La Ni�a.

Most likely another cool winter in Fla, and drought again in Texas for next year.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

From what I read --- Water vapor has a lot more influence on global warming (or its absence) than does CO2. So do solar cycles that the sun goes through. Our atmosphere today---If you have a 10,000 seat stadium only 3 of those seats would be occupied by CO2 molecules, the rest by oxygen, nitrogen and other gas molecules. The big Al Gore stimulated hub-bub is over whether CO2 occupies part of a 4th seat and gradually all of it. I was surprised to read that India has huge coal reserves on their Deccan plateau. Both China and India are always building new coal burning plants to generate electric. This nullifies any pissant efforts we make to throttle CO2 output. On top of that the USA is very green green green when you look down from above. Meaning we have more trees, bushes, weeds, grass and farm crops than anyone else and guess what....they are all taking in CO2 and pushing out O2. Despite our sometimes disgusting "living high off the hog" lifestyle we are net contributors of O2 to the atmosphere. Florida is a fine example. We are so green green green you have crews wacking away 24/7/365 at the vegetation just so we don't get inundated by an Amazonian jungle.

We (USA) have huge coal and natural gas reserves (via fracking) that can be made into methanol. We have so much natgas that we might start exporting it soon. The natgas price is way down. If we are lucky we'll get some leaders voted in who will mandate that all new automobiles be flex-fuel to burn methanol too. Right now Zubrin and ex-CIA chief James Woolsey are promoting methanol as the fuel of the future

Here is a link that might be useful: Methanol-- more on it

I doubt we have enough climatological data to make an accurate prediction on what is happening and what will happen in the future. I look at weather models every day and they have a hard time handling what will happen in the next 7 days, let alone the next decade or century. Do I think we are altering the climate? Yes. TO what extent I have no idea. I welcome warmer weather living up here in frozen tundra (20F and clouds right now).

ZANDS-
On the flip side oil has peaked (2006) and production is going to fall if we can't maintain the plateau we are on (see US in the 1970s, AK, Norway, UK, and so on). We are left turning tar into oil (Canada) and digging wells in 10,000ft of water (GOM, Brazil). Natural gas is a very clean fuel, but there is a reason it isn't widely used as a transportation fuel, it has to be compressed and even then you will at best get 200 miles on a tank (see the Honda Civic GX). The population just topped 7 billion with no end in slowing down. With every new mouth, you need to produce more. MSM fails to report on the whole picture, do your own research. Even natural gas and coal will peak and run out in some not so distant future. Our only hope in the future is renewables (solar,wind,hydro,geo) and nuclear power (plenty of Uranium, PU, Thorium to last a LONG time).

franktank,
Forget renewables. We need to do more fraking and drilling. When we eventually screw up this planet, FSM will just create us a new one...

Hot dam*, we could turn the planet into a freakin' Venusian hell and the deniers would still be talking about sunspots and that Al Gore and the scientists with ulterior motives and their 'unproven theories'--otherwise known as 'physics'.
P.S. Forecasting long-term climatic trends is much EASIER than forecasting day to day, and week to week micro changes (otherwise known as 'weather').--That should be obvious, no?--Oh, I almost forgot, this is America and science is a heresy.

phocvu - hit 33 officially here in Palm Springs last night. My mangos near the water (pond) were fine and I covered hastily some others up late in the evening. The only thing that appeared to get hit were the Mexican Papaya - leaves just on top look wilted - rest of plant fine.

They predicted high 30's but of course with micro-climates it changes from yard to yard here. My neighbor down the street had frozen sprinkler water on his truck and frosted banana leaves....I so CAN'T trust ANY weather prediction once they speak of lows around 40...just can't....

You know how you can tell when you walk outside mid-evening and that chill in the air just feels so foreboding even though no frost was predicted? THAT was last night......

mangogrrrrrrrrrrr

njoasis is right, forecasting climatic trends is much easier and close to very accurate. Knowing if we are going to be in a weal/moderate/strong La Nina or El Nino is very predictable. These forecasts are based on current climatic conditions, not "guessing" like some weather forecasts.

