Nancy,
there's no real way to tell.
They can take up to a year to germinate, so don't throw them out...but yes you have to keep them warm and moist, and if the seeds were not FRESH your chances drop dramatically.

WHat species did you buy?

If you do get seedlings, make certain that you STOP keeping them so moist and water more like a regular houseplant of they will damp off and rot.

I ordered some last year. I didn't know you had to soak them first and continously change the water for about 10 to 14 days. I then placed them in a styrofoam take-out food plate with punctured holes (with a pencil, just little holes, about 5), then filled it with about an 1 and a half or 2 with premium pot soil, watered the soil, buried the seeds and waited about 1 month. I actually forgot about it but kept it in indirect sunlighted area, humid and kept it covered with its flip top. Viola, I got one sprout, but then as I dug up, I found about 6 more just opening. I took them out and placed in half/day sunlight. They are about an inch, almost 1 1/2 inches now. I am still careful though and keep a close eye on them. I will keep you posted. P.S. This is my second try. The first...they rotted because I failed to soak them and I just placed them in open starter planters (egg carton type)...They need to be kept humid/warm and covered until they sprout. Check them often. Good luck! I am excited! These plants are amazing in pictures!

Clarification on my previous message:

They were planted with inch to 2 inches of dampened, premium potting soil. I also watered with Miracle-Gro (standard light-mixture of 1 teaspoon/per gallon), right after.

The holes were punctured at the bottom of the flip-covered take out plate which is about 6 inches by 6 inches squared and about 2 and 1/2 inches deep. These plates are white in color. I just covered it with it's fold-flip-lid. After I took the sprouts out, I potted them again in premium soil, but I lifted them out gently with a scoop as to not touch their roots. Left about as much of the sprout exposed while keeping the tiny roots buried. Have been watching their growth carefully. I will keep them in well-drained pot and water often as to not allow the potting soil to dry out.