Lots of questions need to be answered before one can address the issue of gross sales:

* Have you any experience in running a retail nursery or managing/buying for or even working in one?
* Are you going to be growing or just selling finished containers, B&B, etc?
* Do you have a source for vendors/suppliers or does the current owner have a good relationship with existing suppliers and will they be willing to extend you payment terms?
* What are you going to sell? Will it be a full service nursery or a specialty nursery focusing on some niche?
* How many months of the year will you be open?
* Can you afford to advertise?
* How much of the 4 acres is selling floor?
* Will you be able to hire sufficient staff to help you based on those projections? Running a 4 acre nursery is not a one man/woman job :-)

Once you have those issues clarified, it will be easier to comment on whether your sales projections are realistic. Regardless, if the place has been poorly run, it is going to take time to build up the sales volume you hope for and you will need to have enough financial wherewithall to carry you until that does happen.

This is probably not going to be a very relevant comparison because of locale, but a full service retail nursery of similar size close to an urban center or on a high traffic route here - and if properly managed - will bring in annual gross sales far in excess of the figure you are shooting for. But we are able to operate and plant all 12 months of the year.

Here's my answers to those questions.

* Do I have experience at a retail nursery - very limited, I currently am starting a small wholesale nursery at home.
* Are you going to be growing or just selling finished containers, B&B, etc - the first year, I'll be selling finished containers, the following year, finishing at least some of my own.
* Do you have a source for vendors/suppliers or does the current owner have a good relationship with existing suppliers and will they be willing to extend you payment terms - I wasn't planning on using credit for my vendors. I have some good sources and the previous owners were willing to share their sources as well.
* What are you going to sell? Will it be a full service nursery or a specialty nursery focusing on some niche? - I was planning on being a fairly full service nursery. I want to be the nursery where people can find a large variety of things with a much better selection than HD, Lowes, and Walmart.
* How many months of the year will you be open - about 10. There is a winter there, but I plan on doing christmas trees, etc.
* Can you afford to advertise - yes/
* How much of the 4 acres is selling floor. Not all of it is currently used as selling floor, almost of it could be. There is an existing building on site that could also be used as a gift shop.
* Will you be able to hire sufficient staff to help you based on those projections? Running a 4 acre nursery is not a one man/woman job. DH & I would be the ones there starting. There is sufficient population in the area that hiring additional help shouldn't be a problem.

I'm really trying to figure out if this place will be able to make the motgage which I figure to be about $3000/month.

Ellen

Does your purchase price include existing inventory? My somewhat larger full service and granted, well-established nursery carries a current inventory (fluffed for the start of the season, which is early here) of the better part of $1MM at cost. It is virtually impossible, unless you are insanely wealthy or incredibly successful immediately, to carry that kind of an inventory without utilizing payment terms.

We also have a full time year round staff of about 20, swelling to about 50 during the peak season - meeting biweekly payroll is a hefty chunk of change. Two people to start and run operations for a full service, 4 acre retail nursery is an extremely optimistic expectation.

Do you have a well or are you on a county/municipal water line? Water costs for a 4 acre nursery in summer can be astronomical unless you have a reliable and inexpensive source.

I don't want to discourage you from this if this is your dream, but if you have never done this before and need to revamp a poorly performing garden center, be prepared to have some very deep pockets for the first few years. You are not going to turn a profit for a while and the deficit could be significant.

Pam, this thread caught my eye -- not because I am even remotely interested in starting a nursery, but just out of curiousity. I just have to say how impressed I am with the honest, straightforward tone of your two replies to Ellen. It's refreshing to read your posts, here and in the other forums you visit. What great, realistic -- and yet, kind -- advice here!

Maureen

Ellen, does the extreme drop in sales in the past 4 years coincide with the opening of HD,Lowes,Walmart? I suspect it may. You say there is no competition other than the box stores. Well, that can be a big hurdle. There's been many GW discussions in the past of box stores vs. garden centers and *we* know why garden centers are better, but how will you compete. The masses don't often get it.

Not to say I don't stop in at HD from time to time for good deals on annuals or fresh shipments of shrubs and such. But I also contribute huge chunks of the paycheck to garden centers too. However, being recently diagnosed with CHAD (Compulsive Horticultural Acquisition Disease), I don't represent typical consumer. :-)

Did you see those new HD ads with the "certified Horticultural experts"? ya right...