With that being said, we are entering a La Nina winetr which should strengthen and be very similar to last winter.

Rob

it just seems colder this year, because the last few years 80's for christmas wasn't that uncommon.

i've just never seen forecast of mid to high 30s for orange county especially around the coast.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-winter-20112012/55890

Frank

Windmills are a disaster. I like them but they only run as long as the gov't subsidies are streaming in. When
the subsidies and tax breaks end the owners abandon them.

Is this the UK's most useless wind turbine? It cost �130,000 in subsidies last
year... to raise electricity worth just �100,000

'Green' debacle: Tens of thousands of abandoned wind turbines now litter American landscape

Solar is cool but still can't compete with conventional electric generation. It
is only on when the sun shines while natgas and coal can be burned at any time
to make electricity.

I don't know if oil production has peaked. They are drilling like crazy up in
North Dakota. I believe using the same horizontal fracking technology that has
vastly increased estimates of American natural gas reserves. Our coal reserves
can last us a few hundred years. Make that coal and natgas into methanol to run automobiles.....
it will happen anyway when oil prices get too high. Compressed natural gas is
great for busses, trucks and fleets like UPS. But the average person is paranoid
about driving a car with a potential bomb as its fuel tank. What happens in
accidents?ÃÂ

I don't like nuclear power due to what Wilhelm Reich would say about deadly
orgone. To make nuke power we are concentrating elements that nature wants to
see dispersed. I would never live near one. Yes Thorium is a better idea than
uranium for nukes.

I don't see anything wrong with Canada exploiting its tar sands and us buying
that oil. Many seriously green eco people are urbanites in denial about what it
takes to make the comfy lifestyle they enjoy just as much as everybody else. The
more prominent and wealthy ones like Tom Friedman and AlGore live in huge mansions with
huge carbon footprints. They jet around all the time. They don't practice what
they preach

We had a frost advisory the last two nights in San Diego. Early this morning, one of my thermometers read 30C and the other thermometer read 31C but I didn't see any frost. I did throw frost blankets on some of my Mangoes and Papayas.
Simon

I had frost in my roof and my vehicles Monday morning my thermometer read 38F. The last two night 40 and 42F. It was 72F today and overnight lows back to normal for the next 10 days. I miss the rains from the last two Decembers....I hope they start up soon.

JF

I do not want to get into a big debate over all that climate stuff.

these are just my opinions:

Al Gore, is not a scientist, no more than Morgan Freeman, yet one made a documentary on global warming, and the other a series on the Universe for the discovery channel.

Al Gore didn't just "make up" the global warming theory, this was spoken about as far back as the 1950s.

I believe the REAL debate should be, whether GW is man made, or natural. or maybe even both. we do not need scientist to tell us things are warming up.

deserts are spreading rapidly, you can now traverse the arctic ocean, and Glacier national park, doesn't have glaciers anymore.

The thing is, deserts have been spreading ever since the last Ice age. but things are speeding up now.

so in my opinion is Global warming is real, and is natural, BUT is being sped up by humans.

people seem to get confused between local weather and global climate. and erroneously think that global warming means that local temps will never get cold.

statistically we are only talking about a +0.8 degree increase in the average worldwide temperatures over the last few decades.

the normal local weather cycles will overshadow the perception of any change in global climate.

all that aside, things like La Nina, and El Nino, have very predictable influence on weather, La Nina last year, for example" made for a dry Texas and a wet Australia

One more thing before i leave this topic, I do agree with some that Carbon Tax, and Credits, do nothing to fix the problem.

But lets say for arguments sake that ALL global warming is 100% a natural cycle, Its STILL a good idea to stop pollution, irresponsible practices have some corporations contaminating our rivers, water table, lakes, air and oceans. The global warming debate is just a distraction from the bigger and more immediate problem.

anyway, worse come to worse, maybe I'll just get some land in Greenland, and start planing mangoes up there :)

It got to 30 here in Houston this morning!!!! ACK!

All trees either covered or in garage, all are fine.

