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gardeninggrrl

Anyone willing to share thoughts about trends in the industry?

gardeninggrrl
18 years ago

Hi all -

I'm a freelance writer who does market research reports on various topics for a company called Mintel. These topics in the past have ranged from soup to red meat to dental accessories (ugh! that one was deadly!), and now I'm happily working on gardening. Basically, these reports are a comprehensive market report, a state of the industry so to speak. They have sales data, consumer research, competitive analysis, market drivers, trends, supplier overview, etc.

I'd love to get the perspective of any of you who wouldn't mind sharing your thoughts, as industry experts. Any info is welcome, but I'd be particularly interested in hearing about how sales have been this year relative to previous years, and if there's an emerging trend there; if your customer base is changing; what you see as the trends in the industry, etc. I'm trying to get perspectives from across the country, not just here in the Midwest.

I'm an avid gardener myself, so I feel like I have a decent grasp of what's going on and what affects the market, but of course that could just be colored by my own personal preferences. For example, I grow hundreds of tomato plants from seed each year, and it seems to me that heirloom fruits/vegetables have been getting a lot of press lately. But, I wonder if this is really such a big phenomenon, or if it's just one of those things that's trendy to talk about, but not that big in terms of numbers, both with people buying heirloom varieties from nurseries and retailers and with more people growing them.

Feel free to respond here or to email me directly if you would like to share your thoughts. If this post is out of line here for some reason, I apologize in advance - I usually hang out in the Tomato Forum, so I'm not entirely sure of the protocol here.

Thanks all, and happy selling! I buy all my annuals/perennials from small/local nurseries, and I'm constantly amazed at how hard all of you work. Seriously. I've also grown flowers from seed, or have attempted to....let's just say I'm in awe of anyone who does this for a living.

Tasha

Comments (40)

  • bruceNH
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    well.....I think mich is onto something. Pink Flamingo's and croquet are hip.

    Every garden needs these two accessories!

  • laag
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    I have noticed much more mechanization, more spraying, and a lower percentage of skilled and knowledgable people in the maintenance end of the business. It is often echoed by clients of mine.

    If you read landscape messageboards, you will see posts from young 'scapers asking others such things as renting dingos with augers to install 20 2-gallon plants or how long will it be before the lawn that they killed with roundup disintegrates enough to make a bed without removing anything. Hand work seems out of the question. If it can not be done with something having a cord or exhaust pipe, it is not going to get done.

  • Cady
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Yes, "mow, blow and go" and schmoes with no horticultural training starting "landscape" business are trends, but unpleasant ones. I'm not sure that's what GardeningGrrl is looking for.

    I've been working both for a retail-rewholesale garden and landscape supply center, and as an estate gardener for a garden maintenance service. In my work, I've noticed what seem to be a couple of growing trends:

    1. Landscape architects are increasingly looking to partner with garden maintenance "freelancers" or services to help preserve their installations. Subsequently, they are also increasingly trying to educate their clients in the importance in properly caring for a landscape installation to keep it looking its best for years and years. I predict this trend will spawn a new league of entrepreneurial horticulturists/gardeners who will serve the design and architecture industry, supplying educated hands-on gardeners on an "outsource" basis (as opposed to the olden days when wealthy people employed their own private gardener).

    2. Water-wise plants. With drought, water restrictions and "I want no-maintenance gardens" clients, there is increasing demand by landscapers for plants that adapt to dry environs or can tolerate stretches of hot, dry weather but provide loads of color and interest. We had a run on daylilies this year. Landscaper/customers told me that they needed plants that supply color for a long period, and can take weeks of no special extra watering. The long bloomers and repeat bloomers such as Stella d'Oro and Happy Returns were by far the biggest sellers because they bloom all summer and are low-care.

  • inkognito
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    There was a time when the choice of vegetable you threw at a stage performer signified just how much you enjoyed the act and a rotten tomato said it all. Of course we all know that hand clapping put an end to this practice but perhaps this question preempts a new trend or a return to an old practice. Patronising remarks like " I'm constantly amazed at how hard all of you work" has my tomato chucking arm twitching.
    Tomatoes. Ready. Fire!

  • creatrix
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    It didn't read as patronising to me, but maybe I was out in the sun doing garden maintenance too long today.