I suspect the competition from the box store was a big factor. Some ramblings from a consumer-

What is the average income level in the surrounding counties? Is there an active horticultural club/society? Native Plant society? Active garden clubs? If so, where do those people buy their plants, and are there enough of them to support you.

What is the level of sophistication of the residential landscapes in the area? Are there many professional landscapes?

Where do the installers get their plants, and can you afford to cut them a wholesale price- that requires maintaining a relatively stable core plant material line with volume.

Is there a pond supply store within 50-100 miles? Could you offer something like that- a niche market, maybe not a 'be-all-end-all' pond store, but a good general supply of equipment and plants. Maybe focus on daylillies or hostas, shade- some hook to get them in the door. Get a big compost tea set-up and sell it Sat. mornings- fresh brewed tea!

Just a few thoughts- at least there are a lot of growers in NC, so trucking expenses won't be but so bad.

Not sure what area of NC you are talking about but here in the Triangle (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) there is an abundance of nurseries. And some of the big box retailers do a fine job of bringing in the newest and unusual varieties (locally produced). Now the staf doesn't have a clue but if you get there on delivery day you can find some real prizes amoungst the standards. I shop at some of the local garden centers but I worry that they don't have good management or vision. They appear to only make money four months out of the year.

I know a garden center in NJ that is having difficulty making ends meet and it's gross sales are $600,000 - on a property 1/4 the size of the one you are looking at Ellen. They find that Christmas sales do not make any money and just "do" Christmas as a service to their customers. Almost the same can be said of Easter sales.

Their money is made between mid-April and the end of June, if it doesn't get too hot by then, the rest of the year is just pure service to customers.

It's a really rough business.

Another angle you might consider is having your own landscaping crew. Anything they plant is sold at retail prices plus they get paid for labor. This would add another layer of complexity to starting a new business and I wouldn't expect you could focus on this as well, but if you could hire a crew forman with enough experience to bid jobs properly and who could operate with minimal supervision, it might be possible.

I am not a nursery owner, but I have a limited, informal partnership with one.

Her profit margin is low so maintaining stock is a constant balancing act.

I grow forsythia, hydrangeas, bramblefruit,and a few other things. Because I'm just down the road, she knows the status of my plants and she can schedule her spring opening and sales accordingly. She doesn't have to compete with other sales outlets for stock and she doesn't have to pay me upfront. She doesn't have to have storage space, she doesn't have to maintain them.

She can free up her space and time to grow more annuals, etc. She does the advertising, provides sales personnel, the site, parking, etc., for her business so I don't have that expense. My stock added to hers makes for an expansive display, which gets more customers in and gets them buying supplies, etc. At the end, she takes a commission only what's sold and I take everything else back.

She's not out any money; the combined products give the impression of a larger business; she's providing acclimated plants, some heirloom, and all good quality; she gets all the manure she wants from the family network, and most of all, she's avoided competition.

She works her butt off; during the off-months, she has a second job; she has a really hard time getting and affording good help; she has very little financial security and no retirement prospects, and when she was getting started, she spent six months sleeping on the floor of my apartment because she couldn't afford the rent on an apartment of her own.

Ray

Responding to a 5 year old thread...

Of the top of my head: You don't know enough to have a chance. You need to work in a nursery like this at least at the level of shift manager to understand the work.

In general: A boss needs to know how to do the jobs of the people who report to him as well as they do. He needs to know the 2nd tier people's jobs well enough to do most of them himself, even if not as well or as fast. He needs to know the 3rd enough to recognize competence, and understand when they ask for material, tools, advice...

I'm learning how to be a boss. For the first 6 years my nursery was a 1 person operation. This year I've hired a raft of the local high school kids to work part time. It's an eye opener. I often find that I spend 4 hours in the afternoon getting things ready for 4 kids to work the next morning. Things like having the cuttings ready to pot, the tractor with the trailer on it, a container of fertilizer concentrate at hand, the soil freshly rototilled. Every time I miss a detail, it costs me 40 bucks an hour to have kids stand around while I fix it.

In the long run, these are also jobs to teach people. But until you can hire full time people, you take pot luck with who shows up when you hire.