Drive through it, leaves canyons of ice.

I had 52 yesterday--without the rain! Last nite at 1230 it was 40 degrees (which was today's high!), this morning at 10:00 it was 36, just past noon it was in the teens, and now it's 8 degrees! Had a couple inches of snow today, but really not much at all. It's supposed to get down to -8 tonite and up to 10+ tomorrow!

But.......
It's supposed to be back in the mid 40's by Saturday, and almost up to 50 by Sunday.

I think pretty much everybody in the RMG area is gonna get cooled off this time! Even all the way down to Houston it's supposed to be in the low/mid 20's by tomorrow nite. Now for them, that's COLD!

Need to get out early tomorrow to fill up the bird feeders again,
Skybird

Wow, Skybird, 50's in January!

Of course skybird and my weather was ~similar, we had hi 40s F here and yesterday morning woke up to 35ºF. Then the fog rolled in and 45 mins later it was 21º F and this morning on the way to school the crystals on the snow were 1-2 mm long. Very cold and some wind, must certainly be stressing the evergreens and making the animals regret not going to Mexico for winter. We'll see how the overwintering veggies and greens made it, not happy with the coldframe temp this morning...first time below freezing - that's what I get for not going out and warming the water and putting a couple candles in there. :o(

Dan

One comment for those of you that aren’t in the Metro Denver area! If you look up info at NOAA, most of us aren’t going to be as cold as what the predictions they show are! Denver’s "official" weather comes from Denver International Airport—which is halfway to Kansas, and the temps "in the city" are almost always different than they are at DIA. I checked and DIA was down to -16 last nite, compared to my -8, and right now they’re showing +2 compared to my +8. Glad I don’t live at the airport! Sometimes, when others in the metro area are posting their conditions, it’s surprising to see how much difference there can be.

Dan, I had really dense fog for about an hour Tuesday nite around midnite, but it never rematerialized on Wednesday. I was kinda hoping for some of those really pretty ice crystals on the trees and bushes!

I’m really looking forward to getting back up into the 40's by Saturday, and possibly low 50's by early next week. My gas bill has been thru the roof so far this year!

Skybird

It is amazing to me how different our weather is on this side of the mountains. We might get a degree or two above freezing for one day over the next week, but nothing close to 50 here.

Bonnie

Nonetheless, for weather obs I use MesoWest for the temperature, pressure and solar radiation readings, in addition to the 'official' obs, and I recommend finding the ones near you and bookmarking them. That way you can get the true readings of the winds overnight that shredded your new transplants...I also use CoCoRaHS for snow depth.

BTW, the ice from freezing fog is called 'hoarfrost' or 'to rime' and we would get it often in winter in Germany, when the winds from Siberia would blow, and the chain-link fences would be solid after 2-3 days. That's when you knew you didn't want to go outside. Same process as the crystals in your freezer.

[/old weatherman geeky]

Dan

We've actually had high's in the mid to upper 30's the last few days. Almost starting to feel like spring is on the way. Hmmm ... hope I didn't just jinx myself, LOL.

This will come very close to a record high. The Washington coast has had some record warm weather over the last 2 weeks and it has been 10° above normal, here. The last little tiny patch of snow in my yard, disappeared in the morning rain yesterday.

The forecast is for back to the rain tonight & tomorrow - which seldom means much, but it will be the end of the sunshine, I suppose. And, with lots of snow higher, there is some flooding.

As for this sunny day - I was doing repair work inside the greenhouse at mid-day and had to open a vent and then turn on a fan, as the thermometer hit 83°!

Steve

Still, it felt nice enough today that I opened a couple of windows.

On another forum, some one from Southern California was saying that the month long forecast calls for a Pineapple Express setting up for the next 3 weeks. I remember the last one. We got a lot of snow. And rain.

Our snow is gone save for the N-NE exposures and the snow came off the mountains and evaporated before it hit us today. I wouln't mind a few inches to go ride the bicycle around in.

Dan

"Currently, a strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below). Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to be monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expected to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.

Western Coastal and Marine Geology
U.S. Geological Survey
Pacific Science Center "

Maybe 14 - 15 years ago, we had 200% average snow fall over the course of 3 months, and then it rained several inches on top of all that accumulated snow. Right now on my north facing roof, I have a foot of ice covered by a foot of snow. I sleep under the south facing roof....:-) We're dusting off the arm floaties, inner-tubes, and rubber duckies, just in case.

Dan

The only thing I could come up with was the unofficial Standford University blog. The forecast is attributed to the "California State Parks (that made it across the email circuit)" And yet, I don't find it on the CA State Parks website . . . it does show up in a few survivalist lists.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says that the west coast will be getting some "moderate precipitation" in the 6 to 10 day period. Their map shows nothing of a startling nature, especially for Colorado. In fact, temperatures are supposed to be "normal."

Shorter range (3 to 7 days) the prediction is for "a break in the action is due for CA during this forecast. Except fro some modest pcpn MON over the Pacific NW...the focus will shift to the middle of the nation . . ." (I "decapitalized" the text and kept the misspelling).