    Yes, following behind the growing business of landscape design/install, there is a market for knowledgeable maintenance gardeners.

  • gardeninggrrl
    Original Author
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    LOL bruce, at the pink flamingo concept - do the couple of skillet birds I have in my backyard count?

    And to get this point out of the way, if anyone thought I was patronizing, that couldn't be further from the truth. I didn't mean that comment in the sense of "gosh, you little people sure do slave away in such a quaint little profession, with all those purdy flowers!" More like, I myself grow hundreds of seedlings, tomatoes/peppers/eggplant and assorted flowers. It is incredibly labor intensive, to my mind, in so many ways. At all stages. I spend much of my time in the garden, trying to get things to grow. Growing and selling plants of any sort is a tough profession, wherever you are on the professional spectrum. So many things can go wrong, the different plants all have different growing methods, and then when you've nurtured them into nice plants....bam, some kid comes along and snips the tops off a whole row of seedlings. (Yes, I read the thread about kids running amok, ouch! The parents should be shot. And it reminded me of last year, when I was making progress on my quest to grow the Himalayan Blue Poppy, had nurtured exactly one seedling, had it hardening off outside......and then my 100-pound Doberman saw a moth or something and stepped over my little garden fence and stomped right on it. Sigh. Back to the drawing board.)

    Point being, I'm not amazed that you work hard - more that, knowing how tough the actual growing is, not to mention the business side (even if many people here don't grow their own stuff, the selling side also seems incredibly difficult and up to the vagaries and whims of fate in many respects as well as a difficult clientele), I am impressed. That's all. Besides, I'm pretty much a peasant at heart, so it kind of saddens me that people think that I would patronize anyone here. But hey, if you want to throw the proverbial tomato, go ahead. Good for sauce. ;-)

    And to others, thank you for your input! I wonder if the chop-shop guys are now in such abundance because there are more people out there who don't care if they do a crappy job, or don't know any better, and just want to "keep up with the Jones's" so to speak - so the cheaper the better. This also fits in with the points about freelance gardeners and low-maintenance plants; people want nice yards, but don't want to do the work. (Obviously not all people, but it does seem like this subset is growing, with the backyard becoming the new "showpiece.") Thanks for the input and observations - I truly appreciate it!

    GG

  • viola8
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Each year it seems I have more customers wanting larger size pots of annuals. There is always such a space crunch in spring, I don't have room for gallon annuals till July some time. Good thing the growers must have quite the space crunch also, because I don't see much available till July.

    As for heirloom veggies--I get quite a few requests each year for items I have never seen available. Quite a few customers who aren't willing to find the seed and start them themselves. I give them seed sources, but they want to keep it real easy. Lots of veggie gardeners like that. Over the last 7 to 8 years I've worked in the business, I've seen a big increase in customer's selections with vegetables in general. They're getting more knowledgeable, asking more questions, trying new things.

    Because of our land use laws, agricultural land is protected, and new housing goes onto mostly small lots. Big, 2 story houses. Really small lots. Thus, many requests for very narrow and/or shade tolerant screening materials, trees, etc. There is sometimes a few feet between houses, or no side yards at all. Talk about a landscaping challenge!

  • ilima
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Tile, Tile, Tile! Every non-organic outdoor surface needs to be covered in tile. Walkways, entries, decks, patio's, pool decks, even the pool itself. My favorite is the application of a thin tile that comes in grouped sheets to the driveway. Plain concrete shows a lack of class and money and must be covered. Even wood decks and stairs are being tiled.

    I sometimes feel I am watching the installation of what archeologists will be unearthing some day. This however is not mosaic tile for art, it is all natural stone or stone appearing tile, more the Bedrock Flinstones version.

    ilima

  • superphosphate
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Branding of plants, with the tags nearly as wide as the plant itself, affixed to little plastic flagpoles, heralding some specially selected group of plants. Like with 'Endless Summer' Hydrangea, a new patented plant.
    'Endless Summer' has superceded 'Nikko Blue', such that 'Nikko Blue' is now common in Home Depots.