We had a low in the 39f range at my house...and sunny highs the last couple days about 58-60f. My readings range and so do the official stations all over town. But,thats the jist of it here in the east S.F. bay area. So far White Sapote is both flowering AND has larger ripening fruit. Suebelle is very reliable here.

What ever happened to human caused "Global Cooling" and fossil fuels causing us to go into an ice age?

Yeah. That was the popular subject back in the ole days(70's) before Global Warming....

One thing is for sure is we should really look at the fact that any planet that nearly even resembles earth is outside our reach. Is it really a bad idea to cut back on pollution? I never understand why people justify polluting the planet? And since were talking politics, why not throw this one in.. Im pretty sure GOD isnt gonna clean up the pollution either! (In case we have any Religious Anti-Environmental Fans)

Geez Phuc, look what you've done... lol
It's ridiculously cold last couple days for us, or just me, i'm a total wuss for the cold. Frost every morning for the last 4 :(

Tim

It's warm and pleasant during the day, low 70's but the nightlows are 8-10 degrees below normal (38-42F). The good news is we are getting some precipitation starting Sunday about 2". I hope it keeps raining all the away until Feb. then we wouldn't have to worry about frost.

JF

I agree with Tim. This was a bad idea. haha

"(In case we have any Religious Anti-Environmental Fans)"

pj1881 With all due respect, but when is not believing in man-made Global Warming have to do with being a God-loving person?....
How does believing in God have to do with being a polluter?...

For your information, I'm a God-loving Catholic and I like having a clean environment. I hate seeing trash dumped on the side of the roads, in the canals, etc...

Sorry if I sounded harsh, but how you wrote your comment, like the quote I took from your message, didn't sit too well with me.

"Climate change" (a.k.a "global warming") will not be treating everyone equally. The most northerly regions were predicted to feel it first and most dramatically (and they ARE). Biggest surprise so far is how fast climate change is occurring in the high (arctic) latitudes.--How these changes translate to changes further south, remain to be seen. No, it may not be the end of the world (don't expect it to be). While subtropical areas of Florida have been experiencing RECORD cold in the past two winter, the high arctic has been RECORD warm during the SAME winters. Is this the new norm or a transitional stage--who knows! Weather in many areas does seem more extreme and less predictable lately. Just read an analysis somewhere predicting much cooler than normal summer conditions in California until sea surface temps in the Pacific catch up with more rapid warming in more interior continental regions of North America. PS., Hell no, I am not moving to Greenland--no matter how hot it gets. I am settling for my Date palm and citrus grove in NJ--not such a bad deal. :) Happy Holidays!

^Try buying some pitted dates, wrap them in bacon and bake them in the oven. It's very tasty. :-)

Stan

I'm jealous of your Subelle mine did not flower last year or this year, what is going on???

JF

oh, i'm not a climate change denier.

it's just easier to bring up al gore's name then you know who.

but it's just basic science, more heat- more evaporation--more rain. if it's really hot somewhere, then it will be really cold somewhere else. it's just that i finally decided to plant some of the sapote and apple sugar in the ground, then this frost thing comes.

@tropicalgrower89

I dont assume that all Religous people are polluters, but I have had discussions with several people who have been led to believe the God they worship will never allow the earth to fail. And then have met others that respect the planet because of the gift their God(s) have given them (e.g.- Native American Indians) There is no denying the climate changes are happening a lot faster than they should, the ice caps are a good example of that. We have only been polluting this planet for a couple hundred years. In that time we have nearly de-forested the planet, eliminated thousands of species of animals and plants. We have created Nuclear energy, and the combustion engine, millions of chemicals that didnt exist in nature, and really dont do much for the planet in return. All I am saying is that its time that we all should starting looking down below our feet instead of up in the sky.. or at least both ways ;)

My place in SW Florida has seen hotter high temps the last few summers, and colder hard freezes the last few winters. I think weather extremes are with us for a while. I have no idea whether this is due to long-term global climate changes. I do know that I hate it, especially every time an eighty-degree week is followed by a twenty degree freeze and messes up my supposedly zone9 friendly fruit trees.