I don't know . . . you are getting quite a storm now and continuing but I don't see anything horrible in anything NOAA is saying about the future.

Steve

I just don't see where that forecast fits in.

I'll take off the arm floaties. Keep 'em close, just in case.

Then it switches back to snow, low tonight of 30º.

With rare foresight, I have a weeks-worth of fire wood stacked just out side the back door.

Still, the likelihood is that a Pineapple Express is on the way at some point. I just hope that is no more than a gentle breeze.

Steve

From the UC office of emergency services or some such agency, likely one of their vendors they hired interpreting NWS statements. At one time I was going to school so I could write those statements, until they trashed the NWS & I got disenchanted...pre-Internets, of course.

THAT is a LOT of energy:

San Juans are in for it. Good fetch. Usually this pattern at this time in El Niño conditions mean less than two weeks for Pineapple Express (PE). Atmosphere is not ready yet but it is reorganizing to that pattern...

If it holds like it is setting up, the PE will be a short one, but strong. It may expend its energy to the south, which means SW Colo, Utah, N Ariz, N NM. Our friends in S CA will be unhappy, but you should think about whether you want to go to Anza-Borrego this year if you have ever thought about doing that. This will likely be a good one for that.

Dan

Today, the mid-atmosphere looks more organized than yesterday and appears to be setting up for a pattern that is most stable and Aleutian Low closer to the coast, but still have a few days yet to be sure - if it happens this way the low will move slowly and we could see a day or two of heavy weather. Maybe Thurs-Fri will be clear. Aleutian Low is very strong and has a lot of energy to expend. Somebody is going to get it, surely.

I'm definitely watching it closely as I have a trip to Seattle coming up, and the Olympics folks watching it closer than me you can bet.

Dan

Another round on Tuesday. And another round next weekend.

I took the kids XC skiing today, and it was fabulous.

(no time stamp, so picture may change, my link was valid 1/27/2010 @ 1200z)

However there is a blocking high off of Europe that is preventing the energy from reaching the continental US, so the low is too far off the coast and the energy is going into the Sitka rain forests rather than WA, OR, or CA. All the planet cares about is equalizing energy so the heat is being transferred. Whether this pattern changes is up to Mother Nature, but it's starting to wind up and transfer the energy into the higher latitudes.

You may also know that the last storms that dumped on the San Juans were extraordinarily low pressure (I thought our barometer was malfunctioning, it was so low for so long), and more evidence of the energy in the atmosphere is evident in the picture above, where you can see a very deep low due north of New Zealand surprisingly near the Equator, which is odd for this time of year. There is a lot of energy in that area that needs to be moved, and the atmosphere created that low to get rid of it.

Will all the energy get transferred up north and not come down our way? Too early to tell. Just stay away from Seattle next week!!

[/anthropomorphizing for clarity]

Dan

I'm beginning to wonder if the 5' snow load that my roof trusses are supposed to hold up will be tested - there's about a foot of ice under a foot of snow near the eves, and the ice is just about impossible to break off.

Dan, we used to have the greatest anthropomorphizing weather guy on the NOAA night shift up in Grand Junction - he really got into it, with fronts "slugging it out" with high pressure ridges, and lows "sneaking in the back door" and so on.

Then he got promoted to the day shift, and the first two of his 4:00 pm weather discussions clearly showed that his professional advance had freed up some serious creative literary juices. They were works of art. Then someone from on high squelched his exuberance. A loss to us all.

Sorry David, that your roof is being taxed, tho'.

That picture looks like you are standing on the moon, Dan, and giving us a run-down! That's really "out there" ! Beyond 28 kilometers, eh?

I'm always snooping along with my nose to the radar map following our usual storm path from Portland running northeast. I need a broader frame of reference . . . and new glasses.

Weather is such a "big picture" issue generally that some anthropomorphizing is very helpful. I mean, I sometimes get disoriented driving 28 klicks from home! My perspective is pretty much crowded down to a coffee table during the winter.

Steve

The roof was drip dripping all night.

Sorry, we were doing kid stuff yesterday afternoon & I was off-line. I was surprised to hear the 1-3" forecasts yesterday, as the low hit the coast way down over SoCal and no evidence of a northerly track, and you see it today over SoNM and making TX unhappy. The old guys who taught me were always skeptical of model runs and relied on patterns and their memories - our forecast meetings always had a question for the experienced forecasters: 'what was your first guess' and much more often than not the first 'guess' was the one that verified.

That said, the next bad boy out there off the coast has somewhat less energy as the one last week, not quite as deep or moist but could have winds that rival last weeks' if it doesn't fill while over water. Folks with animals need to start watching the forecasts closely as they'll start to be vulnerable if these next ~two weeks' worth of storms start to swing up north of Albuquerque and take the spring storm tracks, which should come earlier this year. The Aleutian low looks like it wants to set up too far offshore, and that means the surface lows that come ashore come south and swing up thru NM. So far they've been way south, but as time goes on they move N.

If you are running short of hay and were going to go in a couple weeks, you may want to think about going sooner rather than later if you have room. That's how it looks like it is shaping up today.

Dan