  • calliope
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Instant satisfaction as in preplanted containers. Convenience in store locations. Generic one size fits all labels. Maitenance gardeners. The disappearance of material in small cheap cell packs by the flat and introduction of plantsin 4" pots. (Go try to plant a vegetable garden plant-by-plant and see how cost effective that one is) LOL. The trend for growers buying in finished and pre-finished material instead of self propagation.

  • Cady
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Calliope,
    You nailed that trend. Today I was buying plants for a client, and saw rows and rows of pre-planted container gardens (at hefty prices), and even single plants such as Festuca glauca "Elijah Blue" plopped into ceramic and terracotta pots and lined up in neat rows for customers to buy.

  • creatrix
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    I am also disapointed by the disappearance of the cell packs. I like a lot of pansies, and I can't afford 4-6" pots. My clients,of course, all get 6" pots of annuals.

  • laag
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Cady,

    Your #1 is a result of cause and effect, is it not? I nailed the cause, you nailed the effect.

  • redlove123
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    I have been with 2 companys in Kansas City that do Interior/Extior plants. People are starting to finaly care about the looks of there facilites. Bigger and better is what I hear all the time, Instant beauty! But they dont come like that and if they do they are pricey! I think that we are all doing what we can with what we are dealt. No rain for weeks and then a flash flood one night. We are only Human right?

  • landman41
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Ah exscuse me....trends in the landscape business? Pleas elook my way....yes me the Brad Pitt look-alike:) Would I fit as your trend in the business? (Maybe I could pose for January in the Horticulture calendar?)

    Oh wait! Were not talking about needing the next spokesmodel for LD are we? :)

    My -5 cents
    Neil

  • Gardener
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Sounds like this is an opportunity ... If Gardening gal writes an article that is viewed by many it could be a chance to get some good information out there.

    Gardening trends..hummm.... I have worked retail, wholesale, production, and private estate gardening for the past 18 years. I have really enjoyed comming here to hear the pros chat about what's going on in their areas of expertise.Have had a few laughs along the way. I have finally decided to jump in and give my 2 cents worth.. I've been kind of busy....

    The days of market packs are comming an end as I see it. I hope not, but I can see it comming. I work for a lone wholesale greenhouse (in the winter) that employes 16 women to hand plant seedlings..a dying art. I wanted to learn how they do that before they too become automated. They have 16 weeks to fill aprox. 25 greenhouses it truly is amazing. They sell the old standards in market packs 4-6 plants per pack 12 packs to the flat...$1.59 a pack buy 11 get 1 free (retail).....and sell out early every single year.... year after year. I hope they live forever! They sell out every year...Could that be a sign?
    Most other wholesale greenhouses that I aquire plants from and there are about 5 that I frequent in my area, are going strictly 4" pots..15 to a flat. 15 to a flat is also becoming a thing of the past. Now I see them increasingly being sold 8 or 10 to a flat. I realize profit margin.....plants are started earlier to be bigger more, "saleable" for early spring sales. These are generally the more specaility plants..if the growers have foresight to order their starters of the more unusual varities they too sell out early. Anything "NEW" is snatched up. The consumers get 1 - 4" pot for $2.99 - $3.99..I buy wholesale by the flat..and really have to search for market packs If I don't buy early they are gone, could this be a sign?

    Combination hanging baskets everywhere...why?...Instant satisfaction...instant little garden. Many growers are doing a very good job at it too. If we could get them to do the same with containers.. happy customers....more sales....and they don't have to be 20" containers some people are just searching for a combo of 3 different plants that look nice and are reasonably priced. A 12" or 15" container I know will grow better but give some choices on the inexpensive side for the beginners..they may just pop it in the ground and suprise us all by not killing it! .

    As far as the homeowner..they just want their yards to look nice and are willing to pay for it and nice healthy plants. I have seen homeowners at the garden center spend 500 dollars at one stop and not think twice even though they can't tell the difference between a pansy and a petunia, and don't know doubble impatients are not mini roses for full sun. There are always the gardeners who know what they are looking for and buy very specificly. Mostly the average homeowner just wants nice looking BIG plants with lots of color...you've heard it a million times "color Sells" well it does and it will. And all the plants look so lovley comming right from the growers don't they?....The garden centers are faced every year with hiring part-timers to look after all the plants that stream into them durring the course of the season all 3 months of the season...because we all know the money is made in that short window of opportunity. In my area anyway. So as the season goes the plants become more stressed from..lack of water, too much water, lack of food, neglect, otherwise know as burn out of garden center employees. Customers are turned off and head for the nearest BIG BOX retailer to buy them cheaper. Even though they look bad there too, at least they are CHEAPER....

