Um, that's from a Peruvian "state committee"? Take it from the folks who know best.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml ... and download their weekly ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) update.

"Chance of El Niño is 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and reaches 80% during the fall and winter."
(updated last week)

But maybe Peru knows something that we don't?

Interestingly, Eastern Australia is just as worried about El Nino, but unlike for us, for them it means a serious drought.

Well, if we don't continue to get a break from the drought up here in the Panhandle, you can just about write a bunch of us off. The moisture we have received the last 2 months has been nothing short of miraculous and saving grace for those of us who have cattle - albeit we only have a few, but they like to eat, too. I think we have gotten something like 10" which is about half of what our yearly rainfall should be. For the first time in 3 years, I have not had to put out round bales for over a month. The newspaper article at the link tells it like it is. Pray for us up here.

On a happier note - meet Liberty, born late evening July 4th. Red (yeah, real original) gets a well deserved back rub. Liberty had just been born when we pulled up in the pasture.

Mary

Here is a link that might be useful: Ogallala drying up

Yep, I'm certainly not arguing with the need for rain. Just with the idea that El Nino is looking like "a bust". Us folks in central Texas have it bad enough, but you folks in the Panhandle must be at your wits end.

Now, I have to say that your pasture looks pretty green. Nice place for Liberty and Red to be hanging out. Is that from recent rain?

Dan, yes the weeds are growing from our rains over the last 2 months. The pastures will need to have continued adequate moisture for the grasses to recover. Grass is still very short in our pastures. You really have to look for it in the back 2 pastures and in the 2 small traps. The front pasture looks better because the Beefalos like to eat the weeds better than the grass. It is estimated that recovery could take 2-4 years if we continue to receive adequate rain or if we go into a worse level of drought, root structure of native grasses will probably be destroyed.

Here's positive thoughts for a great El Nino year. Will only ask for no flooding... :-)

Mary

Joe Bastardi ( of weatherbell) said ALL spring that this would be a mild el Niño. He pu-pued the super el niño buzz from the very beginning. I think he said that the warm water would back up from the coast pretty quickly. he said that the warm water had a pool of cool water under it making it a shallow mass.. Looks like he is right again. I think he did say that it would continue into fall out further in the Pacific and disappear in the winter. It all bears watching.

weather bell uses historical comprable patterns from years past to look for future forecasts.

Here is a link that might be useful: Easy clickable url of Midlothian's

Mary, thanks for the lovely photo! We're glad the panhandle has gotten some rain.

Dan,

You might want to look deeper into what I just posted. That website covered this subject deeply covering several sources, not just NOAA. Last time they predicted El Nino, it was very short lived and a weak one. Didn't they predict longer lasting and stronger one for that one too?

I had my doubt when they predicted a strong El Nino because of what I've read for the past 10 years, it just simply does not compute with me because of current cold phase of PDO...

The comments are very interesting and some of them very knowledgable.

I love the one that talks about with all the satellites , computer analysis, water sampling buoys ands computer models in the modern era, it all comes back to the anchovy harvest. LOL

What El Nino? We're still in Severe Drought here, so I'm not agreeing that El Nino has even happened until the drought is gone. This NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlook doesn't look like anything is going to get any better in the next few months.

Here is a link that might be useful: Seasonal Drought Outlook