't know.
I only want to know in case I'm trying to decide what to grow.I'll grow isolated seeds first over non isolated.
But I want any seeds from stuff I don't have.Non isolated means I just have to sprout more of that variety in hopes I get a plant I want.
Has nothing to do with cancelling the trade as far as I'm concerned.
Just some info about the seeds I'm getting.
Heck it might grow the next gazillion schoville pepper and make me rich. :)

Also, you need to know which Thai Dragon you have. I discovered that there are 2. One is heirloom and has small fruit that I think is pretty nasty, thick skinned and seedy. The other is a hybrid that is really hard to find, it's big and very flavorful. If you have the first you are safe, if you have the second and did not buy it from a reputable company that states F1 on it, you might not get what you want.
Pam

Which is probably as big or bigger problem with seeds not growing out as expected. I think more often, the result of a non true growing pepper seed is that it is mis-labeled rather than a cross. Sometimes it is a pure mistake where seeds get mixed during sorting and packing, some times it intentional by unscrupulous vendors, some times it is simply one person calling a variety something that it is not. If you spend much time on this forum, you will see people post pictures of a pepper plant and calling it something that it clearly is not. This is likely because they bought seed labeled XXXXXXX or traded for seed labeled XXXXXXX and it grew true but was mis-labeled when they got it. But they don't realize it until someone points it out.
I remember my first try at growing Ghost Peppers and my first real season, I grew out 4 or 5 plants of Ghost Peppers from seed from a well known vendor. The plants grew great and produced tons of what I thought were Ghost Peppers. Until I posted a few photos and a couple people chimed in that they didn't quite look right, I was fully convinced that I had Ghost Peppers and had even harvested and passed on a couple packs of seeds to others which I labeled Ghost Peppers and for that I apologized and had notified them after the fact. They turned out to be some type of Naga strain. But that is one instance where seeds don't grow out as expected by mislabeling.
Bruce

Funny you mention that Bruce,

I had a few reaper plants last year that produced what look like some type of Naga, hotter that hell, but difinitely not a true reaper. I did save some of those seeds for myself to see what happens the next go around. Beautiful looking pods that I would have believed were some type of Naga but not the case.