    Why are there so many mow, blow, and go, schomes springing up? In my area the housing industry has just exploded,as in many other areas. The low intrest rates have afforded more people to build, put in ponds , you name it. But... try to find a qualified landscaper in my area and you are on a waiting list untill late next year.

    I am a private gardener with seven clients. They have large properties and all are professionals, with no time to do regular maint. on their properties. They want the well manicured look but do not want to pay the lanscape TEAM to come with 1 qualified quy and 4 college students to prune their 25 year old boxwood shrubs with an eletric hedge trimmer,cut down perennials before they have a chance to grow, and pull up their campanula as weeds, and so on. That's IF you can find a professional landscaper with a team willing to do Maintainence...most know the big money is in instalation.....and there's plenty of that to go around. A word to the wise to lanscapers doing all that instalation ........"SERVICE AFTER THE SALE". If you don't have a maintainence Crew to offer your clients then train some... or your good name will turn bad...I have seen it a many times. 4-6 weeks after the landscaper's job is done and the weeds start to come. The homeowners ask the landscaper to come back and ...sorry too busy with instalation.....Landscapers they are telling all their friends.... I turn down work every single week..I can see the growing trend to hire maintinence gardeners. I can tell you I have said no to maintaining many new clients this year...why? I like to work alone and have all I can handle... I do not mow, and I do not mulch. They hire other professionals for that.
    The newest trend here is mulch being blown into beds with a blower system...not really new...Corporate offices with their own lanscaping crews have been doing it for years. Homeowners are opting for it now.
    I am strictly planting, prunning, edging, weeding.... And of course all that goes with that, planning, buying, watering, spraying, containers, etc....

    This is not a resume, but I have read time and time again, the professionals, who say the degreeless are not professional. I have worked my way up the dirty ladder of the horticulture industry and feel I am as qualified as
    the rest with degrees, and maybe more than some, but...having said that...I am constantly educating myself on new introductions, practices, and keeping my pesticide license up to date. In this ever chaning industry you are never too old to learn something new...and things they are a changing.
    Perhaps the days of the Private Estate Gardner.... like in the old south are making their way up north.
    Landscapes everywhere will be better for it!
    That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

  • Ron_B
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    After all that hard work your story is probably not the only thing you are sticking to.

    It used to be that people wanted one service for everything around the house, I wonder if that situation has changed. I certainly don't offer a broad spectrum of activities myself, but don't know if I am able to get away with this because the market is different now or if I'm working a niche that has been around a long time.

  • gardeninggrrl
    Original Author
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Just wanted to pop back in and say thanks for all the really great information, a lot of which confirms that which I've seen as a gardener and which I've heard from talking to people in the industry or reading about what's going on. But, there's also a lot that's new to me, and very interesting, so thank you!

    And these reports are read by not only a lot of people in the industry, but Mintel reports are often quoted in the mainstream press, from the AP to the Wall Street Journal - so yes, all your points will definitely be heard! :-)

    GG

  • Ron_B
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    >Gasp!

  • mich_in_zonal_denial
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    My viewpoint comes to this subject as a landscape designer practicing in Northern California who caters to the moderately affluent to the very affluent .

    My clientele is interested in creating outdoor entertainment areas that are an extension of their home.

    In an area where multi-million homes may sit on a mere 1/3 acre lot and the weather is condusive to almost year round outdoor living , people are looking to invest in their quality of life by investing further into their real estate.

    Out door living rooms complete with masonry built fireplaces, all weather - upholstered furnishings, year round outdoor kitchens complete with pizza ovens and resort like swimming pools and spas are keeping the landscape architectural industry busy in my 'hood.

    These young affluent families are also investing heavily in their children.
    Actually, when I sit down and listen to these clients describe their wish list , it is their children that seems to drive a lot of where they put their landscaping dollars.
    They want a safe , interactive and inspiring yard for their kids to play in.
    Five thousand dollars is about the average cost for a play structure which then has to have the appropriate amount of surrounding softscaping so that it blends into the landscape.

    After all the hardscaping is in and the planting is to begin, most of my clients tend to be focused on their long term maintenance and water budgets .
    In an area where the monthly water bill can easily reach over $1000.oo for a family of 4 with 1000 square foot lawn or less, attractive looking drought tolerant plant species is of prime consideration.

    The people who I work for are more apt to go to their local professionally run family operated nursery or local farmers market ( which is very chic here ) rather than Home Cheapo.
    They will gladly pay for a custom planted 'combination basket' because it affords them with immediate gratification and they don't have to spend their valuable spare time 'trying' to put together a nice looking floral composition.

    As far as horticultural trends, well here in trend setting California big bold textural foliage plants are in.
    The tropical look is still in because it goes with the resort like hardscaping , but textural savory succulents are making a distinct showing.

  • Cady
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    laag,
    Yup, you nailed cause/I nailed effect concerning unskilled "landscapers" and the appearance of skilled garden maintenance services. It is the natural outcome of this disturbing trend toward Any Joe Blow slapping a decal on a truck and calling himself a landscaper/landscape designer.

    Off topic - has anyone noticed the appearance of unsolicity links in their posts? I just noticed that one of the words in my first post of this thread (the word "garden" in the second paragraph) has been turned into a link to a GardenWeb sponsor - some aquatic supply business. I did not make that link, and have nothing whatsoever to do with that business. Very disturbing. Another iVillage "trend"?

  • Ron_B
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Yes: we're all getting links inserted into our posts.

  • bruceNH
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Tracking cookies, I have to scan for spies every time I visit GW!

    Has anyone else noticed this?

    New gardening trend? Sophisticated marketer's tracking unsuspected gardeners?

    Tasha, at least your honest and ask, good luck with your research.

    Bruce

  • Garrickza
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Trends over here in the very large garden centres: these mega garden centres are developing into a cluster of symbiotic businesses with the original nursery owners usually still running the nursery as well as leasing out sites and structures to all the ancilliary businesses. These ancilliary businesses include restuarants, pet shops, florists,landscapers offices, water feature/irrigation specialists, lawnmower centres, outdoor furniture shops, barbeque requisites shops, swimming pool centres and indoor decor shops. Some have also developed wedding chapels and reception halls and conference centres.
    One major GC has open air as well as covered theatres for live classical music or theatre productions.
    More in the nursery section of these GCs the trends are to have large areas where landscapers create show gardens such as at a garden show. The emphasis being on giving the customers solutions and ideas/inspiration. The theory being that one does not pack all the different pots in one area together but have the pots artfully arranged with appropriate plants already in the pots. Call it practical merchandising or a form of dumbing down for blonde customers (oops ... sorry - no offence meant.)
    In smaller nurseries (like mine) trends are towards more water-wise planting, use of more indigenous plants ( you term these native plants - we avoid the term like the plague due to unpleasant connotations.)Also the trend is to stock a much wider selection of plants than previously but less of each plant , which means one has to order more frequently and monitor stock levels more frequently.

  • Cady
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    That's a very interesting trend. Wonder whether that will happen in North America. The garden center/sales nursery I work for branched out into a big operation. They now have two "campuses" - one for retail, the other is re-wholesale and serves only those in the trade. And, the latter also has more than just nursery and bedding stock, they also have contractors' supplies and large equipment rentals. It was a visionary move by the owner, and I suspect that others will try copying that approach of diversifying.

  • SeniorBalloon
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    The double underlined words can be gotten rid of. When you roll your mouse over a link there is a "What's this?" link. Click on the link and in the message there is a link you can click on to opt out of the ad program. It uses cookies to do this so if you delete cookies the ad will come back.

    Sorry I don't have any trend info, though I am concerned about how water restrictions and fear of invasive species will affect gardeners and the business in the future.

    jb

  • gardeninggrrl
    Original Author
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Just wanted to thank everyone again for the inputs. It's interesting - there seems to be a dichotomy in the industry in a way, in that on the one hand you have people buying the cheapest stuff they can get at the Big Box stores, and on the other spending tons of money to get professional help. Then there are those who spend so much time growing things from seed or tracking down unusual flowers and new cultivars (like all the hoopla over the Meadowbrite coneflower), vs. those who want it all as maintenance-free as possible. It sounds to me like quick/easy is becoming the driving force in the gardening landscape (no pun intended!); some get that by paying little for easy-to-grow flowers, others by hiring professional help or buying pre-planted containers and such. Heirloom tomatoes, on the other hand, may be all the rage (they've been everywhere in the press this year), but that looks like it's more on the eating rather than the growing side!

    Also, I posted this same question on the market gardener thread, and the one person who replied there asked if I'd be posting the finished report here or if he'd have to buy it. (He also had some interesting points, about how the market is basically undefinable because it varies so much, and I can see his point. Regional differences are huge, not to mention the differences between urban/rural, etc.)

    These reports are usually 100+ pages long, and I'm not allowed to distribute them, but I do try to reciprocate with my industry experts (which is what I consider all of you!) by passing along some relevant/helpful information. We do extensive consumer research for these reports, so perhaps that's something that might be of interest. In any case, I'll definitely try to pass along some info that might be of some use.

    Thanks again!

    GG

  • bonsai_audge
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Just one small thing to insert here... Seems that anything "rustic," "antiqued," "weathered," etc. etc. etc. gets snatched up faster than new Reality TV shows surface. I suppose it could be attributed to mass-production and the desire to have something original and authentic, but it seems pointless when half a million others bought the same "distressed" wrought-iron birdbath from Wal-Mart.

    -Audric

  • Cady
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Audric,
    It's the "Shabby Chic" trend. :)

  • habitat_gardener
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Hmmm...I think a predilection for real quality, even if it's old and weathered, is perhaps more a marker of class (in our so-called classless society) than a trend. A couple decades or so ago, we joked that you could tell who were the wealthiest students at university by their shabby clothes, sweaters with elbow patches and holey woolen coats. One roommate got a chair from home, and it was an old oak swivel chair. By contrast, students from upper-middle-class backgrounds tended to buy new (perceiving "new" as a status marker).

    But maybe the notion of "old" stuff being more valuable than new stuff has trickled down (become a trend), to the extent that new, made-in-china stuff is made to look weathered and antiqued.

    Quality still costs, though, and unique handmade items have a cachet that Wal-Mart can't match. I think that's a big part of the appeal of "fair trade" merchandise from a growing number of companies -- handmade, but affordable.

  • bruceNH
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Using "Shabby Chic" in a contemporary setting is a trend. Having "rustic," "antiqued," "weathered," in a rustic, country setting has been a trend for a very long time.

    I still like Pink Flamingo's and croquet and 1960's metal lawn chairs. The 1960's had a fascinating landscape with very unique garden accessories. The futuristic 60's landscape still fills todays home landscape needs and can add a uniqueness to the landscape.

    jb, my cookies keep reloading!

    Bruce

  • Cady
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    habitat,
    That oak swivel chair example was perfect. The markers of "old wealth" vs. "noveau riche" are just as you say. There's nowhere where it's more evident than here in Massachusetts, where the Boston Brahmin ladies never buy their hats; they HAVE their hats. ;)

  • SeniorBalloon
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Some of the things mentioned here as trends don't seem to really be trends. There have always been people who want maintenance free and there have always been plant freaks. New vs Old as being a sign of wealth is also not new.

    I really think that if you're looking for a trend that will alter the future of the profession look for the things that will restrict your access to plants. And not to toot my own horn, but more to prompt the discussion (as I'd really be interested to hear how these are affecting your professional world today) water restrictions and fear of invasives will have a large impact on what you can buy and plant.

    Bruce, sounds like something is causing you to toss your cookies. There may be a setting that deletes cookies when you close the browser or on a schedule. Check the settings under the Advanced button on the Privacy tab of the IE Options dialog.

    jb

  • bruceNH
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    Energy cost will create new trends. How we grow plants and transportation cost will change the market. Plants that require less energy to grow and local growers that will have the transportation edge may make a comeback.

    Picture this, small nurseries that grow their own finished stock, that require less energy to grow in their region. Think energy cost, think about how competitive you may be able to become by working with the season, growing plants that require less energy to grow, less energy to maintain.

    Picture the fuel cost of the future.

    The trend of opening too early, buying finished material from thousands of miles away may be ending.

    jb, your right, I have been tossing my cookies! Thanks.

  • dabprop
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    I have had a 200% increase in request for my services in just one year.I am also a private gardener,no mulching(large scale) or any mowing.

    I see a time when I too may have to turn down work.Or maybe that will be the time to train/hire others like myself.

  • susanargus
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    In the music industry there is a lot of discussion of the concept of the "long tail," a term that has become a buzzword.

    It refers to the distribution curve of who buys music - the top 40 music CDs sell the majority of the sales in the music industry, and any brick-and-mortar music store can only stock a certain number (say 10,000) CDs, the top 10,000 cds that are the most popular. The number of CDs stocked at a big box store is even more limited, but they sell a lot of those few titles.

    Opposite the big box mentality is the Amazon mentality. Amazon makes a lot of their profit from being able to sell the least popular titles - in a distribution curve, the titles that are way out the "tail" of the curve. These CDs are sold to enthusiasts of the obscure, the unusual, the niche market. It adds up. Being able to sell these CDs that a normal store can't afford to keep in stock means they can make money at the "long tail" and the box store can make money at the short head.

    I'm not a professional, but I see this trend very much ocurring in gardening as well. On the one hand, you have the big box store selling the bestsellers to the popular public, and then on the other, the most successful online retailers know how to sell to a niche market, the "long tail" of special plant enthusiasts or garden enthusiasts who are knowledgable and focused.

  • njtea
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    "I really think that if you're looking for a trend that will alter the future of the profession look for the things that will restrict your access to plants. And not to toot my own horn, but more to prompt the discussion (as I'd really be interested to hear how these are affecting your professional world today) water restrictions and fear of invasives will have a large impact on what you can buy and plant."

    "Energy cost will create new trends. How we grow plants and transportation cost will change the market. Plants that require less energy to grow and local growers that will have the transportation edge may make a comeback."

    I just tuned into this conversation and am struck that these two comments are very prophetic - especially after also reading a thread in another forum regarding Massachusetts prohibiting the import of certain plant materials, some of which many homeowners love because the deer won't eat them, and hearing that gas could go to $4 a gallon before the Katrina mess is cleaned up.

  • laag
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    If 3.99 for premium counts is close enough, it hit here when you were writing your post (Falmouth, MA)

    PS. which plants are restricted?

  • gardengal48 (PNW Z8/9)
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    I see a consolidation of the nursery industry, in much the same manner the 80's and 90's saw a consolidation of the banking industry (my previous profession). It is becoming increasingly difficult for small independent retailers and growers to stay afloat. Fuel costs are a huge factor (all of my vendors were applying surcharges long before Katrina did her damage), as well as basic overhead costs like labor (no one will work for minimum wage in my area, including high school kids and recent immigrants - just too many entry level jobs available), water and power. And plant costs are increasing as well, partially because of patenting and licensing restrictions but also because of the impact of higher operating expenses. And competition is fierce - even grocery stores are offering less common or new plant introductions, often at well below what it costs me to bring them in. My local, high-end grocer had phormiums for sale last week at $9.99 for 6" pots from one of my local vendors (recognized the tagging), barely above and in some cases below their cost. Yes, these are loss leaders that they make up for with other, higher priced, more profitable items and with volume, but it still is competition. Heck - I'd buy the plants from them myself at that price!

    All these factors, together with other, less predictable influences like weather and crop failures make it harder and harder for small independents to stay in business, much less make a profit. Several of the larger retail nurseries in my area are having financial and cash flow problems and a few smaller ones are about to close the doors - it is a tightknit community and the word travels fast. That makes them ripe for larger, financially secure operations to snatch them up.

    It is a tough, competitive market out there and only those who are creative and flexible in their marketing approach, like the product expansion Garrickza refers to, and willing or able to subsist on peanuts for the long haul are going to come out intact on the other end.

  • Filbert
    18 years ago
    last modified: 9 years ago

    I think there's a trend toward more privacy in the form of fencing and evergreen hedges. The need for privacy is driven by ever smaller lots, and the post-9/11 desire for a safe refuge at home.

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